Once safe Liberal seat of Aston won by Labor in 2023 byelection

A once in a century Labor victory in a long-held Liberal seat spells disaster for Federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

Peter Dutton’s hopes of retaining the Liberal-held seat of Aston have been smashed by a shock win to Labor.

At 8.16pm, ABC election analyst Antony Green called the seat for Labor candidate Mary Doyle, who is on track to make history. The Labor candidate secured a swing of 6.5 per cent in early counting.

Liberal Party candidate Roshena Campbell conceded defeat soon after, with one strategist musing that local perceptions of “nastiness” within the party may have contributed to the upset.

At around 9pm, a grim-faced Dutton emerged, admitting it was “a tough night for the Liberal Party”.

Candidate for Aston, Mary Doyle has won the Aston byelection. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Luis Ascui

It is a once in a century victory for Labor, delivering the rare outcome of an incumbent government securing a seat from the opposition.

The by-election was described by Labor as “a referendum” on Peter Dutton with the campaign focused on the Liberal leader.

Currently the ABC computer is at 99.9999% probability of a Labor win in #Aston#auspol

— Antony Green - elections (@AntonyGreenElec) April 1, 2023

Liberals labelled ‘nasty’ party

Strategist and pollster Tony Barry told the ABC coverage that what was coming out of the research was concerns the Liberal Party was “nasty”.

“Anthony Albanese is the chief spokesman for the Voice and at the moment his stocks are high. When the messenger is a good product it helps the message,‘’ he said.

“Opposing it, I think, is potentially a bit of a booby-trap for the Coalition. Not to say that there aren’t legitimate concerns about it but the perception from the electorate, the assessment, might be well, it is just the nasty party.

“The nasty party has come out of our research.

“Now it is, they are just a bit nasty. They have lost the brand of economic management.”

Liberal candidate took seat after string of controversies

The Liberal candidate Roshena Campbell was parachuted into the seat after former Liberal frontbencher Alan Tudge resigned after a string of controversies.

Worried Liberal MPs said Friday night they were still hopeful that postal votes could erode the Labor lead.

Early figures at 8pm Saturday suggested Labor was on track for victory.

“We always knew it was going to be close. Obviously early figures aren’t what we wanted to see,” Liberal frontbencher Dan Tehan said.

“The early figures aren’t great. I’m still hopeful. The early indications make you a little nervous.”

Ms Doyle secured a big swing when she ran at the last federal election against Mr Tudge.

The ALP said early swings were from booths in the north of the electorate with a large proportion of Australians with Chinese heritage who were strongly supportive of the new Albanese government.

“This was not the night Peter Dutton was hoping for,” Labor frontbencher Richard Marles said.

“The results are encouraging but there’s still a long way to go.”

Liberal party candidate Roshena Campbell campaigning earlier today with Peter Dutton. Picture: David Crosling

Earlier, former Victorian Liberal state president Michael Kroger said he was confident the party would hold the seat.

“(Federal opposition leader Peter) Dutton is respected. Roshena Campbell is an outstanding candidate,” he said.

But by 8:15pm he conceded only a miracle could see the result be retained by the Liberals.

Both Ms Campbell and the Labor candidate live outside of the electorate.

By 8:49pm the Liberal Party candidate Roshena Campbell had conceded defeat and contacted Ms Doyle to congratulate her on the victory.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed that he had spoken to Ms Doyle to congratulate her and would now travel to Melbourne in the morning to visit the electorate.

The PM has congratulated Mary Doyle for the stunning victory. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Luis Ascui

‘Underdog’: Mary Doyle’s victory speech

A triumphant Ms Doyle took to the stage amid wild scenes from supporters and an introduction from Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles.

“You guys, wow,” she said.

“I am Mary Doyle. I’m a Suburban mum and I’ve lived in the outer eastern suburbs for more than 35 years and as of tonight, I guess I’ll be your next Member for Aston!”

Amid wild applause she thanked her family, volunteers and supporters.

“I think even our most optimistic true believers knew that I was the underdog in this campaign,” she said.

“What we were trying to do hadn’t been done for 100 years. And Aston hasn’t been Liberal since Sinead O’Connor’s Nothing compares 2 U.”

Mr Marles said Ms Doyle had delivered the Labor Party a victory for the history books.

“So soak it up. Not since the 1920 Kalgoorlie by-election has a sitting government won a seat from an opposition in a by-election. But tonight, Mary Doyle has done just that,‘’ he said.

“We are going to work tirelessly to see our recognition of our First Nations people through a Voice to Parliament referendum later this year and when that happens it will be one of the great unifying moments for our nation.”

‘Sad’ result for the Liberal Party

Liberal frontbencher Jane Hume said it was “a very sad result” for the Liberal Party.

“Roshena Campbell is, was, is such an extraordinary candidate, a professional woman who has a migrant background, articulate, apathetic, sympathetic and just exactly the kind of person we want to run for the Liberal Party,” she said.

Dutton conceded there was ‘a lot of work ahead’ after the loss. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Luis Ascui

“This was not our night, that’s a terrible shame but I don’t lose all hope.

“There was not baseball bats out for the opposition, certainly not baseball bats after the government either, but I don’t think that those cost of living pressures which were the number one issue we were hearing about when we were out there speaking to the residents of Aston, I don’t think people are associating the cost of living pressures they are feeling with the Albanese government.

“There are always a number of issues that come into play in a by-election in particular, a retiring member who was quite popular, he took the margin up to be under 10%, and it came down at the last election, and probably swung back even more than the national average but he was still a popular local member so we have a new candidates with no name recognition.

“Mary Doyle was already out there from the last election so she had higher name recognition, she had already spoken to a number of electorates, so that played a big part in a government is still in its honeymoon period and that still is playing out.”

‘A lot of work ahead’: Dutton

A grim-faced Peter Dutton emerged just after 9pm vowing to listen to the message that the voters of Aston had sent to the Liberal Party.

“It’s a tough night for the Liberal Party and our family here in Victoria,’’ he said.

“We have a lot of work ahead of us to listen to the messages sent to us today from the people are Aston. But listen to them we will.”

Ms Campbell said she wanted to give her profound thanks to the people of Aston.

“Tonight was our night. But our country needs a strong opposition,” she said.

“I want to thank Peter Dutton for his support and leadership during what is a very difficult time for our party. I want to thank my political hero John Howard for his support during this campaign.“