Opinion: Tony Abbott’s five point plan has some huge problems

TONY Abbott is back, and his five point manifesto has been making headlines. But as Dom Knight discovered, it’s got some huge flaws.

TONY Abbott is back. After 18 months in the wilderness — or at least Sydney’s Northern Beaches, much the same thing — he’s been clawing his way out of the political crypt for yet another shot at the big time.

Abbott was launching a book yesterday, Putting Australia Right (get it?) but it was his own manifesto that’s been making headlines. He offered five ideas for how the Coalition could win the next election despite their recent drop in the polls.

So, has Tony 2.0 learned from his painful ousting? Let’s take a look at his five point plan and see.

1. “WE’LL CUT THE RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGET TO HELP WITH YOUR POWER BILLS”

Power bills are always a potent touchstone with households, and suggesting he’ll reduce their cost is certainly a better approach to affordability than “get a highly-paid job”. And Tony Abbott’s dislike for renewable energy predates Scott Morrison’s recent accessorising with coal.

The problem is that renewable energy is popular. A poll this week found that 71% of us thought the government wasn’t doing enough with the transition — even after the South Australian blackouts.

People know that wind, solar and other renewables are the future, and that’s why this won’t be a vote-winner.

If Australians all had Scott Morrison’s deep, visceral love for coal, would the industry have needed to pour millions into a slick marketing campaign? Coal is an old-fashioned, outdated form of power — like the monarchy. We may need it for now, but we don’t like it — or vote for it.

Tony Abbott’s five point plan has a few problems.

2. “WE’LL CUT IMMIGRATION TO MAKE HOUSING MORE AFFORDABLE”

The link between immigration and housing prices is straight out of the One Nation playbook. But slashing immigration raises alarm bells for the 43% of Australians who have a least one parent born overseas — and the business sector loves migration because it supplies skilled labour.

So, the economy could suffer significantly if immigration is slashed — which may make housing affordable, but only because people can’t afford to pay their mortgages.

The most meaningful way to tackle housing affordability without tanking the economy is to increase supply, either by building more houses or tightening the rules on negative gearing so investors sell, as a recent study concluded.

The problem is, both measures will drive prices down, alienating the Coalition’s base — so let’s just ignore that and pander to One Nation voters, eh?

3. “WE’LL SCRAP THE HUMAN RIGHTS COMMISSION TO STOP OFFICIAL BULLYING”

The hatred of Section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act is an unquenchable fire in the breast of the far right — but when the Abbott Government previously tried to dump it, practically every migrant community joined together to oppose them. It was politically toxic.

Abbott’s government constantly fought Human Rights Commission president Gillian Triggs — but she’s already on the way out … so his big new idea is to abolish our human rights monitoring body entirely?

How will this win votes? There’s hardly a groundswell of popular outrage about the Human Right’s Commission’s entire existence. Human rights, as a rule, have a pretty good rap in the West, what with their role in opposing tyranny and genocide.

Also, “official bullying”? Is Mr Abbott a tad tender when it comes to criticism? This gripe making its way into his top five means that he can’t wait to resume the ever-tedious culture war.

4. “WE’LL STOP ALL NEW SPENDING TO END RIPPING OFF OUR GRANDKIDS”

Um, Tony. I’m sorry to have to bring up painful memories — but you banged on about “intergenerational theft” last time, remember? The 2014 Budget? The “age of entitlement? and “lifters not leaners”? The public weren’t into it. Or you, as a result.

The budget deficit is a problem, but his government displayed the fiscal discipline of a teenager with a stolen credit card when last in government — why wouldn’t that happen again?

Furthermore, it doesn’t stand to reason that stopping all new spending is the solution. You can increase revenue by making sure that everyone pays their fair share — multinationals, for instance.

Simply vowing to stop all new spending is the kind of simplistic solution people pose when they don’t really understand economics. It rules out smart investments in education and infrastructure that can grow the economy, and therefore the revenue base.

5. “WE’LL REFORM THE SENATE TO HAVE GOVERNMENT, NOT GRIDLOCK”

While the Senate isn’t exactly a helpful legislative partner, this suggestion displays how little Abbott has learnt from his ousting. While comedians have always most enjoyed his decision to bring back knights and dames on Australia Day, it’s the perception that his government was punishing ordinary Australians that cost him the Lodge — or his bed in the AFP barracks.

During his last period as PM, the Senate intervened to scupper many of his most unpopular policies. Are people really going to embrace the prospect of an unfettered Abbott Government? Only around 65% of Australians voted for the major parties in the Senate in both 2013 and 2016.

That means that a lot of us are happy with having a buffer against the government. And while this may make budget repair harder, it’s popular. People doing it tough don’t vote for austerity, in much the same way that turkeys don’t vote for Christmas.

THE #MUTINY STALLS

A few weeks ago, Cory Bernardi split to start a new party, only to discover a grand total of zero colleagues were keen to follow him. Similarly, Abbott’s bold attacks yesterday received a withering response even from Matthias Corman, formerly one of his closest lieutenants.

So even if Tony Abbott hasn’t learned much from the last few years in Australian politics, his colleagues have. Internal disunity is death — it proved so for Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd, and we’re even more sick of it now.

Faced with the realisation that he’d blown his bugle and precisely nobody had rallied beneath it, he backtracked yesterday, pledging his “full support” for Prime Minister Turnbull.

For now, at least. Because like Freddie Krueger, Tony Abbott is always up for another sequel.

Dom Knight is a writer, broadcaster and co-founder of The Chaser. Continue the conversation on Twitter @domknight