NSW state election 2023: Seats that will decide next NSW premier

While some seats sit on a razor-thin margin, others could provide an election upset that could determine the state’s future.

As NSW voters prepare to head to the polls, a handful of seats will determine the outcome of what will be the closest NSW state election in more than a decade.

To win a majority government (47 seats), Labor needs to keep all their 38 seats and pick up another nine; however, the party believes it could also achieve a minority government with five seats.

Currently, the Coalition has 46 seats – also one under the majority – making the outcome of these electorates on election night all the more important.

Most marginal Coalition seats

East Hills – 0.1 per cent (Liberal)

Along with Kogarah, East Hills in Sydney’s southwest sits on a slim margin of 0.1 per cent. Both major parties have given diligent airtime to the area, with Labor’s Kylie Wilkinson contesting the seat against incumbent Liberal MP Wendy Lindsay.

For Labor to win the election, it will have to claim East Hills says The Tally Room founder Ben Raue.

“I think the tipping point where Labor starts to be in election-winning position is they pick up East Hills and keep Kogarah before going further up the pendulum (in the more marginal seats),” he said.

“If we’re tossing and turning over the seats that are on a 1.5 per cent margin, then that’s a pretty good night for the Coalition.”

Labor will need to win East Hills among the five to nine seats it needs to pick up to form government. Picture: NCA NewsWire/ Gaye Gerard

Upper Hunter – 0.5 per cent (Nationals)

Spanning Singleton, Muswellbrook and the Barrington Tops, the traditionally Nationals-leaning seat faces a challenge from Labor due to boundary changes that incorporated Maitland and Cessnock.

Labor’s Peree Watson could make history flipping the seat red, but first she’ll have to win against Nationals MP Dave Layzell.

Penrith – 0.6 per cent (Liberal)

Embattled Penrith MP Stuart Ayres will recontest the seat against Labor’s former Penrith mayor Karen McKeown, with both parties campaigning hard for the western Sydney electorate.

While Mr Ayres has been promised a frontbench portfolio if he wins, his implication in former deputy premier John Barilaro’s $500,000 trade commissioner appointment may sway voters.

Despite the controversy, he’s retained his party’s backing. During Sunday’s Liberal rally, former prime minister John Howard unduly offered Mr Ayres his support, calling him a “very good minister”.

Whether the glowing praise will sway constituents remains to be seen.

Willoughby – 3.3 per cent (Liberal)

Notably Gladys Berejiklian’s former seat, Tim James won the electorate in the 2022 by-election when the margin of the traditionally very safe blue seat plummeted from 21 per cent to 3.3 per cent.

Independent candidate Larissa Penn will contest the seat again; however, unlike the by-election, Labor will be running Willoughby local and health economist Sarah Griffin.

Former premier Gladys Berejiklian held the seat of Willoughby from 2003 to 2021. Picture: NCA NewsWire/ Damian Shaw

Parramatta – 6.5 per cent (Liberal)

The retirement of longstanding incumbent MP Geoff Lee means Labor could reclaim the seat for the first time since 2011.

Parramatta Lord Mayor Donna Davis (Labor) and local lawyer Katie Mullens (Liberal) are contesting the seat.

Health Minister Brad Hazzard (Wakehurst), Transport Minister David Elliott (Castle Hill), Cities Minister Rob Stokes (Pittwater) and Customer Service Minister Victor Dominello (Ryde) will also be leaving the NSW parliament after the March 25 election.

Teal candidates eye Liberal-held seats

Aiming to repeat the teal wave that hit the Coalition in the 2022 federal election, Climate 200 backed challengers are also attempting to uproot some of the Liberal’s safest held seats in Sydney’s north shore and northern beaches.

They include Jacqui Scruby in Pittwater, Joeline Hackman in Manly, Victoria Davidson in Lane Cove, Helen Conway in North Shore and Judy Hannan in Wollondilly.

Not all are convinced that this will eventuate.

“I don’t think we’re going to see the wave we saw at this federal election,” Mr Raue said. “The state government isn’t the same as the federal government and preferential voting makes it harder.”

Notably, in the 2022 Victorian state election, none of the four teal candidates managed to win their seats.

Oatley – 6.8 per cent (Liberal)

Bordering Kogarah, the electorate has received a lot of attention from Labor leader Chris Minns.

Just last week, Anthony Albanese’s partner, Jodie Haydon and Mr Minns’ wife, Anna Minns, campaigned with Labor candidate Ashs Ambihaipahar at Mortdale station.

While Oatley sits on a safe margin of 6.8 per cent, Labor believes it has a good chance of turning it red. Ms Ambihaipahar is going against long-time local MP Mark Coure.

Labor’s Oatley candidate Ash Ambihaipahar had some high-profile support in the form of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s partner Jodie Haydon and Anna Minns, wife of NSW Labor leader Chris Minns. Picture: NCA NewsWire

Most marginal Labor seats

Kogarah – 0.1 per cent

A lot has been said about Kogarah in this election. It’s the electorate held by Mr Minns while also being the most marginal Labor-held seat.

Mr Minns admits Labor won’t win without retaining Kogarah, and it’s more likely than not that his heightened profile as Opposition Leader will help him retain the seat.

Liberal candidate Craig Chung will challenge the seat, alongside gambling-reform advocate Troy Stolz and Greens candidate Tracy Yuen.

“Mr Minns might not win it by a lot, but there’ll be a swing towards Labor probably. You don’t usually get leaders losing their seats, and when you do it’s normally a very person thing, like John Howard or Campbell Newman (former Queensland premier),” ,” Mr Raue said.

Leppington – 1.5 per cent

A newly created seat (along with Heathcote), the inaugural candidate will be decided on March 25. Based on previous voting patterns, Labor appears to have the slight upper hand. Both locals, the two key candidates are Camden Mayor Therese Fedeli and Labor’s Nathan Hagarty, who is also Local Government NSW treasurer.

Minister for Sport Alister Henskens, Premier Dominic Perrottet and Minister for Customer Service and Digital Government Victor Dominello show their support for Liberal Leppington candidate Theresea Fideli. Picture: NCA NewsWire/ Gaye Gerard

Most marginal seats held by a minor party

Balmain – 10 per cent (Greens)

Since 2011, the inner-west Sydney seat has been held by incumbent Greens MP Jamie Parker.

However with Mr Parker retiring from politics after March 25, Labor aims to make a play for the seat with Inner West Council Deputy Mayor Philippa Scott.

The Greens have tipped Inner West councillor Kobi Shetty to retain the seat for the party.

Kiama – 12 per cent (Liberal, turned Independent)

While current MP Gareth Ward was a Liberal candidate when he won the seat in 2011, he was expelled from the party after being charged with historical sexual abuse offences.

Although Kiama is still classified as a Liberal seat, Mr Ward will run as an independent on March 25.

Although Mr Ward has denied the allegations, both Mr Minns and Mr Perrottet say they will not let Mr Ward enter parliament, even if he’s elected.

Mr Perrottet has at multiple times during the election vowed to win Kiama back from Mr Ward; however, Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons was only installed as a candidate at the last minute.

Labor will also make a play for the seat with former journalist Katelin McInerney.