Abbott leadership linked with Royal Commissioner’s fortunes

TONY Abbott is refusing to condemn Dyson Heydon for many reasons, not least because the fate of the Royal Commissioner’s job is linked to his own.

PM Tony Abbott in Question Time in the House of Representatives Chamber, Parliament House in Canberra. pic Kym Smith

TONY Abbott is stoutly refusing to condemn Dyson Heydon for many reasons, not least because the fate of the Royal Commissioner’s job is tightly linked to his own.

The basic equation is this: If Dyson Heydon leaves the bench of the trade union Royal Commission, a central prop of Tony Abbott’s leadership disappears with him. And without that prop, Mr Abbott’s leadership might collapse.

Mr Heydon was in charge when Opposition Leader Bill Shorten in July made his damaging appearance before the inquiry and famously had his credibility questioned.

If Mr Heydon’s own credibility is questioned or, at the very least, his excuse of having “overlooked” sensitive matters about an invitation to a Liberal Party function is queried, then the Labor leader will be less vulnerable to the commission’s findings.

Back to that central leadership prop.

There is a strong belief among Liberal Abbott backers the Prime Minister is safe because voters would never elect Bill Shorten to the top job. The Labor chief doesn’t rate electorally, goes the argument, because voters don’t like him.

So as long as Mr Shorten is the alternate Prime Minister, the bloke with the job at the moment is safe.

It is probably a wild and dangerous misreading of voters who could come to resent Tony Abbott so much a half-decent opponent would walk it in. They might check the recent Queensland election and then fate of one-term Liberal Premier Campbell Newman.

And if his Royal Commission appearance is neutralised by Mr Heydon’s problems, Mr Shorten would have to rate at least half-decent.

There is no organised move against Mr Abbott but there are jitters about leadership stability as the Prime Minster searches for a set of politically saleable policy credentials.

Over the past two days Prime Minister Abbott acted more like Police Minister Abbott, patting police drug sniffer dogs and pledging a fight against intoxicated drivers.

He demoted himself by lowering his policy sights in an effort to convince voters he was responding directly to their concerns. Mr Abbott fobbed off to an undefined national vote some time after the election possible changes to the Marriage Act — which is clearly identified by the Constitution as a Commonwealth matter.

Tony Abbott, the police minister.

Instead, he trespassed on the worksite of state governments.

With strained justification, the Prime Minister twice called press conferences — one in Brisbane, one in Canberra — on the fight against the spread of the drug ice, a genuine worry but one that is overwhelmingly a responsibility for state courts and police services. Mr Abbott argued he has a policy trifecta.

“As I keep saying, whenever I talk to the Australian people, our priority is jobs, growth and community safety,” he said Monday at a press conference condemning ice-affected motorists. Asked if this was actually a matter for the states, he said: “Well, this is an area where the Commonwealth is inevitably involved because whenever these sorts of matters are raised, the states usually expect national leadership.

“For instance, the states are looking to us to provide national leadership on legislation for unexplained wealth to give you just one example, and that’s something where we hope to have more to say in coming weeks.”

So it’s all about leadership. His own, no doubt.