Virus expert says NSW may have had its last coronavirus-free day

Sydney is approaching its sixth week of lockdown and restrictions are steadily getting harsher – so why does the virus keep spreading?

Sydney is approaching its sixth week of lockdown and restrictions are steadily getting harsher – so why does the virus keep spreading?

Virus experts say the lockdown rules would need to be tightened and better complied with to suppress the outbreak.

But one academic said it was possible NSW would become the first state to be forced to “live with the virus” and give up on the goal of zero community cases.

“NSW could be forced to bumble its way forward and play whack-a-mole until vaccination coverage is high enough so we can drive the outbreak down,” Melbourne University epidemiologist Tony Blakely said.

The coronavirus outbreak that began in Sydney’s eastern suburbs in mid-June has ballooned to more than 3000 cases and the spread shows no sign of slowing down.

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian acknowledged the outbreak was far from over on Thursday – a record setting day with 239 new local infections.

Sydney’s current coronavirus outbreak has infected nearly 3,000 people. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Bianca De Marchi

“Based on those numbers we can only assume that things are likely to get worse before they get better given the quantity of people infectious in the community,” Ms Berejiklian said.

The Premier and her health team have identified workplaces and “health settings” – meaning doctor’s appointments and pharmacy visits – as some of the biggest risk zones for virus transmission.

Another big problem is people breaking the rules by visiting other households.

Infectious diseases physician Peter Collignon said that he was hopeful compliance with the rules had improved, even if the high daily case numbers seen this week would indicate otherwise.

“There’s a seven to 14 day delay in the results, so a lot of the issues with the transmission we’re seeing would have occurred when people weren’t following the rules a few weeks ago,” he said.

Professor Blakely said that if the extra-harsh lockdown rules that are in place in certain hotspot areas were implemented across the city, Sydney would be on a faster track towards suppressing the spread.

People in the council areas of Canterbury-Bankstown, Fairfield, Liverpool, Blacktown, Cumberland, Parramatta, Campbelltown and Georges River are banned from going more than 5km from their homes and must wear masks outdoors at all times.

Extending the outdoor mask rule to all of Sydney should be a “no-brainer”, Professor Blakely said.

Vaccinating a large part of the population will be key to being able to “live with the coronavirus”. Picture: NCA Newswire /Gaye Gerard

“This year, we have a virus that spreads by fleeting transmission, it’s way more likely to transmit in a coffee queue,” he said.

“There is an incredibly strong case for wearing masks outdoors whenever you’re next to somebody. Why it’s not mandatory across all of Sydney, I don’t understand.

“If NSW was serious about eliminating the virus in the next six weeks, you would do everything you could.”

Mikhail Prokopenko, director of the University of Sydney‘s Centre for Complex Systems, agreed the outdoor mask rule should be in place in the entire city.

“There has been some spread at outdoor events recently,” he said, pointing to the transmission at the Melbourne Cricket Ground during Victoria’s recent outbreak.

However even if everyone followed the rules, people who need to go to work in order for society to function would still be at risk of catching and spreading the coronavirus.

Professor Collignon said essential workers should wear a mask and a face shield at all times to protect themselves and others.

He said the same problem of lax use of personal protective equipment was obvious during Melbourne’s virus outbreak last year.

“Often the basics aren’t being adhered to – you’re in the tearoom, or doing a handover with colleagues, and you’re not keeping the 1.5m distance or wearing your mask,” he said.

The face shield would be important to protect the eyes from droplets that could contain the virus, which is necessary because the eyes are connected with the sinus, he said.

The NSW government has set a goal to end the lockdown by the end of August – but it is far from clear whether the spread will have been eliminated by then.

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has said the outbreak is likely to get worse before it gets better. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Bianca De Marchi

In Professor Blakely’s view, it is possible NSW has seen its last virus-free day.

He said the state might have to settle for keeping the community spread to a minimum until enough people have been vaccinated, rather than aiming for full elimination.

People who are vaccinated against the coronavirus aren’t likely to fall seriously ill if they catch it, which is why governments around the world have been so anxious to quickly inoculate their populations.

The federal government has said enough Pfizer vaccines should be available in Australia to have a significant impact by October.

“It’s critical that we flood vaccines into Sydney, but vaccinating our way out of this thing is going to take time,” Professor Blakely said.

“It’s almost certain that we won’t get rid of it in the next four weeks, so maybe we’ll have to have a bridling strategy until October.

“NSW may become the first state that learns to live with the virus, while the rest of us only do that when international borders open up.”