Premier’s rail plan could double in cost to whopping $100 billion, opposition says

IT IS Australia’s most expensive rail project. But a Facebook post from three years ago is undermining the massive $50 billion project.

THE devil is in the detail, and Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews’ plan to spend $50 billion revolutionising Melbourne’s rail network doesn’t have much in the way of detail.

It’s a problem heading into an election in November where voters are being asked to take the government at its word that the plan to build the Suburban Rail Loop “stacks up”.

The bigger problem is that the premier’s announcement was undermined by his own previous pledge to run such projects by independent body Infrastructure Victoria.

In a 2015 Facebook post that resurfaced on Tuesday, Mr Andrews promised to “take short term politics out of instrastructure planning” by consulting the experts who would, in turn, “consider the needs of the whole state” and not just the sitting government.

A 2015 Facebook post by Premier Daniel Andrews appears to conflict with yesterday’s announcement.

But he didn’t do that during the 12-month planning period prior to proclaiming on Tuesday he could single-handedly deliver Victorians the “biggest public transport project in history”.

It’s an oversight that did not go unnoticed.

Premier @DanielAndrewsMP on @abcmelbourne radio now with Jon Faine, who asks what’s the point of Infrastructure Victoria if they don’t assess projects like the new rail loop? #springst

— Richard Willingham (@rwillingham) August 28, 2018

So Infrastructure Victoria had no say Labor's $50bn marketing campaign? #springst

— Michael D. (@mickofbeacy) August 28, 2018

Why plan to spend $50 B project when the people supposed to "take short term politics out of infrastructure" didn't mention it?

Start it in Melb's South East, when @infravic say rail there won't reach capacity by 2046?

What was the process?#springst (From @infravic 2016) pic.twitter.com/PE7iY64ANt

— Rafael Epstein (@Raf_Epstein) August 28, 2018

“no business case, no benefit-cost analysis, no account of how the patronage projection was derived, and no explanation of how the $50 billion was calculated. As is customary, the idea hasn’t been endorsed by the government’s independent adviser, Infrastructure Victoria, either” https://t.co/vAW10EAkmP

— James Healy (@jim_healy) August 28, 2018

The bold plan as it stands is to build 90 kilometres of new trackwork, 12 new stations and an airport link.

The loop, Mr Andrews said, would cut out the need for travel from suburban centres through the city before connecting to other lines — a longstanding bugbear for commuters.

It would start near Cheltenham in Victoria’s southeast and travel all the way to Werribee, 32 kilometres southwest of the Melbourne CBD.

Along the way, it would link through new stations at Clayton, Monash, Burwood, Glen Waverley, Box Hill, Doncaster, Heidelberg, Bundoora, Reservoir, Fawkner, Broadmeadows, Sunshine and Melbourne Airport.

Mr Andrews said the project would create 20,000 jobs, take thousands of cars off the road and service 400,000 commuters every day — but it wouldn’t be ready by 2050 and work wouldn’t begin until 2022.

The proposed $50 billion underground suburban rail network linking every major rail line in Melbourne. Picture: AAP

Victoria’s Shadow Treasurer Michael O’Brien said “Swiss cheese has fewer holes” than the government’s plan.

“Remember Daniel Andrews said Infrastructure Victoria would ‘take the politics out of infrastructure’ and prevent dud, last minute plans for projects?” he tweeted.

“(We’re) 88 days to the election and he announced a $100 billion train line for 2050 that’s never been seen by (Infrastructure Victoria). Cynical. Hypocritical. Daniel.”

He elaborated on those comments when speaking to the media.

“The fact that even their own numbers have a range of $20 billion demonstrates that this proposal was cooked up in the premier’s media unit rather than in the offices of Infrastructure Victoria.”

But the Premier insists the plan is not a pipe dream.

“It will get you where you need to go, wherever you live — and that’s what our growing state needs,” he said.

“We’ve spent the last 12 months … doing the hard work to determine whether this project makes sense.

“Does it actually stack up? The answer is yes, it does.”

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has some selling to do before November. Picture: Juliam Smith/AAP

Transport Minister Jacinta Allan tried to downplay concerns about the project’s timeline, telling 3AW breakfast host Neil Mitchell that “2050 is not that far off” and “these big projects take time”.

She said it was urgent work that needs to start now given Melbourne’s population is expected to reach 8 million by the time the first train on the Suburban Rail Loop is proposed to leave Cheltenham.

News.com.au readers were divided by the proposal. Some said it was about time, while others lamented that it came “20 years late”.

John Mauger wrote “this is a joke”.

“What will they pay for it with? It seems that nothing is too much for the People’s Republic of Melbourne and its Premier.”

Rubens Camejo said it was “utter madness”.

Overcrowding on Melbourne trains is not a new thing. Commuters pictured here gather on the platform at Flinders Street.

“I cannot for the life of me comprehend the fixation of all levels of Australian governments being inclined to approve digging tunnels to solve public transport problems as well as digging them for roads. It quadruples and more the cost of those projects by using those methods.”

But others loved the premier’s vision. Stephen Liddicut called the proposal “gutsy”.

“Finally a government prepared to take a long-term view in accommodating real needs a growing metropolis. Visionary thinking. Who’d have seen that coming when a template for mediocrity is what most politicians reach for these days.”

Chris Byrne said the announcement “makes me happy”.

“I’m a realist and understand it will take many years in stages to build it, not to mention a lot of money.

“But at least a government is actually looking beyond the next election at what this city will need, not waiting until it’s so desperately needed that it becomes a mad and costly rush.”

What do you think of the idea? Let us know: Email [e-mail] or find me on Twitter @ro_smith.