Adelaide a key battleground state in upcoming Voice refendum

One state has been identified as the key state in the upcoming Voice referendum to parliament as the PM looks set to announce the date today.

South Australia has been identified as a key battleground state in the upcoming Indigenous Voice to parliament vote as the Prime Minister looks set to announce the date in Adelaide today.

news.com.au understands Anthony Albanese has chosen the state because it is seen as “strategically important” to whether the Voice is successful.

The Yes campaign also officially launches today and it will need to win four states and the national result to carry the required “double majority” for constitutional change.

A Yes campaign source told news.com.au that Queensland and Western Australia were “in trouble” meaning Tasmania and South Australia would be critical.

“Tassie is looking better than South Australia at this point,” the person said.

“If a third state goes down, the referendum is over.”

South Australia, according to the source, is seen as the key battleground, as well as western Sydney, Tasmania and Western Australia.

Western Australia is understood to be concerning for the Yes side because of controversy over the state’s Indigenous cultural heritage laws as well as being traditionally a conservative state.

“We think we can peg it back over the next six weeks now that they have clear air from the cultural heritage laws,” the source said.

Labor Senator Malarndirri McCarthy. Picture: David Swift

An analysis by Guardian Australia of Facebook advert spending by prominent pages supporting the Yes and No campaign shows that both groups are focusing on Tasmania, SA and WA.

Prominent Yes campaigner Noel Pearson told The Advertiser South Australia had a strong history of supporting progressive reforms for Indigenous people and would play a “critical” role in influencing Australians in other states and territories to vote Yes.

“I’m anxious and excited about the announcement of the date,” he said.

“We will then have six weeks to have conversations with Australians about the importance of this reform and the opportunity that it represents for all of us.

“South Australia is absolutely critical to this referendum as it always has been to any progressive reform in this country.”

Northern Territory Labor Senator Malarndirri McCarthy echoed Mr Pearson’s sentiments telling ABC News Breakfast it was an “important state”.

“I can speak personally in terms of the Northern Territory,” she said.

“We have always had a strong connection with South Australia. SA surrendered the NT to the Commonwealth in 1911. There is significant relationships for us as Territorians with SA. It is also the place where it was a free settler colony … These are important matters, in terms of the constitutional issues but also in terms of the voting here in SA.”

Aboriginal Affairs Minister Kyam Maher and Indigenous leader Noel Pearson. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Naomi Jellicoe

Referendum day is widely expected to be 14 October.

However, support for the Voice proposal has been plummeting over the last couple of months, dipping below 50 per cent in all states, according to the latest Newspoll published in The Australian.

According to the poll the Yes vote was only ahead in two states – South Australia and New South Wales – and is tied in Victoria.

The No camp is leading in Western Australia, Queensland and Tasmania.

Public support for the Voice began to fall sharply in May at the same time more than 600,000 households hit the “mortgage cliff” as fixed-rate loans rolled over onto sharply rising variable rates, a leading pollster says.

Redbridge director Kos Samaras, warned that voters in mortgage belt suburbs “starting to lose their homes” were growing “annoyed” at the Voice debate, and says he repeatedly tried to warn the Yes campaign earlier this year about the “looming problem”.

The question Australians will be asked to vote on to change the constitution to include an Indigenous Voice to parliament is:

“A Proposed Law: to alter the Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.

“Do you approve this proposed alteration?”

It will be the first referendum in Australia since the country voted on becoming a republic in 1999, which was unsuccessful, with 45.13 per cent voting Yes and 54.87 per cent voting No.

The republic did not receive a majority in any state in Australia.

Only the Australian Capital Territory recorded a majority Yes vote for it.

-with Frank Chung