Victoria coronavirus: Andrews dismisses ‘modelling’ claiming peak cases till to come

Victoria’s health officials have dismissed reports of modelling that claims the state’s case numbers could hit over 1000 a day.

Victorian government health experts have dismissed reports the state’s case numbers will reach more than 1000 a day by mid-August, saying “no one in the government has seen it”.

It comes after a a report in The Australian claimed Victoria could see more than 1000 people test positive by August 16 according to secret modelling, with cases topping 1000 for eight days before tapering off.

It suggested the state could still see more than 300 daily cases by mid-September, when Melbourne’s stage four restrictions are due to be wound back.

However Victorian Premier Dan Andrews shut down the report on Thursday, saying: “Calling it ‘modelling’ might not necessarily be the most accurate term. But the bloke who’s in charge of the modelling has never seen it. No-one in the government has seen it.”

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Police officers and soldiers patrol in Melbourne. Picture: William West/AFP

Victoria recorded 725 new cases of coronavirus (pictured) on Wednesday. Picture: AFP/NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Head of the COVID-19 ward at Austin Hospital in Melbourne, Professor Jason Tribiano, said this morning he was “hoping the modelling is wrong”.

Despite that, Prof Tribiano told Today the hospital would be ready for a peak of more than 1000 cases a day and was in a good position to scale up its level of care.

“It’s the numbers we don’t want to see and we hope always the modelling is wrong to be perfectly honest but certainly as a hospital we’re prepared for that,” he told Today.

“We’ve got a system where we can scale up our services. Our ICU, our wards and our staff are ready to deal with the wave when it comes. We’re just hoping the modelling is wrong.”

Victoria recorded 725 new cases of coronavirus yesterday and 15 deaths, both records for the state. A man in his 30s also lost his life to coronavirus yesterday, the youngest in Australia to die from the virus.

Premier Dan Andrews speaks to the media after Victoria recorded a record number of cases and fatalities. Picture: William West/AFP

Victoria is also battling thousands of cases with unknown sources with contact tracers working day and night to figure out how 2280 Victorians caught the virus.

Health Minister Greg Hunt also commented on the modelling this morning, warning people that Victoria’s cases “weren’t going to disappear overnight”.

“I’ve always been very careful on making predictions. What I do know is this, that those large numbers of cases are not going to disappear overnight,” Mr Hunt said.

“We will have a difficult period and these cases will not just suddenly disappear and anybody who says that I think will be doing a grave disservice to Victorians.

“We’re going to have to go through the most difficult period in our history, arguably the most difficult period because these restrictions are unprecedented. People being locked in their houses by day other than for an hour or for shopping or work, people being locked completely in their houses overnight.

“It is like nothing we’ve ever experienced and we say it’s difficult but this is something that will help us save lives but we’ll we have to get that tracing down so it’s every case, every day, every contact.”

Epidemiology chair at Deakin University Professor Catherine Bennett yesterday told news.com.au “don’t be thrown” by the record 725 cases.

Prof Bennett pointed out that as authorities follow up the close contacts of those in known clusters, there were bound to be more cases discovered.

“We have to be prepared to still see more fluctuations,” she said.

“But if the new cases are linked to known clusters then that’s telling us these are already at some level of containment.”

Public health officials are hopeful the strict measures imposed in Victoria – including mandatory mask wearing and an 8pm to 5am curfew for Melbourne locals – will cause a dramatic drop in cases.

Federal deputy chief medical officer Dr Michael Kidd said he expected a rise in cases before Victoria began to flatten the curve again.

“Given the upward trend of infections in Victoria over past days, the number of reported cases today is not a surprise and reinforces the importance of the stage 4 restrictions in Melbourne and the expansion of the stage 3 restrictions in the rest of Victoria,” Dr Kidd said yesterday.

“I hope it won’t be the case, but it may be that the numbers will go even higher over the coming days before they start to come down as a result of the impact of the restrictions and the changes in behaviour among the population.

“Everyone in Victoria must be following the restrictions in place. While we continue to see such high levels of community transmission in Victoria, this poses a risk to everyone in the state and especially to older Australians and people with chronic health conditions.

“Every time we have hundreds of cases being reported in a day, we know we will see more people being hospitalised and the risk of more people losing their lives to COVID-19.”