Eight electorates to watch at the NSW election
NSW goes to the polls today in what is shaping up to be a neck-and-neck race. The entire result could come down just a handful of seats.
You’ve got to hand it to Labor’s NSW leader Michael Daley. For a man who’s been opposition leader for a mere four months, the fact his party is level pegging with the Coalition is remarkable.
The most recent polls put Labor and the Coalition at 50-50 going into today’s NSW state election.
There is the very real prospect Gladys Berejiklian, who became premier in 2017 after her predecessor Mike Baird resigned, could be kicked out of the top job at her first election in charge.
But while 93 seats in the NSW lower house are in play, it’s likely just a fraction of those will decide whether Labor or the Coalition — or neither — prevails.
A mere eight seats, spread from the Tweed in the north to the Murray in the south, are the ones to watch.
Interestingly, not all of them are possible Labor gains. With a hung parliament on the cards, some of the closest seats could be picked up by minor parties such as the Greens or the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (SFF). That in turn could make them the kingmakers.
But first, the raw numbers. The winning party needs to get at least 47 lower house seats to win. The Coalition holds 52 of those. It did have 54 but by-elections in Orange and Wagga Wagga saw the Nationals lose to the SFF and an independent respectively.
If the Coalition lose six seats, it will lose its majority.
Labor is on 34 seats, so it needs to pick up 13 seats to be able to govern outright. The minor parties have seven seats: three for the Greens, three independents and one SFF.
A 3.2 per cent statewide swing away from the Coalition could see it lose their majority. A 6.7 per cent swing towards Labor would give it a shot at governing; 8.7 per cent would see it win outright.
The eight seats below are not necessarily the seats with the tightest margins. The seat with the smallest majority is Orange, in the state’s central west, which the SFF holds by just 0.1 per cent. But these are the seats that will be vital if there is to be a change of government.
LISMORE
Where: Far north coast, including Lismore, Murwillumbah and Nimbin.
Held by: Nationals, 0.2 per cent.
Who wants it: Labor and the Greens.
The Greens’ top target after the party snatched neighbouring Ballina from the Nationals in 2015 on the back of local anger at coal seam gas.
At the last election, Labor and the Greens out-polled the Nationals’ Thomas George but neither had enough oomph to unseat him. This time round Mr George is retiring, removing the incumbent advantage. The Nats are fighting to hold on. Coal seam gas is resonating less this time around. That’s bad news for the Greens, so Labor will be hopeful it can sneak through.
EAST HILLS
Where: Sydney’s southwest, including Bankstown, Revesby and Padstow.
Held by: Liberal, 0.4 per cent.
Who wants it: Labor.
This is one of the most marginal seats in Sydney. Just 372 votes divided Liberal and Labor in 2015. It was also one of the most controversial battles of that election when thousands of pamphlets appeared spreading outrageous and false accusations about Labor’s Cameron Murphy. Mr Murphy is back and has said the smears weren’t going to stop him running again.
Current MP Glenn Brookes is not re-standing, so it’s a head-to-head between Mr Murphy and the Liberals’ Wendy Lindsay. Local issues include overdevelopment and congestion. The demolition of the Sydney Football Stadium has not gone down well but the government has promised to spend $1.3 billion on the area’s rundown hospital if re-elected.
MONARO
Where: Southeast, including Queanbeyan and Cooma.
Held by: Nationals, 2.5 per cent.
Who wants it: Labor.
If Labor wins Monaro, it’ll be a huge scalp as it is held by NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro. The bellwether seat has backed the winning party in 26 out of 29 elections.
Forced council mergers played badly in the electorate and Labor’s Bryce Courtney has promised a “pathway to demerger”. Mr Barilaro has pointed to road upgrades, schools and sporting precincts as his legacy.
COOGEE
Where: Sydney’s Eastern Suburbs including Randwick and Bondi Junction.
Held by: Liberal, 2.9 per cent.
Who wants it: Labor.
If the Liberal’s Bruce Notley-Smith needed any reminder how precarious his position is, he need to look only at the major roads in his electorate. By now, shiny new trams should be cruising along them ferrying his voters up to the CBD. Instead, it’s still a construction site with the project running at least a year late. Even when it opens, Labor candidate Marjorie O’Neill has claimed the trams will be at capacity.
Mr Notley-Smith, who has held the seat for two terms, has promised upgrades to local schools and Bondi Junction railway station. But Labor must be confident here, as it’s planning on holding its election night party in the electorate.
READ MORE: The big issue dividing the Coogee electorate
BALLINA
Where: Far north coast, including Ballina and Byron Bay.
Held by: Greens by 3.1 per cent.
Who wants it: Nationals or Labor.
While the Greens are hopeful of snatching Lismore from the Nationals, the reverse could happen in Ballina. It was a huge shock when the Greens took the seat in 2015 with a successful focus on the coal seam gas industry. But that issue is no longer top of mind and a swing back to the Nats could see them retake Ballina. If that swing isn’t large enough, though, the spoils will likely be claimed by whoever comes second as they will scoop up the third-placed candidate’s preferences.
The progressive vote is split with Labor polling well in the town of Ballina and the Greens ruling the roost in Byron. The Greens will be hoping the profile of sitting MP Tamara Smith will help her retain the seat.
TWEED
Where: NSW north east, including Tweed Heads and Kingscliff.
Held by: Nationals, 3.2 per cent.
Who wants it: Labor.
Tweed is an electorate split in two. The northern urban area, on the Queensland border, is an extension of the Gold Coast and votes more strongly for the Nationals. But the southern rural parts of the electorate have a strong Greens and Labor tinge. The big local issue is where a new $500 million local hospitals should be located.
The most recent federal results saw the town of Tweed Heads vote Labor.
MURRAY
Where: South, including Deniliquin, Leeton and Griffith.
Held by: Nationals, 3.3 per cent.
Who wants it: Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party,
Having already snatched Orange off the Nats, the SFF is now hoping to add Murray, and maybe even Barwon, to their column.
A vast electorate, Murray stretches along much of the river it is named after and up to the South Australian border.
In a 2017 by-election, Austin Evans was lucky to retain the seat for the Nationals against the SFF’s Helen Dalton. She is running again.
PENRITH
Where: Sydney’s west, including Penrith, Emu Plains and Glenbrook.
Held by: Liberal, 6.6 per cent.
Who wants it: Labor.
Also a bellwether, Penrith usually plumps for the eventual victor. Stuart Ayres won the seat with a thumping 25.7 per cent swing in 2010 when the Labor government was in its death throes. But the margin has shrunk since then.
Mr Ayres’ ministerial portfolio includes responsibility for the controversial demolition of the Sydney Football Stadium. He is also looking after the vast WestConnex motorway project. While it should improve journey times for his constituents, Labor’s promise to reinstate a “cash back” on tolls on the M4 motorway may sway some.
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