Newspoll shows support for voice to parliament falling below opposition

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been grilled on the Today show over a new poll suggesting support for the Voice to Parliament has faltered.

Australians are poised to vote “No” to constitutional change, according to a new poll that suggests Anthony Albanese risks a failed referendum on the voice.

A bombshell new poll suggests that support for the “No” case is growing and has now overtaken support for an Indigenous voice to parliament.

The new Newspoll, conducted for The Australian newspaper, shows that the Yes vote is failing the test of securing 50 per cent of the national vote and majorities in a majority of states.

Male voters and Queenslanders are the biggest barriers to referendum success, while women and younger voters are the biggest supporters of change.

Speaking on The Today Show, Mr Albanese was asked, “Are you worried?.”

“Look, we’ll be out there putting the case,’’ Mr Albanese said.

“It’s hard to win a referendum in Australia. They’ve only been eight referendums passed out of 48, something like that.

“But we’ll continue to put the case for yes. And I’m very, very confident that as people mobilise when the campaign is actually on.You will have the union movement, sporting codes, every one of which have supported the constitutional change. You’ll have faith groups all out there arguing for a yes vote in this referendum, saying If not now, when? We need to get this done.

“It will be a moment of national unity and after it’s done, people will wonder why it wasn’t done earlier.”

Support for the voice has faltered. Picture: Martin Ollman/NCA NewsWire

Labor frontbencher Linda Burney has declared she isn’t looking at polling but is putting her faith in voters.

“This is our one shot in the locker,” she said. “It’s about listening, and it’s about recognising. Do not be fooled by naysayers ... it will make us a nation we can all be proud of.”

But if a vote were held this weekend, Newpoll suggests that the Yes case would fail.

The actual date for the referendum has not yet been chosen but must be held between October and December after the enabling legislation passed Parliament.

There’s some speculation Australians will vote on October 17.

The Prime Minister has repeatedly said that it’s now in the hands of voters.

“Australians will make up their own mind. And I encourage Australians to have a look at the wording that’s put forward, to talk with First Nations people as well,” Mr Albanese said.

“This is a very simple proposition, it’s to recognise Indigenous Australians in our Constitution, in our founding document, and it’s time that we did that. And I believe most Australians will accept that.

“It’s not a complex proposition, it doesn’t change any of the way that we are governed, it just provides for the opportunity for Indigenous people to have a say in matters that affect them.”

Men are more likely to oppose change than women according to the Newspoll and Queenslanders are the most likely to vote “No”.

Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania are currently majority “No” states despite the strong advocacy of the SA Premier for the change.

Victoria and NSW – the two largest states in the nation – are likely to deliver majorities for the “Yes” case based on an aggregated Newspoll of 3852 over May 31 and June 24.

According to Newspoll, the biggest drop in support came from 35 to 49-year-old voters, with a seven-point fall among those who support it – from 53 per cent to 44 per cent.

Men are also less likely to support the “Yes” vote with support falling from 45 per cent a month ago to just 38 per cent.

“Yes” voters are typically those aged between 18 to 34 and university educated.

Women are also more likely to vote “Yes” but even among females support ­remains below 50 per cent.

Newspoll finds that the “Yes” vote has fallen three points to just 43 per cent.

During the same period, the “No” vote rose four points to 47 per cent, the first time that more people are ­opposed to the Voice than those who support it.

Four of the six states now have more “No” voters than “Yes” vote supporters.

Victorians are the biggest supporters of the Yes case with 48 per cent in favour and 41 per cent opposed.

NSW voters are split 46-41 per cent in support of the voice but there’s a big group – 13 per cent – that are still undecided.

Queenslanders are the least likely to vote Yes in the nation. The No voters number an estimated 54 per cent while only 40 per cent are in favour.

Peter Dutton has called on Mr Albanese to call off the referendum if it looks likely to fail.

“I think the uncertainty and the danger that the Prime Minister is setting our country up for and the division that he’s creating is quite remarkable,” Mr Dutton said last week.

The clock is now ticking on a referendum as it has to be held within six months of the enabling legislation passing Parliament.

“Now that that process is over, it’s now over to the Australian people,” Mr Albanese said.

“This is a change that’s from the bottom up. It is a change that Indigenous Australians have advocated for when they met at Uluru in 2017.

“And if not now – when? We need to recognise First Nations people in our Constitution. We should be proud of sharing this continent with the oldest continuous culture on earth, and we know that when we listen to people who are directly affected, we’ll get better outcomes. And that is what this is about.”