Mr Harbourside Mansion is as safe as houses

DESPITE a rough week, and internal whispers of an overthrow, there’s one reason Malcolm is as safe as houses, writes Joe Hildebrand.

PM Malcolm Turnbull in Question Time in the House of Representatives chamber, Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: Kym Smith

ON Tuesday, a contact in the Liberal party texted me to say there was chatter about rolling Malcolm Turnbull.

The PM had just been humbled by Newspoll and embarrassed by the departure of Cory Bernardi. Tony Abbott’s name was mentioned. So was Peter Dutton’s.

The next day he sent me another message saying the mood had suddenly changed. Turnbull was safe — at least for now.

Why? After more than six months of thinking they had Turnbull’s nuts in a vice, they realised that in fact it was he who had theirs.

Because if Turnbull is knifed as leader and decides to quit parliament it will trigger a by-election in his eastern Sydney seat of Wentworth. And in the current climate there is every chance the Libs won’t win it.

Normally, this wouldn’t matter too much but thanks to Turnbull’s lacklustre showing at the last election the Coalition only holds power by a one-seat majority. In other words, bye-bye Turnbull, bye-bye government.

Yes, for anyone still not convinced that Australian politics has gone bats*** crazy, Turnbull’s poor performance could be what saves him from being rolled. We are seriously through the looking-glass here people.

Of course there are those who will scoff and say the densely-mansioned seat of Wentworth is as safe as houses for the Liberal party. Well I certainly wouldn’t put my house on it.

For while on the surface Wentworth looks like an impenetrable fortress, the seat is in fact a house of cards.

The Liberals might have won the seat with a massive 67.75 per cent at the last election but that was with both Malcolm as the candidate and Malcolm as leader of the Liberal party.

And at the previous election in 2013 the Liberals recorded an even higher 68.92 but again this was with Malcolm as the candidate and Malcolm as a potential leader of the Liberal party and a massive swing away from the Labor government.

And at the election before that in 2010 the Liberals got a very nice 64.86 but again this was with Malcolm as the candidate after he had announced and then bizarrely unannounced he was quitting. Clearly the electorate did not want to lose him, and this also came with a swing away from Labor.

But when you go back to the last time there was a change of government from Liberal to Labor it is a very different story indeed. Turnbull won with just 53.85 per cent.

Importantly, this was under a previous distribution that took in more of the bohemian inner city, which obviously helped Labor and the Greens. But Wentworth still takes in half of Oxford Street, all of Bondi and lots of luvvies.

And we are now back where we were ten years ago with a Liberal government seemingly on its last legs. Newspoll on Monday had the Coalition at a record low primary since Turnbull took office — just 35 per cent — and the Coalition trailing Labor 46 to 54.

Malcolm Turnbull still holds all the power. Picture: Kym Smith

The 2007 election was also the last time the Labor party put up a remotely competitive candidate, in the form of high-profile lawyer and asylum seeker advocate George Newhouse.

Since then it has essentially run dead, leaving the seat to candidates with less brand recognition than a can of apricots. I challenge even the most ardent political tragic reading this to name one.

But that was against Turnbull in his leather-jacketed prime. And since the election last year the prime minister has retreated even further from his previous positions on climate change and same-sex marriage — two articles of faith in the trendy eastern suburbs.

In short, it is a fair bet that Turnbull is probably currently hovering closer to 60 per cent.

But here’s the double-kicker: even now, Turnbull would almost certainly do a damn sight better than anyone the Liberals replace him with — particularly if he is seen to quit in protest at a right-wing leadership coup.

For the voters of Wentworth might be rich, but they are also hip. They are economically liberal but socially progressive — pretty much the opposite of the Donald Trump-style populism the Liberal right wants to swing towards. The Wenty gentry are far too refined for that. They are Turnbull Libs, not Abbott Libs and certainly not Dutton Libs.

And so while the conventional rule of thumb is that being an incumbent MP alone generally gives you about a three per cent bump, the Malcolm factor is probably at least three times that. I know Labor party staffers who have voted for him — an act that is illegal under party rules.

And of course we all know there is always a swing against governments in by-elections. On a federal level this averaged more than 5 per cent prior to 2013 but you can bet London to a brick it would be much higher now. Since then yet another prime minister has been knifed and two first term state governments have fallen.

At the Orange state by-election in NSW the swing was more than 21 per cent. It too was against a second-term Coalition government with a once popular leader who lost his way.

In short, if Turnbull gets rolled and quits and Labor finds a big name candidate or swings behind a strong independent Wentworth is quite possibly gawn.

Indeed, in 2010 the ALP nearly persuaded high profile doctor Kerryn Phelps to run. If someone like that takes on a garden-variety Liberal in a by-election you’d be mad not to cash in your super and put the lot on red.

Besides, Turnbull’s finally found his Turnballs. If this week’s magical spray against Shorten is anything to go by Mongrel Malcolm could be a lot of fun. And let’s not forget he is the only world leader who took on Donald Trump and won.

So expect the Libs to keep their powder dry on any leadership coup. Sometimes it’s better just to see what a desperate man will do.

UPDATE: This afternoon the same source told me the leadership plotting was back on, this time around a new cleanskin candidate. Welcome to modern Australian politics.

Security peers through binoculars at Malcolm Turnbull’s Point Piper mansion in Sydney's east. Picture: John Feder/The Australian