Bob Hawke’s death may impact 2019 federal election campaign

The death of Bob Hawke has provided a turning point in the election, and could stop the PM’s one big attack against Labor.

Charis Chang and Alexis Carey

6 min read

May 17, 2019 - 11:14AM

Former prime minister Bob Hawke’s death is likely to have a significant impact on the 2019 federal election campaign. Picture: AAP/Lukas Coch

With just a day before Australia decides its next Prime Minister, the death of Labor legend Bob Hawke could stop Scott Morrison’s big attack against Bill Shorten.

During the five-week election campaign, the PM has attacked Labor on its inability to manage the economy if Mr Shorten is elected tomorrow.

But the death of Mr Hawke at 89 yesterday has brought his legacy back into the public spotlight - with his management of the economy as one of them.

Speaking on the Today show this morning, veteran political reporter Laurie Oakes said Mr Hawke’s legacy disproved the Liberal line of attack that Labor can’t run the economy.

And he said Mr Hawke’s death would change the campaign in its final hours.

“Today was going to be, for both parties, a big day of negative campaigning. Trying to deliver the big killer punch. But they can’t do that now. Australia is in mourning. So are the politicians,” Oakes said.

“Bill Shorten has already changed his campaign. He’s cancelled a campaign to Queensland. He will be staying in Sydney. It will be a much lower key final day for him.

“And I would think for Scott Morrison and other politicians as well. It completely changes the end of this campaign. And the parties are having to adjust to that.

“What it might also do, because of all the obits and recognition of how the Hawke government changed Australia economically — it does counter to some extent the Scott Morrison line that Labor can’t run the economy.

“I mean, in terms of running the economy, that was a transformational government. It made Australia’s economy what it is today. And voters have forgotten that, they have been reminded.”

Mr Shorten will pay tribute to Mr Hawke today at the Sydney Opera House, where mourners have begun to lay flowers for the Labor giant.

The Opera House was the site where Mr Hawke launched some of the four campaigns he fought and won during the eight years he was Labor leader.

Mr Shorten has altered his campaign plans in order to honour Mr Hawke in Sydney today, instead of visiting electorates in Queensland as expected.

Professor Rodney Smith, from the University of Sydney’s Department of Government and International Relations, said the former leader’s death would now “overshadow” the rest of the election campaigns of both major parties.

“I think the ramifications will be that it will obviously take attention away from the last day and a half of the campaign, so anything that the parties – in particular, the Coalition – were hoping to do will be overshadowed by Bob Hawke’s passing,” he said.

“In some ways it will slow the campaign down and draw people’s attention away from anything else that happens today or tomorrow.”

Bill shorten arrives at Bob Hawke’s home today. Picture: John Grainger

Bob Hawke and Bill Shorten recreated an old photograph on Monday, just days before the legendary leader died.

Also interviewed on Today this morning, Mr Shorten was asked if he thought he would be letting Mr Hawke down if he lost tomorrow.

“I already feel a responsibility to millions of people to win,” he replied. “But sure, I want to do it for Bob as well tomorrow. But, you know, I don’t want to let his memory down. I think a lot of Labor people will feel the same way.”

Mr Shorten told Seven if he was elected on Saturday he would continue the legacy of Mr Hawke’s policy success during government.

Casting himself as Mr Hawke’s successor, he told Seven his policies on the environment and tax reforms echoed the successes of the Hawke government.

This week Mr Hawke co-wrote an open letter with former PM Paul Keating advocating for a Shorten government and arguing against the Liberal rhetoric that Labor couldn’t manage an economy — pointing to the strong economic success of the Hawke government.

“It is a blatant denial of history for Scott Morrison to allege that the Labor Party cannot manage the economy when he knows the design and structure of the modern Australian economy was put in place exclusively by the Labor Party,” they wrote in The Age and Sydney Morning Herald on Wednesday.

The column suggested that the Liberal Party had “completely given up the economic reform agenda” and failed to understand the imperative of climate change and the opportunities of the digital age.

Paul Keating and Bob Hawke during a press conference at Parliament House in 1983.

“I really think since Hawke and Keating, my team is outlining the biggest vision,” Mr Shorten told the Seven Network.

“We are the inheritors of this tradition, I think it is a great loss for Australia that Bob Hawke, the great Australian leader, is gone.

“But what I can do for him in a tradition is do everything I can to win tomorrow, from Medicare to environment to transforming the economy. We have the party with the big picture.”

This morning has allowed Mr Shorten to talk about his connection to Mr Hawke, who he saw just days ago while on the campaign trail.

“Bob Hawke was one of my heroes. He won the 1983 election when I was in year 11 at school when my interest in politics was really taking off,” Mr Shorten said.

“So he was the first senior adult, political leader, as I finished my teenage years. So I loved his approach to politics. It was one of the reasons why I chose the Labor Party. He believed in bringing people together.”

Mr Hawke’s death comes just a day after he released a letter endorsing Mr Shorten, saying he was ready to be prime minister.

“Bravery, honesty and vision are needed of the next Australian government. Laying out a party’s detailed policies ahead of an election requires political courage. Bill and his team have shown that courage, trusting the fair-mindedness of the Australian people,” the letter stated.

Only yesterday, the former Prime Minister released this letter endorsing Bill Shortenâ€™s bid to be Prime Minister #AusVotes19 #auspol @SBSNews pic.twitter.com/Zc9j4MzwgR
— Brett Mason (@BrettMasonNews) May 16, 2019

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Today said that “all Australians could connect with Bob Hawke”.

“That I think was his great charm and his great strength. And that enabled him to take the country with him on quite a number of important things,” Mr Morrison told Today.

“But it was his accessibility, his understanding of Australian life that meant he could be accessible by those who voted Labor, voted Liberal or whatever.

“I think today we remember a great Australian who understood Australians as a prime minister and I think that is always the most important characteristic to be backing in Australians and I celebrate his life.”

Bob Hawke with wife Blanche d'Alpuget.

National Press Club director and former press gallery journalist Mark Kenny said it was hard to tell what impact Mr Hawke’s death would have on the campaign but it had changed the atmosphere.

He said it would perhaps draw people’s attention to the difference between the style of leadership between modern politicians and that of Mr Hawke and other leaders such as Paul Keating.

“Bob Hawke was intent on doing big things and they went about it in a creative way and orderly way and they brought the necessary people and forces together and they got things done,” he said.

Kenny said Mr Hawke was about a big Australia and not “government by press release”.

“Some people argue we shouldn’t do anything on climate change because Australia only represents a small amount of emissions,” Kenny told ABC.

“Bob Hawke would never have taken that attitude about a challenge. He always saw Australia’s role as very large and he was an enlarger of the country.

“So I think in the sense of the comparison between Bob Hawke and the election now, there is that feeling that perhaps politics has got a little bit more petty and a little bit more inward and having a little less ambition in the whole process.”

Bob Hawke remains the longest-serving Labor prime minister ever. No leader since, from either party, has matched the height of his popularity.

Prof Smith said while Mr Hawke was “widely admired and respected”, he didn’t expect his death to be enough to sway the outcome of the election.

“It’s difficult to see that it would necessarily affect people’s votes now – but I think what it will do is particularly motivate the true believers who are working or volunteering for the Labor party. But for genuinely undecided voters, I don’t think it will have as much relevance,” he said.

The opposition’s lead over the Coalition has tightened 51 to 49 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, according to both an Ipsos poll for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age and a YouGov/Galaxy poll for The Daily Telegraph.

The Ipsos result is tighter than the 52 to 48 per cent in Labor’s favour recorded in early May, with the new survey showing early voters have favoured the coalition over Labor by 53 to 47 per cent.

A series of YouGov Galaxy polls of marginal seats also show Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton will hold on to his seat of Dickson by 51 to 49 per cent compared with Labor.

The surveys suggest a coalition win in Reid, Deakin and Flynn while Gilmore is tipped to go to Labor.

But the Queensland seats of Herbert (Labor) and Forde (LNP) and Victoria’s Liberal-held seat of La Trobe are on a knife’s edge at 50-50.

Originally published as Bob Hawke’s death may impact 2019 federal election campaign