Coronavirus Victoria: Chief health officer won’t declare COVID-19 peak

Victoria’s chief health officer says COVID-19 modelling “doesn’t predict the future” and will not say cases have “definitely passed the peak”.

Victoria’s chief health officer says he “will not make a declaration” the state has passed its peak of COVID-19 cases despite recording 295 new infections - 237 less cases than Monday’s record figure.

Professor Brett Sutton said they “absolutely” have to keep watching the numbers every day.

“There is both the modelling that we need to help make informed decisions about what additional interventions might be required, or whether we carry on with the settings, the policy settings that we have, but there is the real numbers every day that we have to watch as well,” he told reporters on Wednesday.

“You cannot make assumptions on modelling. It doesn’t predict the future.

“There are important insights that you can gain from the modelling, the kind of range it tells you, about where you are headed, but you cannot say we have passed a peak. There is nothing else to consider here. We have to watch the numbers every day.

“So I certainly wouldn’t say we have definitely passed the peak.”

Prof Sutton on Monday, when 532 cases were announced, said modelling suggested it “should be the peak” of daily coronavirus case numbers.

“Modelling with our effective reproductive number that I have seen most recently suggests that today should be the peak,” Prof Sutton told reporters.

“Now I’m not going to sit back and say today is the peak. We have to see what happens in coming days. But driving that effective reproduction number down below one is the thing that will start to see numbers drop. And as numbers drop, outbreaks drop.”

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There are thousands of active cases in Victoria. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews today confirmed 295 new cases of COVID-19 – the lowest daily total since early last week.

However, he was also sad to inform the community that there had been nine more coronavirus fatalities.

“There are 307 Victorians in hospital, 41 of those receiving intensive care,” he said.

At his daily press conference on Wednesday, Mr Andrews was asked: “There are at least two healthcare workers in ICU. How concerning is that?”

He replied that healthcare workers are “the last line of defence” against COVID-19.

“This wildly infectious virus, this deadly virus,” Mr Andrews said.

“If, like me, you value the work they do, if you’ve been honoured and privileged in your life – whether it be as a minister, as a premier, as a husband, father, our son – to see the work of our nurses and doctors and paramedics, cooks and cleaners, ward clerks, orderlies.

“If you value that, the best way to thank is to wear a mask. To only go out for what you need when you need it, to keep your distance, to wash your hands, to do all these simple things.

“These simple things save lives, these simple things will get us through this quicker and it will see less people, less of those heroes in intensive care, less of those heroes sick.”

Mr Andrews said these actions are a way for the community to say thank you to the workers.

“Words can’t express how powerful the contribution that these people make is every day, words can’t express their compassion, their care and their courage and I thank each of them,” he said.

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MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – NewsWire Photos JULY 28: Paramedics wearing PPE prepare to transport residents of Epping Gardens Aged Care to hospital. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Andrew Henshaw

The state’s death toll is 92 of 176 nationwide.

As of last night, the combined total of deaths for all other states and territories was 84.

Mr Andrews said there were two deaths of people in their 90s, five in their 80s, one in their 70s and one in their 60s.

Seven of the nine deaths are related to private aged care. As of Wednesday, there are 804 active cases linked to the sector.

New coronavirus cases last dipped to 300 on Friday and below that number on July 20 when 275 were confirmed.

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Victorian chief health officer Prof Brett Sutton on Monday said modelling suggested the state should have reached its peak but made no promises. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Sarah Matray

Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Wednesday said the situation “particularly in recent days and weeks in Victoria for aged care has been very distressing”.

“It is very distressing first and foremost to the families of those who have loved ones in aged care facilities. The most vulnerable in our community have always been our highest concern when it comes to managing the health issues associated with this pandemic,” he said.

Mr Morrison described the situation as a “Victorian wave”.

“It is clear that the Victorian wave that Australians are now experiencing, that’s how I honestly have to describe it, there’s not a second wave that’s going across the rest of the country, that is not occurring.

“There is a significant Victorian wave but that Victorian wave is impacting the national economy more broadly.

“We’re seeing that in the payroll data – that is the most, one of the most timely datasets we see on employment. It is affecting other states.

“We’re also seeing that on things like table bookings at restaurants and in states that aren’t affected by COVID in the same way that Victoria has. So that’s what I mean when I say Australia wins when Victoria wins.”