Voters in NSW by-elections deliver blow to Premier Dominic Perrottet’s leadership

Premier Dominic Perrottet has been sent a big message by NSW voters, with the Coalition on track to lose one seat while Gladys Berejiklian’s previously safe seat saw a massive swing.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has been dealt a worrying blow in his first election test as voters headed to the polls on Saturday for four seats.

Voters in the seats of Bega, Monaro, Strathfield and Willoughby headed to the polls for the Super Saturday by-elections, triggered by multiple resignations from state parliament.

The by-elections were the first electoral test for not just Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet but also Labor leader Chris Minns since they took over as leaders of their parties.

The first blow came in Bega, with Labor likely taking the southern NSW seat for the first time since the seat’s inception in 1988.

9News political reporter Chris O’Keefe said the loss of Bega would leave the government “in foetal position”.

Constance and Perrottet will be in feotal position after Bega. A deserved loss after the summer that’s been. The 2023 general election will be won/lost in Sydney. Strathfield shows us Labor still has somewhat of a Sydney problem, a tight hold in byelection terms.

— Chris O'Keefe (@cokeefe9) February 12, 2022

Former Insiders host Barrie Cassidy also offered a theory on Bega.

From somebody who spends half the year on the NSW south coast a major issue to this day is the hopelessly inadequate governments response to the bushfire 2 years ago. That helps explain why Bega is going Labor for the first time.

— Barrie Cassidy (@barriecassidy) February 12, 2022

The second near-blow came in Willoughby.

The Liberals’ Tim James was expected to comfortably win the safe seat of Willoughby, which Ms Berejiklian held by a massive 21 per cent margin, however the seat recorded a huge swing towards independents.

Ms Berejiklian resigned after the state’s anti-corruption watchdog launched an investigation into potential breaches of trust.

The former premier denies any wrongdoing.

Labor did not bother to field a candidate for that by-election, but there were several independents vying for the seat.

The seat that was held by former NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian is now up for grabs. Picture: NCA Newswire/Gaye Gerard

Former deputy premier and Nationals leader John Barilaro’s regional seat of Monaro is also expected to be retained by the Nationals with Labor needing to overcome an 11.6 per cent margin.

The seat of Strathfield, where ex-Labor leader Jodi McKay is resigning, is expected to remain Labor.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said he wished Mr Perrottet all the best for the government’s hopes in the by-elections.

“I offer my great support to the many candidates out there working and thank all those Liberal Party members who are out there today,” he told reporters in Sydney.

Mr Morrison made particular mention of Bridget Sakr who is taking on Labor’s Jason Yat-Sen Li in Strathfield.

“I send a special little shout out to mine and Jenny’s very good friend Bridget Sakr out there in the seat of Strathfield,” he said.

“She’s a dear friend and I wish her all the very best, not just when it comes to this by-election, but more broadly.”

BREAKDOWN OF THE SEATS:

• Bega — to replace Andrew Constance. Michael Holland (ALP) vs. Fiona Kotvojs (LIB). This is the by-election with the biggest potential for an upset. Liberals hold a 6.9 per cent margin from the 2019 election;
• Monaro — to replace John Barilaro. Bryce Wilson (ALP) vs. Nichole Overall (Nationals). The Nationals hold a 11.6 per cent margin from 2019;
• Willoughby — to replace Gladys Berejiklian. Tim James (LIB) vs. several independents but no Labor candidate. Liberals hold a 21 per cent margin from 2019; and
• Strathfield — to replace Jodi McKay. Jason Yat-Sen Li (ALP) vs. Bridget Sakr (LIB). Labor holds a five per cent margin from 2019.

Gladys Berejiklian has endorsed Tim James as the Liberal party’s candidate for Willoughby. Picture: Supplied

Polls closed at 6pm, with the initial count results for voting centres and early voting centres to be published on the NSW Electoral Commission’s results website from about 7pm.

This is the first NSW election where all voters have been mailed postal vote packages.

That means the electoral commission expects a large amount of postal votes, which will not be counted until after February 25.

It means official results may not be known for weeks.