Australia’s Covid plan could see lockdowns even after vaccination targets met

Experts believe lockdowns and quarantine may continue for several years after the majority of Australians are vaccinated.

Lockdowns may still be required even after the majority of the population is vaccinated if social distancing rules are not maintained and vaccinated adults start spreading the virus again.

As a result, testing, tracing, isolating and hotel quarantine will remain a feature of Australian life for years to come according to new research by the Doherty Institute that has underpinned the Morrison Government‘s road map out of the pandemic.

It warns that until vaccination rates reach 70 per cent that any outbreaks will likely see “rapid and uncontrolled” growth, deaths and hospitalisations.

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Covid-19 lockdown restrictions aren’t likely to be a thing of the past for many years to come. Picture: Brook Mitchell/Getty Images

And even after a majority of Australians are vaccinated, in the event of an “uncontrolled outbreak” between 1,300 and 2,000 people would still die within six months.

However, if a range of measures remained in place such as capacity limits in pubs, restaurants and sporting stadiums and social distancing was maintained then a 70 per cent vaccination rate could result in fewer than 20 deaths within six months.

Grattan Institute economist Tom Crowley told news.com.au that lockdowns were still possible if things went wrong to new variants emerged that the current vaccines could not combat.

“The Doherty modelling shows that optimal isolating and quarantining will be critical to control Covid even when 70 per cent or 80 per cent of the 16+ population is vaccinated, and if they fail we’ll need lockdowns,” he said.

The Prime Minister has proposed a four stage road map to reduce lockdowns and border closures. The first phase is the current situation.

Phase B is when 70 per cent of the population are vaccinated and lockdowns are no longer the first response to outbreaks. Phase C occurs when 80 per cent of the population is vaccinated and those that are can skip lockdowns and travel more freely interstate.

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The Prime Minister Scott Morrison during Question Time in the House of Representatives in Parliament House Canberra. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

“Phase C undermines isolation, quarantine, and lockdowns because it exempts vaccinated people, even though they can still spread Covid,” Mr Crowley said.

“So our first line of defence of testing, tracing and quarantine won’t be ‘optimal’ in Phase C, and our last line of defence – lockdowns – will be much less effective. That’s a dangerous combination when only 64 per cent of the whole population is vaccinated.

“But we don’t know exactly what this looks like because Doherty hasn’t modelled Phase C at all, even though it makes very big changes and the PM has already announced it as part of the plan.

“All the modelling is about Phase B. After Phase B we are flying blind.”

The Grattan Institute has taken a more cautious approach than the Doherty Institute warning that the reopening threshold is low.

“The key stage of the plan is stage C. In stage C, the government commits to no more mass lockdowns, and vaccinated Australians can leave the country and return without quarantine,‘’ he said.

“The over-16 qualifier matters a lot. The virus doesn’t care who is eligible. Children can still transmit the virus and so transmissibility depends on vaccine rates across the population.

“Getting to 80 per cent of Australians over 16 equates to just under 65 per cent of all Australians – far lower than the 80 per cent threshold Grattan Institute recommends for starting to re-open international borders.”

Vaccinating against Covid-19 is the only way for Australians to get their normal lives back, but as a nation we’re struggling.

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