‘It’s over’: New polling suggest no route to victory for Yes vote

A leading pollster has declared the referendum “done” and “over” as two new polls deliver more terrible news for the Yes side.

A leading pollster has declared the Voice referendum “done” and “over” in the wake of two new polls that suggest the No vote has opened up an unbeatable lead.

As the Prime Minister ruled out simply legislating a Voice if the constitutional referendum fails, two new polls suggest Australians are poised to reject it.

“If Australians vote No, I don’t believe it would be appropriate to then go and say, ‘Oh well, you’ve had your say, but we’re going to legislate anyway,’” he told Insiders.

“What we will do is respect the outcome of the referendum.”

According to the latest Newspoll, support for the Voice to parliament has fallen further heading into the final week of the campaign.

Just one in three of voters are now backing the proposed constitutional change and the bad news for the Yes campaign is that scepticism is even infecting the youth vote.

The exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows support for the Yes case now stands at 34 per cent – a 2 per cent drop in the last fortnight – as the campaign enters its final days.

The No vote has risen two points to 58 per cent. However, that result allows for 8 per cent of undecided votes to be parked in the “not sure” pile.

When those votes are distributed based on expected voting patterns the result is 37-63 in favour of a No vote.

The Prime Minister casts his vote. Picture: Jeremy Piper/NCA NewsWire

Former Labor strategist turned pollster Kos Samaras declared on Sunday night that the polls suggested the Yes vote could not win from here.

“Once you include undecided voters. That’s closer to the high 30s,’’ he said of the Yes vote.

“It’s done. It’s over.”

For the first time, support among younger voters has also fallen below 50 per cent and the number of 18 to 34 year-olds saying they intended to vote no rose eight percentage points to 49 per cent.

If that result is reflected on polling day, there will not be a single demographic category in which the Yes vote outnumbers the No case.

Even university-educated voters, traditionally strongly in favour of the Voice, were now also for the first time more likely to vote No, with a nine-point decline in support to 45 per cent.

The Resolve poll in the Nine Newspapers tells a similar story. It finds that the only state likely to deliver for the Yes vote was Tasmania.

The No vote was strong in Western Australia (61 per cent), Queensland (64 per cent) and South Australia (55 per cent).

It was neck and neck in NSW but the No vote was still in front with 52 per cent support. Even Victoria had the No vote securing 54 per cent of the vote.

The Resolve poll finds that 60 per cent of voters want more information before casting their vote and only 29 per cent are happy to back the measure on principle without knowing the design.

However, there was a glimmer of hope in the poll with a late gain to the Yes vote. Support for the Yes vote had risen in the last month from 43 per cent to 44 per cent but it remained significantly less than the No vote.

Indeed, the Resolve survey suggests that the Yes vote is on track to fail the “double majority” test for the referendum – that it must win a majority of votes and a majority of states.