Offshore wind generation failure

The failure of Victoria’s offshore wind projects means more regional onshore developments and transmission lines.

Victorian government plans to build 9GW of offshore wind projects is falling apart, which risks more onshore developments in regional Victoria.

The Victorian government’s plan to get nine gigawatts of wind-farm capacity built off the state’s coast is falling apart, putting farmers at risk of more onshore developments and transmission lines to offset the loss.

Three offshore wind developments have already been abandoned — the 1.5GW Seadragon project off the coast of Ninety Mile Beach, the 0.5GW Vic Offshore and 1.1GW Southern Winds projects located off Portland.

Even the massive 2.2GW Star of the South project is still preparing an environmental effects statement, despite having completed five years of scientific and feasibility studies.

Last year federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek even rejected a Victorian government proposal to build a renewable energy terminal at the Port of Hastings, which was to be a base to build wind turbines before they were taken out to sea.

Centre for Independent Studies energy research director Aidan Morrison said: “We’re seeing (offshore) projects cancelled left right and centre, because they’re too expensive.

“Offshore wind developments cost at least twice as much as those onshore.”

Yet despite the high costs and uncertainty the Victorian government’s renewable energy planner, VicGrid, has incorporated 9GW of offshore wind development in its recently released transmission plan.

VicGrid’s assumes 500 offshore wind turbines, with an average capacity of 18MW, will be built from 2032 to 2040 to generate 9GW of capacity, equivalent to eight Loy Yang B power stations.

VicGrid’s plan also factors in 5.8GW of onshore wind farm developments, equivalent to 970 much smaller 6MW turbines.

However, if Victoria’s 9GW of offshore generation fails to materialise and is pushed onshore, the number of wind turbines that will need to be built across regional Victoria swells to 2470.

VicGrid was asked if a shortfall in its offshore generation target meant more transmission lines and onshore renewable developments, but failed to answer the question, simply stating it would be regularly reviewing its plan.

Victorian Energy Policy Centre director Bruce Mountain said the Victorian Government large targets offshore wind targets “pre-suppose significant demand growth”.

“(But) both demand growth and the challenges and costs of offshore wind are uncertain,” professor Mountain said.

“There has already been a large increase in offshore wind costs relative to expectations when the policy was adopted.”

He said wind development off Victoria’s coast “now depends crucially on federal government support (and) much remains to be discovered”.

Originally published as Offshore wind generation failure