Covid-19 NSW: University of Sydney modelling claims Australia could hit 40,000 cases a day without restrictions

States around Australia will ease restrictions when 80 per cent of their population is vaccinated, but if they open abruptly the case numbers could be epic, experts claim.

Experts from the University of Sydney claim Covid-19 cases could surge to 40,000 a day across Australia if state governments throw all restrictions out the window when 80 per cent of the population is fully vaccinated.

Although NSW appears to be past the peak of the virus, and with Victoria in the middle of its outbreak, Sydney Uni’s Centre for Complex Systems warns that its modelling still indicates the country “must brace for a surge of infections upon reopening”.

“If restrictions are fully lifted when 80 per cent of adults are vaccinated, infections across Australia may rapidly grow to 40,000 per day and exceed half a million cases in the month following the lift according to this latest modelling,” the Centre for Complex Systems wrote on August 26.

“Despite this immediate post-lockdown surge, pandemic growth is expected to slow from mid-December, with 75 per cent of the population vaccinated and natural immunity developed by three to five percent of the entire population by the end of the year.”

University of Sydney modelling shows NSW cases will skyrocket if restrictions are completely scrapped when 80 per cent of the population has been vaccinated. Picture: Sydney University

The centre’s Dr Sheryl Chang and her team’s modelling predicted Australia could experience a similar skyrocketing of cases that happened in Singapore and Israel despite both nations having a heavily vaccinated population.

“Our modelling suggests that new daily cases are likely to surge if we abruptly exit lockdown, reaching tens of thousands of cases per day across Australia by Christmas even with continued testing, tracing, isolation, quarantine and international travel restrictions,” Dr Chang said.

“These post-lockdown surges have already been observed in many countries, even with relatively high vaccine coverage, such as Singapore.

“It is important that people maintain social distancing and follow gathering rules, as our healthcare system prepares itself to manage a potentially high number of hospitalisations in the next few months.”

However, the modelling was done in August and in NSW that was before the state government‘s road map out of lockdown was revealed, which laid out a measured, three-step plan to reopen the economy.

NSW reached the milestone of 70 per cent of its eligible population having had two jabs on Wednesday.

That ensured a raft of restrictions will be eased on Monday, including pubs, restaurants and cafes opening to vaccinated patrons as well as 10 people being allowed to gather inside a home.

NSW is predicted to hit the 80 per cent target in less than two weeks, which will trigger even more restrictions to be lifted.

NSW recorded 587 new cases on Thursday. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Dan Peled

Newly minted NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet on Thursday revealed students would be back in classrooms by the end of the month.

“All schools will return by October 25,” Mr Perrottet said. “That’s great for kids and a major relief for parents and their sanity.”

Indoor pools will also be opened from Monday (October 11), while weddings and funerals will have their caps raised from 50 attendees to 100.

From Monday, 10 vaccinated adults will also be allowed to gather in homes (it had been five but has been raised), while 30 adults can gather in public outdoor spaces (up from 20).

At 80 per cent, Mr Perrottet also said the government would remove the requirement to wear masks in the office, but teachers would still have to wear masks in classrooms.

That is because not all schoolchildren will be vaccinated.

NSW will also increase caps on gatherings at 80 per cent, with 20 adults allowed to gather in homes.

Outdoors, 50 people will be able to congregate, while 3000 people can attend ticketed outdoor events providing a Covid-safe plan has been submitted.