Why Tony Abbott’s loss masks a wider issue

Tony Abbott’s defeat was meant to be the start of a wave of big scalps. But his loss ended up masking a wider issue across the nation.

At 7.30pm last night, it happened — the first big scalp of the night.

Tony Abbott lost his safe Liberal seat of Warringah to independent Zali Steggall after 25 years as the local MP.

For Labor supporters, who cheered the former PM’s defeat at the Opposition’s election party in Melbourne, it was meant to be the first of many wins.

It was a crushing defeat for Mr Abbott, who received just 39 per cent of the primary vote. After preferences, Ms Steggall had almost 58 per cent of the vote in what has always been a super safe Liberal seat.

In 2013, when he became the prime minister, his first preference vote was more than 60 per cent.

But that was about as good as it got for Labor last night — an independent winning a safe Liberal seat.

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In March, Mr Abbott stopped his regular interviews on 2GB because he only wanted to talk about local issues.

Tony Abbott at his home in Sydney this morning after losing his seat of Warringah. Picture: Jeremy Piper

But in the end the Warringah seat was fought largely on non-local issues, with climate change becoming a key point of difference between Mr Abbott and Ms Stegall.

It was the main message in her victory speech last night.

“This is a win for moderates with a heart,” Ms Steggall said during her victory speech last night.

FEDERAL

2019

NSW marginal seats

Warringah

“Tonight Warringah has definitely voted for the future. Warringah — we have a new beginning for our environment.”

Ms Steggall vowed to be a “climate leader” who would hold the government to account when it came to tackling global warming.

“I will push for real action, so our children and generations to come can enjoy the environment and our beautiful beaches, and our beautiful country, the way we enjoy it,” she said.

In his concession speech, Mr Abbott said: “It’s also clear that in some, what might be described as wealthy seats, we’re doing tough and the green-left are doing better.

“Where climate change is a moral issue, we Liberals do it tough. Where climate change is an economic issue, as tonight shows, we do very, very well.”

Mr Abbott’s point is that voters in wealthy seats such as Warringah are able to worry more about social issues and climate change, because week-to-week money issues aren’t a problem.

Warringah may have been won on the issue of climate change, but across Australia the results last night show it isn’t as high a priority for many Aussies.

At the end of the day, voters put their personal interests ahead of climate change. Australians are more concerned about the economy, their job, their financial security than climate change.

And the lingering questions over how much Labor’s climate policy would cost the economy or how many jobs it would impact clearly cut through with voters.

The Australian Conservation Foundation said it was a “problem that the major political party that won this election did not put forward substantive climate change policies”.

“At some point Australia must reconcile the action needed to halt the climate crisis and crash of nature with our deficient national plans and policies,” it said in a statement.

In his concession speech last night, Labor leader Bill Shorten said Australia needed to take “real action on climate change”.

“I want to say to our Labor movement and our Labor Party, all of you can say this — we worked incredibly hard,” he said.

Zali Steggall has won a seat in Parliament.

“We advanced ideas. We campaigned on a positive vision. We were up-front and clear about the reforms that both sides of politics have ignored for decades.

“We have said loud and clear that Australia needs and needed to take real action on climate change.

“Clearly on climate action, amongst others, parts of our nation remain deeply divided.

“For the sake of the next generation, Australia must find a way forward on climate change.”

But last night’s results have shown again how hard it is to campaign successfully on the issue of climate change.

Mr Shorten was dogged during the election campaign by questions on how much Labor’s climate policy would cost the economy.

“It won’t have a negative effect on economic growth,” Mr Shorten tried to explain on 7.30 during the campaign.

“In fact, most of the mainstream modelling shows that our economy will continue to grow.”

But it turns out millions of Australians didn’t believe him.

While Mr Abbott’s defeat in Warringah shows that climate change can be used to win seats with a protest vote, gaining widespread support a climate policy is a few years off yet.