‘Why Victoria?’ Experts weigh in on state’s fourth lockdown

Experts are divided about why Victoria continues to see Covid outbreaks that lead to lockdowns. A demographer has debunked one theory.

It is the question on the lips of Victorians in lockdown: “Why us again?”

It’s an important question given the southern state has been locked down far more than any other state or territory and is currently enduring an extension to its fourth lockdown since the pandemic began.

Victoria’s deadly second wave led to more than 800 deaths.

One of Australia’s leading epidemiologists, Professor Mary-Louise McLaws, attempted to answer that question earlier this week.

“You look at what behaviour is used by the virus to spread and the geography,” she told the ABC.

“The difference between Melbourne and Victoria or, say, NSW is that you’ve got really great public transport. People can get around really easily or walk or pushbike. We can’t do that in Sydney.”

RELATED: Victoria records three new local cases

Victoria is in day 7 of a 14-day lockdown. Picture: Sarah Matray/NCA NewsWire

She continued, noting that differences in population density and sociability had played a role in helping the virus spread in Victoria.

“You’re very hyper-connected socially. Your city has younger people than Sydney has and they like to go out or they’re unemployed and they need jobs,” Professor McLaws said.

“They’re young, and it’s that sociability and it’s that ease with which people can get around Melbourne where it can spread rapidly.

“And you’ve got a very well-connected migrant group and they are at risk as well … they live together and they support each other.”

But Dr Liz Allen, a demographer from the Australian National University, sees things differently.

In a thread on Twitter she shared on Wednesday, Dr Allen wrote that experts and politicians have attempted to answer the question by looking at “transport, age, jobs, migrant population”.

“When considering virus outbreaks, population characteristics and behaviours are crucial,” she wrote.

“The data doesn’t support the suggestions that population and behaviour differ – Vic and NSW aren’t all that different. In fact, the data points to NSW being at greater ‘risk’.”

She said Sydney has a similar migrant population to Melbourne, Sydney is more densely populated than Melbourne, Sydneysiders use more active transport than Melburnians and severe overcrowding is a bigger problem in NSW than in Victoria.

Is Victoria younger than New South Wales? No, median age and age distribution among the working age population (most socially interactive) aren’t all the different. https://t.co/Bg5friYXBupic.twitter.com/rcR23JoPLa

— Dr Liz Allen (@DrDemography) June 1, 2021

Are there more migrants in Victoria versus New South Wales? No, the proportion of the population born overseas is similar in NSW to that in Vic. https://t.co/Xu82YOWXt3pic.twitter.com/VRYui4CSnM

— Dr Liz Allen (@DrDemography) June 1, 2021

Is Melbourne more densely populated than Sydney? No, ‘Sydney had the largest combined area in the high and very high density classes (193 km²), followed by Melbourne (77 km²).’ [Syd vs Melb maps] https://t.co/CjPfkTHoyTpic.twitter.com/33u6roKcMq

— Dr Liz Allen (@DrDemography) June 2, 2021

Do people in Melbourne use active transport (public + bike + walk) more than those living in Sydney? No, Sydneysiders have the highest rate of active transport use in the country. https://t.co/c47NvDfNXepic.twitter.com/8YLrOeUz7q

— Dr Liz Allen (@DrDemography) June 2, 2021

Do people in Melbourne travel around more than those in Sydney? No, the data doesn't support that based on travel to work information. [Syd vs Melb mapping of net flows of journeys to work] https://t.co/3tLL1Nzxzgpic.twitter.com/JhHQBMfHlG

— Dr Liz Allen (@DrDemography) June 2, 2021

Host of the ABC’s Coronacast podcast Dr Norman Swan had a simpler explanation for why Victoria continues to be locked down.

“You can’t compare what’s going on now to last year,” he said earlier this week.

“One leak in hotel quarantine coming into a state that now has world-class contact tracing.

“What it is, is bad luck. And what NSW had three or four weeks ago was good luck.”

Victoria is in day seven of what is now a 14-day lockdown after authorities expressed concern about the way a new Indian variant of coronavirus was spreading around the community.

There were just three new local cases recorded on Thursday from more than 57,000 tests.