Choice in Wentworth could destroy the government

LIBERALS are admitting they need a “miracle” to hold on to Wentworth — and if they fail, their nightmare could get even worse.

TOMORROW’S by-election in Wentworth is about far more than pride.

Should independent candidate Kerryn Phelps win Malcolm Turnbull’s old seat, she will rob the Coalition of its majority in parliament, forcing it to rely on the crossbench to stay in power.

The possibility of the government falling has been consistently downplayed throughout the campaign, with Dr Phelps selling herself as a potentially stabilising influence in Canberra.

But speaking to Sky News yesterday, she refused to categorically rule out supporting a motion of no confidence.

“I have said that I think governments should run their full term. It’s only a three-year term, it’s not very long for governments to put in place policies and to set an agenda and follow it through,” Dr Phelps said.

“I also think prime ministers should serve their full term as well.”

“So you would vote against a motion of no confidence?” host David Speers asked.

“I think we’d have to see what the context of that was. But my intention would not be to bring the government down before its term was completed. I think it should be in the hands of the Australian people,” Dr Phelps replied.

“This is quite important,” Mr Speers pressed. “I mean, you’re leaving open there the prospect of voting for a no-confidence motion. This could actually create a fair bit of chaos.”

“We have chaos now,” she shot back. “I mean the government’s gone from confusion to chaos.”

So it seems Dr Phelps would oppose bringing down the government as a general principle, but if circumstances changed, her mind could change with them.

.@drkerrynphelps on whether she would support the government in the event of a no confidence motion: I would have to see the context, but as a general rule I believe 'governments should serve their full term.'

MORE: https://t.co/TLQgOl11BR #speers pic.twitter.com/XlNYyNUgz8

— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) October 18, 2018

Ms Phelps’ stance on the matter has become more significant in the final hours of campaigning, with her odds of winning the seat rising.

Pessimistic senior Liberal sources have told Fairfax Media they will need a “miracle” to hold Wentworth after a nightmarish week, punctuated by the ugly email that was circulated to voters falsely claiming Dr Phelps had pulled out of the race because she had HIV.

Every candidate in the race slammed the dirty trick.

RELATED: Dr Phelps reacts to ‘terrible’ email

“It’s just vile and despicable, and I was shocked an appalled,” Liberal candidate Dave Sharma said.

“Not just for the dishonesty and the smears involved but for the stigma put around people with HIV.”

Fairfax’s sources said the email was “hugely damaging” and “the final nail” in Mr Sharma’s proverbial coffin, despite there being no suggestion he or the Liberal Party had been involved in its distribution.

It came after the start of the week was derailed by the Coalition’s support for One Nation leader Pauline Hanson’s “It’s OK to be white” motion in the Senate, which left it scrambling to deny accusations of racism.

The government backflipped and claimed an “administrative process failure” had led it to vote in favour of the motion by mistake. But it was too late, with Labor and the Greens accusing it of endorsing “the words used by white supremacists and neo-Nazis”.

RELATED: The sinister origins of ‘It’s OK to be white’

With that fiasco as the backdrop, leaked internal Liberal Party polling revealed Dr Phelps had surged ahead of Mr Sharma, going from 50-50 to 55-45 in the space of a week.

Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, whose retirement from parliament sparked the by-election, held Wentworth with a two-party majority of almost 18 per cent.

Rivals Dave Sharma and Kerryn Phelps.

In a last-ditch effort to give Mr Sharma a boost, the Liberals brought in another former prime minister, John Howard, to campaign alongside him yesterday.

Mr Howard implored voters not to vote against the government without considering the potential fallout.

“If enough people decide to register a protest vote then the seat could go to an independent, and that will rob the Morrison government of its working majority and make the remaining months of this term of office very difficult,” he said.

“A lot of people here are sad that (Mr Turnbull) is not any longer the member and prime minister, but others will take a view projecting forward. They’ll say we’re unhappy about that, but we’re a lot more unhappy about the thought of a Shorten government.”

An MP from the Liberals’ coalition partner the Nationals, Darren Chester, delivered a blunt assessment of their chances this morning.

“I don’t think the result is going to be good for us in Wentworth,” Mr Chester told ABC radio.

“I think we’re about to get a real-life opinion poll on what Australians think of political parties that undermine their leaders and change leaders midstream.”

Asked if he was praying for a miracle on Channel 7, Prime Minister Scott Morrison issued a grim warning about Dr Phelps’ intentions, suggesting she could destabilise parliament.

“I pray often about many things,” he said.

“This is a very important by-election. The lead independent candidate Kerryn Phelps on multiple occasions couldn’t even say she’d support a confidence motion. That can throw the entire government into a lot of uncertainty.

“I know there has been a lot of instability and uncertainty but voting for an independent will only make that worse.”