Islamic State will be ‘more active than ever’ as Ramadan approaches

THIS time last year, a little-known terrorist leader declared himself a caliph. To mark the anniversary, something monstrous may be on the cards.

ISLAMIC State will be “more active than ever” in the coming weeks to ensure it is seen as strong and defiant in the lead up to its one year anniversary, an expert says.

London researcher Charlie Winter told The Independent that Islamic State, also known as IS, will likely act to make itself appear stronger than ever as the anniversary of the declaration of the “caliphate” approaches.

“There is a concerted effort to appear as relevant as ever, stronger than ever and more defiant than ever in the face of international opposition,” Mr White said, adding that the group would be planning “more violence, more advances, more attacks”.

Next month marks the start of Ramadan, the holy month when Muslims fast from dawn until sunset. Last year, IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi marked the beginning of Ramadan by proclaiming himself caliph of the new “Islamic State” and urged supporters to “take up arms” around the world.

Recent IS victories in seizing the cities of Ramadi and Palmyra in Iraq and Syria, would have been “meticulously” timed to give the group the perception of momentum ahead of its anniversary, said Mr Winter, a researcher with counter extremism think tank the Quilliam Foundation.

IS is taking advantage of its success, flooding social media and jihadist forums with pictures of its fighters battling enemy troops, suicide bombings, beheadings and images of its black flag flying over seized cities.

Even though the US is confident that the cities will be regained, it admits the outcome is a setback. It could also impact Islamic State’s next move, which some analysts believe could be a wide-scale attack overseas.

The world has already glimpsed the frightening potential for “lone wolf” attacks like the Sydney siege and Paris hostage crisis. But Professor Greg Barton of Monash University told news.com.au that IS has yet to fully harness its network of sympathisers.

“The thing with Islamic State is we don’t know what it will take for them to fully activate their foreign fighter networks,” Prof Barton said.

“We haven’t seen it reach its potential yet, and the question is whether IS is planning a large scale activation of lone wolf attacks.”

Prof Barton said that its recent successes in the region could make IS it feel emboldened to move forward with a large-scale attack. However, an alternate view is that it could lessen the chance of an attack because if IS had been pushed back in Iraq and Syria, it would have been looking for other ways to show strength and been more likely to call on foreign sympathisers.

Regardless, Prof Barton said it was certainly plausible that IS would be seeking to step up its activities ahead of its anniversary, and that Australia could easily be in its sights.

“We’ve seen that they are on a bit of a high at the moment, retaking Ramadi has been a significant victory for them, and advancing in Syria to the point where they control almost half of the country ... they must feel the tide is running with them at the moment, and that in itself is a cause for concern,” Prof Barton said.

“So it’s true that they are feeling stronger and more defiant than ever but what this means for strategy and tactics is not clear,” he said.

Australian authorities recently uncovered alleged terror plots planned for Anzac Day and Mother’s Day, and there is evidence the government is acknowledging the increased threat from IS.

The leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, declared himself Caliph Ibrahim a year ago.

“The Australian government has announced more than $1.3 billion for counter terrorism measures and in this year’s Budget there is $450 million in new spending,” Prof Barton said.

“A little less than $300 million is allocated for improved IT hardware and software — and I would speculate that this is needed because IS is making extensive use of social medial and encrypted messaging apps.

“In an environment where they are trying to save money, the government is spending big money on this so my only explanation of that is that the threat as assessed is extraordinary.”

In recent months Australian authorities have arrested a number of young men who have allegedly been plotting attacks in Australia including an attack on police on Anzac Day.

This week Prime Minster Tony Abbott unveiled fresh measures to combat Islamic radicalisation and liaise with Muslim leaders.

The government plans to spend $40 million on new intervention programs and community initiatives to prevent young Australians from leaving the country to join terror groups.

Mr Abbott also flagged plans to strip dual nationals of their Australian citizenship, if they were found to be fighting with terror groups.

On Monday he confirmed former ambassador to Indonesia Greg Moriarty as Australia’s first national counterterrorism co-ordinator, and appointed Justice Minister Michael Keenan as the nation’s first counterterrorism minister.

He said Australia’s national security architecture needed to constantly evolve to meet the threat from terrorism, amid growing concerns about the lure of groups such as Islamic State.