Early easing of NSW restrictions backed by expert while others raise concerns
The early easing of restrictions in NSW has raised concerns from some experts but one believes the announcements are reasonable.
NSW’s new Premier Dominic Perrottet has announced significant changes to the state’s re-opening plans, sparking concerns from some experts.
The Australian Medical Association (AMA) NSW President, Dr Danielle McMullen, said easing restrictions too quickly would undo the work and sacrifices NSW residents had made to get to this point.
“What we don’t want is to open up and be forced to go back into lockdown for Christmas,” Dr McMullen said.
“If the hospitals are overwhelmed now we risk completely burning out the workforce, not to mention the impact it will have on both Covid and non-Covid care.”
Dr McMullen said it was “mind-boggling” people would be able to attend mass gatherings yet elective surgery still hasn’t reopened.
“We urge the Premier to get this right, go carefully, and pump the brakes.”
However, Deakin University epidemiologist Professor Catherine Bennett was broadly supportive of the changes announced today.
She emphasised the freedoms would only be available to those who had been fully vaccinated.
One of the changes announced was the re-opening of indoor pools on Monday, which were originally expected to remain closed until December 1, for “rehabilitation, children’s swimming lessons, organised lap swimming and the like”.
Prof Bennett said the re-opening for certain activities would enable people to remain socially distanced, allowing it to be managed in a safe enough way.
“Particularly for rehabilitation, the cost of not doing it is worse than the small risk of doing it,” she said.
NSW will also double the amount of visitors allowed in people’s home from five to 10 people, and will increase the number allowed to attend outdoor gatherings from 20 to 30.
Prof Bennett said allowing more visitors in the home may increase the amount of households that gathered in one place but it may not.
“As an epidemiologist I would say one or two households can mix, rather than the number of people,” she said.
If five people from five different households were choosing to meet up every day, this would increase the number of people from different households that could be infected.
In contrast, a group of 10 people could meet up but they may only be from two households, which is safer.
Prof Bennett said this also applied to the increase in numbers of people allowed to gather outdoors.
However, she said it would likely only take NSW another two weeks to reach an 80 per cent vaccination rate, which would have allowed larger groups to gather anyway.
“The real difference is only that they are bringing it forward a couple of weeks,” she said.
Prof Bennett said research had shown protection from the vaccines did wane over time but they provided the best protection in the first three months. She said this made it a good time to come out of lockdown as many people had just been vaccinated.
“I think we should take advantage of that, while vaccinations are at their peak and before they start to wane, hopefully it makes things like returning to school safer,” she said.
Schools re-opening will be a test
When it comes to the re-opening of all schools by October 25, Prof Bennett said there was a small risk and it would be a test of whether schools were ready with enhanced safety features such as ventilation.
“It will force the health department to decide what happens if there is a case at a school,” Prof Bennett said.
She noted there was good vaccination uptake among older students even though it was a bit patchy.
However she said the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance (NCIRS) had shown it was actually adults who posed the greatest risk in school settings. All teachers will be required to be fully vaccinated by November.
Wedding boost won’t happen immediately
Loved-up couples may also be celebrating the boost in numbers for weddings and funerals from 50 to 100 people.
Prof Bennett said she wouldn’t think many 100-person weddings would be planned starting on Monday and that it would take a while for these events to organise. She again noted that it would likely only take NSW another 11 days to reach 80 per cent vaccination, which is when the cap would have been removed anyway.
“If you can get down to below 500 cases, which is where NSW is heading, by Monday, it’s quite contained and hopefully people aren’t going to be planning an event for Monday,” she said.
Other precautions can take the place of masks
Changes to the restrictions lifted at 80 per cent fully vaccinated were also announced.
This includes dropping the requirement for people to wear masks in the office.
Prof Bennett said she supported this as by that point, more than 90 per cent of NSW residents were likely to have had one vaccination dose.
“You might expect to see about 93 per cent single dose by the time 80 per cent of people are fully vaccinated,” she said.
She said other precautions could compensate for the lack of masks.
“Ventilation in every situation is going to be more important than masks,” she said.
“Not going to work if you have symptoms and home testing kits (for Covid) can all reduce the risk.”
Safety of big events
The cap on major outdoor events will also be raised to 5000 people, with exemptions also available, and Prof Bennett said the safety of these events would depend on how they were managed.
She said events at Melbourne’s Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) and other venues showed the importance of zoning and managing pinch points such as tunnels that can crowded.
“You can space people out in the stadium and they don’t have to wear a mask if they are far enough away from other people,” she said.
She said putting people in zones was also sensible as it was more easy to manage if something happened, with only certain gates or punters impacted.
“This means you are really managing 50 events of 100 people,” she said.
Concern over young people
However, University of NSW epidemiologist Professor Mary-Louise McLaws believes the changes should be postponed until at least 80 per cent of those aged under the age of 40 had been fully vaccinated, which could be two to three weeks away.
Prof McLaws, who has previously called for the fast-tracking of vaccinations for under 40s, said someone who was fully vaccinated could go to a nightclub or other venue and may still get infected, then come home and transmit it to someone who had not yet received both doses.
“I understand, particularly the young, need to get out, earn money and have some fun. But we still have mixed households,” she told ABC.
Professor McLaws also pointed out that people don’t reach their full Covid protection level until 14 days after their final vaccine dose.
“Most people haven’t reached that maximum protective level,” she said.
“70 per cent of 80 per cent of the population 16 years and over really only represents one in two people in the general community are completely covered.
“So, we really do need more of that equity of the 70 per cent across the young, the vulnerable, and regional areas.”
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