Leading epidemiologist says Victorian lockdown may be extended

A leading epidemiologist has said why she believes Melbourne’s lockdown may be extended, as the state battles the spread of the virus.

A leading Australian epidemiologist says Victoria’s lockdown may be extended further than a week, as the state battles to contain a spread of the highly-infectious Indian variant of coronavirus.

The state is just two days into a circuit-breaker lockdown to prevent it from plunging into a potential third wave.

Victoria recorded five new cases on Saturday, as people lined up for hours at vaccination hubs across Melbourne desperate to receive the jab.

But questions remain about how long a lockdown will be needed to stop the spread.

A man crosses Melbourne's usually busy Bourke Street Mall as the city's residents returned to a seven day lockdown to curb the spread of the Covid-19 coronavirus. Photo: William West/AFP)

“I believe the authorities now have a lot of experience, they want to ease you into an idea (a seven-day lockdown) is going to have to happen, and towards the end of that, they may actually look to see if they might need to extend it for another incubation period,” said epidemiologist Mary-Louise McLaws.

“A seven-day lockdown probably would've been okay, had it been fewer cases. But I’m hoping that you don’t have to extend to another seven days.”

Professor Mary Louise McLaws says the lockdown may be extended further than seven days. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

The number of exposure sites has risen to more than one-hundred, with now around 15,000 people at risk of having come into contact with the virus.

The number of active cases in the state now sits at 45.

Authorities said the current strain in Victoria, linked to a hotel quarantine failure in South Australia, was highly infectious, and had a much faster transmission rate than previous strains.

The virus has been transmitted within 24 hours compared to five days with previous outbreaks.

A shopper looks at the empty toilet paper shelves in a Melbourne supermarket this week, as the city's residents returned to lockdown. Photo: William West/AFP

Speaking to ABC News, Professor McLaws said the current strain was highly transmissible but didn’t make people as sick.

“It’s wise to be careful and it’s wide for people to go and get vaccinated as soon as possible,” she said.

“We probably won’t hear about more cases for a while, but I expect an uptick.

“In (Sydney’s) northern beaches where there was an outbreak it took six days to get to 30 then it continues because it’s a very close community.

“The same thing happens in Melbourne – it’s a city that’s easy to get around and sadly it is easy to spread.”

When announcing the lockdown this week, Victoria’s chief health officer Brett Sutton said he didn’t know how long the lockdown would last.

“Seven days is like a billion years, it's really tricky to look ahead that far,“ he said.

“We just need to follow one day at a time.”

chief health officer Brett Sutton said he couldn’t say if the lockdown would be expanded. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Paul Jeffers