Inala and Ipswich West voters head to the polls to replace Annastacia Palaszczuk, Jim Madden
Former Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s shock resignation sparked the by-election in Labor’s safest seat.
New Queensland Premier Steven Miles will face his first major election test on Saturday, with two by-elections in what are usually safe Labor seats, including the one vacated by his predecessor Annastacia Palaszczuk.
The by-elections in Inala, the state’s safest Labor seat, and nearby Ipswich West will be held a day after a new poll delivered a blow to Mr Miles.
The latest Newspoll, published in The Australian on Friday, shows the LNP under David Crisafulli is on track to oust the three-term Labor government at the October 26 state election.
The poll shows the LNP is now eight points clear of Labor, 54 to 46 per cent after preferences, a swing against Labor of 7.2 per cent and a loss of 18 seats. The LNP needs to win a net 13 seats to secure a majority in the 93-seat parliament.
Ms Palaszczuk’s resignation from the state’s top job – giving Mr Miles 10 months to make his mark before the election – sparked the Inala by-election, which will coincide with the Queensland local government elections.
Ipswich West voters will also be deciding on Saturday who they want to represent them in state parliament after veteran Labor MP Jim Madden decided to put his hand up for council.
Mr Miles conceded this week his government is expecting a substantial swing against the Labor Party in both electorates on Saturday.
“As we know the LNP have done that really tight deal with One Nation, there are no candidates in the race preferencing us and we certainly are working very hard to win but we are expecting to see a very large swing,” Mr Miles said.
Political scientist and UQ lecturer Adam Hannah told NCA NewsWire the Labor and LNP will be looking at the two by-elections a “little differently” to each other.
“By putting the two results together you might start to see a sense of what to expect for the government at the October election,” Dr Hannah said.
“The premier is talking down Ipswich West to lower expectations.
“If there is a big swing, especially if they lose the seats, then we start to see there’s two data points that there’s potentially a problem for the government.
“They tend to not to over read two by-elections for something that’s coming up in October unless it’s unexpectedly positive for the government.”
More than 10,800 electors had already cast their votes in Inala at pre-poll while 9100 in Ipswich West as at 5pm on March 13, including returned postal votes.
INALA
Inala, the safest seat in Queensland with a 28.2 per cent two-party margin to Labor, became vacant following former Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s formal exit from politics on December 31.
Dr Hannah said it wouldn’t surprise him if there was a “decent double digit swing” against Labor.
He said Inala was now facing an election with “unknown candidates thrown into the mix”.
“Because you had the premier in that seat, obviously the premier has universal name recognition among voters,” Dr Hannah said.
“It’s possible there will be a swing against Labor.”
Eight candidates are vying to win the seat which represents a multiculturally diverse community and 38,923 enrolled voters as of February 5.
Labor have put forward Margie Nightingale – who becomes the first party candidate to not have the surname Palaszczuk since the electorate was formed in 1992.
The former premier had succeeded her father Henry Palaszczuk as the Inala MP at the 2006 election.
In a rare public appearance since her retirement, Ms Palaszczuk was spotted spruiking the Labor candidate last Saturday, in a bid to show support.
Dr Hannah said having “unknown candidates thrown into the mix” means Labor is entering unknown territory in Inala despite having such a stronghold on the electorate.
A recent example of a by-election in a former premier’s seat was in July 2023 after Mark McGowan’s shock retirement.
Despite Labor securing the win, the party saw the primary vote swing of 33 per cent against it after the popular premier stood down.
Dr Hannah said he didn’t expect to see such an extreme swing in Inala on Saturday.
“You might see a similar dynamic but probably not to the same degree,” he said.
“The WA situation is different given the scale of the state Labor election and personal popularity of Mark McGowan.”
Ms Nightingale is a former staffer in several Labor offices, including local Labor councillor Charles Strunk, federal Labor Speaker Milton Dick and his brother, state Treasurer Cameron Dick.
The LNP is hoping their candidate Trang Yen will be able to create an upset, with the Vietnamese woman hoping to sway residents to vote for her.
Ms Yen worked in the public sector for 28 years.
IPSWICH WEST
The state’s second by-election was called after Labor MP Jim Madden departed in January following his announcement he was running for the Ipswich City Council.
Wendy Bourne will run for Labor in Ipswich West against the LNP’s Darren Zanow.
While Labor currently have a 14.3 per cent stronghold on Ipswich West, it could all come down to preferences on the day, with One Nation’s candidate Mark Bone preferencing LNP at the ballot box.
Dr Hannah said One Nation will play a big part in Saturday’s by-election given Ipswich West has been the party’s “heartland since its inception”.
“You might get a really strong One Nation vote … which would signal problems for the Liberals as voters will for opt for third party instead,” he said.
“It won’t necessarily stop the LNP winning seats because most One Nations voters will preference the LNP but there could be just generally a degree of frustration with the major parties.
“We’re seeing this trend in both parties across the country, with the Greens winning inner city Brisbane or the Teals in Melbourne.”
Melody Lindsay is also running for the seat representing Legalise Cannabis Queensland.
With the Greens not standing a candidate on Saturday, Ms Bourne will need to secure more than 50 per cent of the primary vote to secure the win.
There are 39,162 voters in the electorate heading to the polls on Saturday.
Before his resignation from parliament, Mr Madden had won the seat in 2020 with a 14.35 per cent margin.
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