NSW is expecting ‘worst’ month in October as Covid hospitalisations hit their peak

Premier Gladys Berejiklian has revealed when NSW is expected to face its worst challenge as she faces criticism over stretched resources.

NSW has still not faced its worst month with Premier Gladys Berejiklian warning admissions to intensive care units were not expected to peak until October.

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian confirmed the grim outlook for the state as coronavirus cases continue to rise.

On Monday, cases reached another high, with 1290 cases recorded and four deaths.

Modelling released last week indicated Covid-19 cases would continue to rise until October before finally dropping as vaccination rates improve.

The increase in cases will also push intensive care units to their limits.

There are currently 840 Covid-19 cases in hospital, with 137 people in intensive care, 48 of whom require ventilation.

Stories have emerged from overworked intensive care nurses in Sydney that they are increasing sedative doses for some patients in order to manage their workload.

According to The Guardian, nurses have raised concerns that surging Covid cases had left them understaffed in non-Covid ICUs in recent weeks.

It comes amid comments from Ms Berejiklian that authorities expected an even bigger increase in hospitalisations in coming weeks.

She said information on vaccination rates and the accumulation of cases, indicated October would likely be the worst month in terms of pressure on the health system.

“We anticipate that the worst month, the worst time for our intensive care patient will be in October,” Ms Berejiklian told reporters on Monday.

She noted that there were a lot of variables so did not give an exact number of how many people would be in intensive care, as this also depended on how many cases there were.

The federal opposition labelled Sydney’s third wave an “unmitigated disaster”, with Opposition Health spokesman Mark Butler saying the situation for Sydney’s hospitals is getting worse by the day.

Mr Butler said he was “concerned” for the NSW health system and pointed the finger at the Prime Minister and Ms Berejiklian.

“It is a disaster caused by Scott Morrison’s failures on vaccines and quarantine, as well as having cajoled Gladys Berejiklian eight days into the outbreak to resist going into full lockdown,” Mr Butler said, claiming more needed to be done to support the state.

“It is already starting to overwhelm the New South Wales hospital system, with hospitalisations increasing by 43 per cent in just seven days.

“The New South Wales hospital system is at breaking point and those people deserve something greater than simply setting up a committee from Scott Morrison.

“The Premier has said that hospitalisations aren’t likely to peak until October. At the moment they are increasing by about 40 to 45 per cent per week. That means the system has simply become overwhelmed.”

Premier Gladys Berejiklian says October is expected to be NSW’s worst month. Picture: Damian Shaw/NCA NewsWire

Ms Berejiklian said however the government had been gearing up for the peak in cases and had been for nearly two years.

“About 18 months ago when the pandemic started in earnest, we quadrupled, pretty much, our ICU capacity,” she said.

“We have around 2000 ventilators.

“The health system is prepared but will it be stretched, absolutely.”

While Ms Berejiklian acknowledged the system was stretched, she said there was capacity across the network, and resources and specialists could be moved around.

October is also the month when it’s expected NSW will hit 70 per cent of adults with two doses, and the government has indicated students will be able to return to school and there could be further easing of restrictions for people who are vaccinated, such as allowing them to visit venues for outdoor dining.

Ms Berejiklian noted that even though October could be the worst month for hospitalisations, this did not necessarily relate to transmission of the virus. She said hospitalisations were more a reflection of the accumulation of cases.

“Once we get to October, once we get to 70 per cent double dose, the chances of our citizens … ending up in hospital or ending up in intensive care greatly reduces,” she said.

“The rate of hospitalisation, the rate of people going into intensive care goes down every time the vaccination rates go up.”

Ms Berejiklian’s comments come after University of Sydney research released last week indicated cases would continue to climb and could peak between 1500 and 6000 a day by early October.

Covid cases in NSW could climb to as high as 6000 a day. Picture: Flavio Brancaleone/NCA NewsWire

The complex modelling was led by Professor Mikhail Prokopenko, Director of the University of Sydney’s Centre for Complex Systems, who used data available until August 25.

If restrictions were lifted, cases could grow to a whopping 40,000 cases a day, according to the research.

“Our extended projections suggest that Delta cases will initially peak in early October and will begin to drop off as more of the population is vaccinated. However, consistent adherence to social distancing is important to prevent a sharp peak in cases,” Professor Prokopenko said.

“Although it is encouraging that more people are being vaccinated, we can expect to see a rapid increase in cases when we exit the lockdown. In fact, our modelling suggests the worst is yet to come if the restrictions are removed too soon and too abruptly.”

Professor Prokopenko said pandemic growth was expected to slow from mid-December, when 75 per cent of the population is projected to be vaccinated and natural immunity will be developed by 3 to 5 per cent of the entire population by the end of the year.

Ms Berejiklian acknowledged that some countries who had opened up too freely had seen their hospitals overwhelmed.

She said this was a challenge for any society and other states would also have to deal with this.

“Even after you get to 80 per cent double dose, we’re going to see more cases but if the majority of our population is vaccinated, the majority of those cases won’t need to be in hospital,” she said.

“That’s why it’s really important to focus on those numbers, because that is what will make sure that our hospital system isn’t overwhelmed.”

— with Matt Young