Experts warn failing to lockdown Sydney now could prove a big mistake

It’s the question on every Sydneysider’s lips – but whatever the NSW Premier decides, it could seriously backfire as covid cases continue to spread.

Experts are divided over whether NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian should lockdown Sydney to prevent the spread of covid – but some warn it’s a gamble, and that rejecting a lockdown now could force authorities to do it for longer later.

Epidemiologists argue it’s “a big call” to go for a lockdown at this stage, because it remains possible that the spread can be brought under control with restrictions such as mask wearing and social distancing.

But mystery cases are the key.

Ms Berejiklian dismissed lockdown calls on Tuesday as she confirmed 10 new cases, but she left the door open should the outbreak get worse.

Asked whether that’s a mistake, Melbourne University epidemiologist Tony Blakely told news.com.au that mystery cases were the key determinant, and it remained possible a lockdown was the safer option.

“Maybe. That is for those on (the) ground to decide. It is all about probabilities,’’ Prof Blakely told news.com.au.

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Premier Gladys Berejiklian has ruled out a lockdown – for now. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Gaye Gerard

“Not going into lockdown, but masking up, might have a 50 per cent or more chance of success.

“Lockdown? Nearly 100 per cent.”

But as the NSW Government weighs up that gamble, Professor Blakely said there were consequences from waiting longer to lockdown – if the outbreak gets out of control.

“Lockdown now is likely to be shorter than lockdown in a week if control is lost,’’ he said.

“It’s very hard to weigh this all up. It will all come down to a judgment about risk from two cases found that were in the community, and for how long,’’ he said.

However, Professor Peter Collignon, an Infectious Diseases physician and microbiologist, said he believed a lockdown now was premature.

“So, you know, a lockdown where you put five million people locked in their home, so to speak, I think is a pretty big step in my view and it isn’t warranted unless you’ve got a lot of uncontrolled community transmission,’’ he said.

“And that really means you’ve got a lot of mystery cases you don’t know where they’re coming from.

“And if you look at Melbourne last year, when there was a real problem, they were having 30 cases a day. So, this is, to my mind, still controllable with increased restrictions for the community generally. I mean, indoor mask wearing is a good idea. There may be limits around and then there needs to be limits on people standing in bars and all those sorts of things, which we now have and are increasing, but basically at the moment, it doesn’t seem to me that it’s out of control so I don’t see how a lockdown would be justified at this stage.”

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Some experts say a lockdown now would be premature. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Flavio Brancaleone

Professor Collignon said the Delta variant was a concern, but perhaps not as great a concern as some suggested.

“So far, there’s no convincing evidence that the vaccine does not work if you get two doses,” he said.

“That doesn’t mean it’s not more infectious, it is. But the same basic things that we’ve done – keep your numbers down indoors, keep your distance, wear a mask indoors, all those sorts of things make a difference to stopping this spread.

“Look at Melbourne, they managed to contain this.”

Masks will remain compulsory on NSW public transport and indoor venues until midnight on Wednesday, June 30. In addition, that mandate has also been extended across Greater Sydney from 4pm today, including the Blue Mountains and the Illawarra regions, but not the Central Coast.

Ms Berejiklian said there was a degree of confidence that what she had asked people to do matches the risk that is there at the moment.

“If that changes, if we suddenly have a number of unlinked cases and if we suddenly have them outside the geographic region they are concentrated in, we will obviously adjust the health advice and we will respond,’’ she said.