Vic election exposes new risk for Dominic Perrottet ahead of NSW vote

The Victorian Liberals’ defeat at the polls may not translate to a similar battering for the party in NSW - but it does reveal a new risk factor, experts say.

After consecutive electoral drubbings, Victoria’s Liberal Party is experiencing one of the weakest periods of its long history.

Just months after Melbourne’s record-breaking lockdowns, the Liberal Party had hopes of clawing back a significant number of seats from Labor in the 2022 state election.

But the party performed as badly, if not worse, than they did in 2018, when the Coalition picked up just 27 seats, the Liberal Party holding only 21 of those.

Saturday’s crushing defeat, which has seen Liberal leader Matthew Guy step down, means that across the country, at both a state and federal level, the Coalition governs in only two states - and one expert says there’s a warning in the results that NSW Premier Dominic Perrrottet must heed.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews battered the Coalition for the second election in a row on Saturday. Picture: Asanka Ratnayake / Getty Images

This week, NCA NewsWire consulted three political experts to gauge the implications – if any – of Saturday’s result for NSW’s Liberal Premier, Dominic Perrottet for when he heads to the polls in March 2023.

All agree that while Labor would be encouraged by the Victorian result, it by no means guarantees a Coalition defeat.

Simon Welsh, director at the Redbridge Group, says strong results for the teals in Melbourne’s inner-east spelt trouble for the Liberals in NSW.

“What we saw in the teal seats here in Victoria – Hawthorn, Kew, Mornington – was that even though they didn’t get over the line, they went close,” Mr Welsh told NCA NewsWire.

“That’s showing teal campaigns can work at a local level.”

Simon Welsh, director at the Redbridge Group, says the performance of the teal independents in the Victorian election spelt trouble for NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet. Picture: Supplied

In the seat of Hawthorn, Liberal candidate John Pesutto narrowly defeated teal Melissa Lowe, with the seat called a number of days after the election, while in Kew, the Liberals’ Jess Wilson fought off a spirited challenge from teal candidate Sophie Torney.

Mr Welsh says while the teals claimed high-profile wins in Victoria against Josh Frydenberg and Tim Wilson in May’s federal election, the “spiritual home” of the movement was in Sydney.

“I’d be alarmed if I was Perrottet, in that Victoria has shown that teals can go really close, and teals are stronger in those Sydney seats than in the Melbourne seats,” he says.

Sophie Scamps (Mackellar), Allegra Spender (Wentworth), Kylea Tink (North Sydney) and Zali Steggall (Warringah) are teals elected by Sydney-siders at May’s federal election.

“I’d be worried about that,” Mr Welsh says.

David Hayward, Emeritus Professor of Public Policy and Social Economy at Melbourne’s RMIT University, says while he thought the NSW opposition would be “heartened” by the result, the implications are not dire for Mr Perrottet.

Professor Hayward says the NSW government has a strong track record on infrastructure spending, which proved to be immensely popular in Victoria, and was known to be progressive on environmental issues, protecting its flanks from a teal wave.

“Because the Perrottet government has been quite left on environmental issues through (NSW Treasurer) Matt Kean, it’s going to be interesting to see how that plays out,” says Professor Hayward.

“I don’t know how successful teals will be at a state level,” he says, adding that the Andrews government’s progressive stance on environmental issues also restricts the Greens electorally, who only picked up one seat out of a targeted three.

RMIT Emeritus Professor David Hayward says the NSW government’s progressive stance on the environment would help its chances at March’s state election. Picture: Supplied

“The Coalition probably has a pretty good track record to point to (on infrastructure projects),” he says.

“They’ve spent a huge amount in doing things in a similar way to Daniel Andrews.”

Dr Zareh Ghazarian, a senior lecturer in politics at Monash University, also predicts the teal surge to be significantly weaker in NSW, citing the primacy of state issues such as healthcare in the Victorian election.

“The teals weren't able to win seats in Victoria,” Dr Ghazarian said.

“I think that reminds us of the importance of state issues versus federal issues,” he said.

“The teals did really well at the federal election where integrity and climate change were being debated and were prominent.”

State issues, rather than federal, will decide the fate of NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet when the Coalition faces voters in March. Picture: David Swift

Dr Ghazarian says the Victorian state election was dominated by healthcare, education, public transport and other more local concerns.

“It didn’t favour the teals,” he said.

“The Victorian election reminds us of the importance of local issues.”