Hanson’s party will win seats, but will it stay together?

ONE Nation is hoping the Queensland election marks its return to power. But it’s been in this position before. And it all fell apart.

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, who hit the campaign trail with the ‘Battler Bus’ earlier this month, hopes she’ll be partying like it’s 1998 after the results of tomorrow’s Queensland state election. Picture: Dave Hunt / AAP Image

ANALYSIS

Pauline Hanson hopes that on Saturday night she will be celebrating like it’s 1998 again.

Nineteen years ago, two years after she was elected to Federal Parliament for the first time, the now-Senator Hanson watched as her One Nation creation muscled its way into the Queensland Parliament.

But she had to make the most of the occasion because in a year, it was all over.

Like a cheap glass dropped on to concrete, One Nation shattered when it came into contact with the reality of politics.

Its MPs were sent flying into political oblivion or fleeing to newly-created parties. Just one of them stayed in office beyond 2003, with most disappearing at the 2001 poll.

Two of the bigger questions pushed to the surface by the Saturday election in Queensland are: Will One Nation repeat the success? And, if it does, will One Nation hold it together?

Will Senator Pauline Hanson and One Nation relive the glory days of the 1990s with polling success at the Queensland state election? (AAP Image/Mick Tsikas) NO ARCHIVING

It was a huge debut with the party of rebels, mavericks and the outright odd taking close to 23 per cent of the vote — more than either the Liberals or the Nationals — to send 11 of its candidates into sudden and surprising positions of power.

Six of them took seats from Labor, and all major parties braced for a fight for survival.

Queensland is a rich political paddock for One Nation because it is Senator Hanson’s home state; it is hugely decentralised; it has rewarded disruptive political figures in the past; and it has just one house in its parliament, meaning every member is crucial.

The party will contest 60 of 93 seats. Opinion polling puts its support at around 18 per cent, which is short of 1998’s 23 per cent but by any definition, is hefty.

So while One Nation is set for triumph, possibly even the numbers to decide who governs, the legacy of 19 years ago lingers.

WILL IT SHATTER?

The indicators from the federal party are not good. So far six One Nation members have walked through the doors of the Senate since the July election last year. Now there are just three.

That is extraordinary churn and instability and reflects badly on the party’s candidate selection. The departure of Queenslander Fraser Anning to become an independent also shows Senator Hanson’s authority isn’t all-powerful.

She wanted him to step aside so dual citizen Malcolm Roberts could return to the Senate. He declined. Mr Roberts remains the PHON candidate for Ipswich on Saturday, obviously his second choice.

One difference in 19 years is that this time round there is a leader of political experience in Queensland, Steve Dickson, who learned his basics in more than a decade as an LNP member before defecting to One Nation at the start of 2017.

Particularly, Mr Dickson has all the question-dodging, issue-avoiding skills at his disposal during interviews that One Nation is said to despise in members of major parties.