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Melbourne real estate: Where to buy in 2023, according to the experts

Affordable areas with good public transport links and burgeoning infrastructure will be smart buys. SEE THE EXPERT PICKS.

The two-bedroom unit at 234A Jetty Rd, Rosebud, is for sale for $580,000-$638,000.
The two-bedroom unit at 234A Jetty Rd, Rosebud, is for sale for $580,000-$638,000.

Affordable areas with good public transport links and burgeoning infrastructure will be smart long-term investments for buyers, despite difficult conditions continuing in 2023, experts say.

Developing fringe areas of Melbourne around Melton, Garfield and Bunyip in the southeast, as well as suburbs in Bendigo, Ballarat and Geelong have strong credentials.

Leading real estate experts say buyers should consider public transport and travel time to the CBD, as well as planned local infrastructure, when assessing potential purchases next year.

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Four-bedroom family homes with a “lifestyle element” including a pool or outdoor entertainment area, and perhaps an added study, are also expected to remain popular.

The property market is tipped to remain in buyers favour with similar conditions to the past few months before potentially balancing out in the back half of 2023.

Garfield and Bunyip on the fringe of Melbourne’s southeast were among the top areas with the most potential buyers per listing, in suburbs where house values have increased over the past three months, a metric used by PropTrack to pick its suburbs to watch of 2023.

The three-bedroom house at 13 Rivendale Cres, Drouin, is for sale for $580,000-$620,000.
The three-bedroom house at 13 Rivendale Cres, Drouin, is for sale for $580,000-$620,000.
The four-bedroom house at 8 Jubilee Lane, Aintree, is for sale for $800,000-$850,000.
The four-bedroom house at 8 Jubilee Lane, Aintree, is for sale for $800,000-$850,000.

Barry Plant chief executive Mike McCarthy also flagged the corridor including Berwick, Pakenham, Bunyip and Drouin as a good bet for first-home buyers, to families and investors.

“Pakenham hasn’t missed a beat … there’s good infrastructure, it’s on the metro train line. It’s a good place to buy or invest — Pakenham is rock solid,” he said.

“Drouin and Bunyip are great areas for families, there’s land all around them and still proximity to the city and reasonable infrastructure too.

“The current rental return out in Drouin is as high as 6 per cent, which is a hell of a return for investors, so you can get a good rental return while you wait for capital gains to kick in during the next phase of the property cycle over the next few years.”

Mr McCarthy also celebrated the City of Melton for is affordability and future infrastructure, and Craigieburn in the north.

The three-bedroom house at 12 Verdant Ave, Ardeer, is for sale for $650,000-$700,000.
The three-bedroom house at 12 Verdant Ave, Ardeer, is for sale for $650,000-$700,000.
The four-bedroom house at 6 Glengarry Place, Craigieburn, is listed for $765,000.
The four-bedroom house at 6 Glengarry Place, Craigieburn, is listed for $765,000.

Advantage Property Consulting director Frank Valentic championed the middle ring west and north as offering the “best bang for buck”, selecting Ardeer, Thomastown, Reservoir, Sunshine West and Fawkner as his top picks for first-home buyers.

“First-home buyers are still going to be active and strong, when people make a decision to get out of the rental cycle they still want to get out and buy their first home,” he said.

“These are suburbs generally where you can get in under $750,000, which is the ideal point because of stamp duty savings, and that end of the market will probably be the strongest.

“With less competition, it’s a good chance to get in and in the middle ring they can hopefully still get a house or a townhouse.”

Mr Valentic expected the shift to lifestyle elements — both at home with a pool, entertaining area and study — and to areas like the Mornington Peninsula and Surf Coast to continue.

The three-bedroom house at18 Jamison Park Drive, Kangaroo Flat, is for sale for $425,000-$465,000.
The three-bedroom house at18 Jamison Park Drive, Kangaroo Flat, is for sale for $425,000-$465,000.
A one-bedroom apartment at 25/231 Dandenong Rd, Windsor, is affordable at $250,000-$275,000.
A one-bedroom apartment at 25/231 Dandenong Rd, Windsor, is affordable at $250,000-$275,000.

Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee said city apartments were a good bet for investors, with students returning and the CBD “a fun place to live again”.

She said apartments in Rosebud and Windsor also had strong credentials.

While regional Victoria is also dipping as the Melbourne market does, the 2026 Commonwealth Games is expected to provide further boost in the years to come.

Mr McCarthy said suburbs like Kangaroo Flat in Bendigo, which also featured in PropTrack’s list of suburbs to watch for units, were clever areas to look at.

“Kangaroo Flat is the city side of Bendigo, it takes about 20 minutes off the trip to Melbourne. There’s a train station there or it's a 1.15hr drive to Melbourne,” he said.

“There’s pretty good value there up to $750,000 for first-home buyers, plus the benefits of a tree change, particularly with Commonwealth Games infrastructure starting to ramp up there. There will be a big legacy.”

PropTrack economist Paul Ryan said cash rate decisions early in the year would be central to what happens to the property market, which would begin similarly to recent months.

“When the RBA meets in February it will have updated inflation data for the December quarter. We expect maybe one or two more interest rate rises and that we’ll continue to see prices fall over the start of the year,” he said.

“Migration and rental demand will continue to grow and be really strong next year and these factors could stabilise prices and perhaps push them back up in the second half of the year.”

Property Home Base buyer’s advocate Julie DeBondt-Barker said there was “a bit around” for first-home buyers and it was more the $1.2-$3m range that “was a bit light on”.

She said apartments had become “a bit more popular” and buyers could potentially do well because it was a competitive market with a lot of them for sale.

Ray White’s Nerida Conisbee.
Ray White’s Nerida Conisbee.

Melbourne suburbs to watch in 2023

House

Rank, Suburb, SA4, Potential buyers per listing, 3 month % growth in AVM, November 2022 AVM

1, North Melbourne, Melbourne – Inner, 119, 0.5%, $1,339,000

2, Flinders, Mornington Peninsula, 115, 3.8%, $3,682,000

3, Garfield, Melbourne – South East, 56, 1.8%, $818,000

4, Cranbourne South, Melbourne – South East, 52, 1.4%, $843,000

5, Bunyip, Melbourne - South East, 49, 1.1%, $871,000

Unit

1, Kew East, Melbourne – Inner East, 79, 2.8%, $958,000

2, Beaumaris, Melbourne – Inner South, 74, 1.3%, $1,248,000

3, Ripponlea, Melbourne – Inner, 71, 2.1%, $595,000

4, Frankston South, Mornington Peninsula, 71, 4.3%, $715,000

5, Balaclava, Melbourne – Inner, 69, 2.6%, $620,000

Regional Victoria suburbs to watch in 2023

House

1, Quarry Hill, Bendigo, 57, 1.0%, $614,000

2, Trentham, Ballarat, 57, 1.6%, $1,002,000

3, Nichols Point, North West, 50, 1.3%, $769,000

4, Ironbark, Bendigo, 45, 2.6%, $568,000

5, Maiden Gully, Bendigo, 43, 0.1%, $826,000

Unit

1, West Wodonga, Hume, 32, 2.4%, $358,000

2, Bendigo, Bendigo, 24, 0.2%, $454,000

3, Morwell, Latrobe – Gippsland, 21, 0.1%, $329,000

4, Ballarat East, Ballarat, 15, 3.9%, $437,000

5, Kangaroo Flat, Bendigo, 15, 4.6%, $426,000

Source: PropTrack

The suburbs with the most potential buyers per listing that have had house/unit values increase over the last three months – so essentially where prices are still rising and demand is strong. We’ve provided the top five for each capital city and regional area for both houses and units.

*** AVM is PropTrack’s Automated Valuation Mode

FRANK VALENTIC’S PICKS

FIRST-HOME BUYERS (UP TO $750,000)

Ardeer

Thomastown

Reservoir

West Sunshine

Fawkner

Rosebud

Capel Sound

Geelong

Ballarat

Bendigo

FAMILIES ($750,000-$2m)

Thornbury

Balaclava

Seddon

Northcote

Ascot Vale

Dromana

McCrae

Torquay

Safety Beach

Mt Martha

INVESTORS

Reservoir

Preston

Parkdale

Mentone

Mitcham

Frankston

Dromana

Rosebud

Mornington

Geelong

NERIDA CONISBEE’S PICKS

FIRST-HOME BUYERS (UP TO $750,000)

Epping

Mildura

Rosebud (apartments)

Windsor (apartments)

Buninyong

FAMILIES ($750,000-$2m)

Balwyn North

Altona

Torquay

Ivanhoe

Patterson Lakes

INVESTORS

Melbourne CBD (apartments)

Mallacoota

Box Hill South

Melton

Geelong West

MIKE MCCARTHY, SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE

Melton

Aintree

Brookfield

Rockbank

Thornhill Park

Kurunjang

Pakenham

Drouin

Berwick

Bunyip

Craigieburn

Kangaroo Flat, Bendigo

Flora Hill, Bendigo

Sebastopol, Ballarat

Wendouree, Ballarat

Ballarat Central

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scott.carbines@news.com.au

Originally published as Melbourne real estate: Where to buy in 2023, according to the experts

Read related topics:Melbourne

Original URL: https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-real-estate-where-to-buy-in-2023-according-to-the-experts/news-story/0c7a6e63c26f6916d350875025ba4465