The seats where a recount is possible, plus “the most complex ever” vote count

The seats of Goldstein and Bradfield may have to go to a recount, while Calwell is still undecided with the count being deemed “the most complex ever”.

Two weeks after Anthony Albanese’s shock landslide election win, three seats remain in doubt and two of the most fiercely fought battles in Goldstein and Bradfield may be forced into a recount.

An influx of postal votes has shaken up the electoral races for two traditional Liberal seats – Bradfield on Sydney’s upper North Shore and Goldstein in Melbourne’s southeast.

Meanwhile, the count for the third seat of Calwell in Victoria, previously a safe Labor seat, has been deemed “the most complex ever” in election history with 13 candidates and no clear two-party breakdown.

Three seats remain unconfirmed two weeks after the Labor’s landslide election victory. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

As postal votes can be received by the Australian Electoral Commission until midnight on Friday, the outcome for Bradfield and Goldstein has become a waiting game.

On the rare occasion that the final margin is less than 100 votes – which some experts contend is a possible scenario in both seats this year – a recount is triggered.

Independent federal member for Goldstein Zoe Daniel MP is up against Liberal candidate Tim Wilson. Picture: NewsWire/ Nadir Kinani

Meanwhile, the preferential voting system is being put to the test in Melbourne’s north, where a wave of independents and minor parties have racked up votes in the seat of Calwell, making predictions almost impossible.

Bradfield

It is predicted the inner Sydney electorate of Bradfield – taking in some of the most affluent suburbs in Australia – is likely to go to a recount, with the vote margin narrowing to less than 50 votes this week.

Independent Nicolette Boele mounted a fierce campaign against Liberal MP Paul Fletcher in the 2022 federal election, winning a 12 per cent swing against him at the last election.

With Mr Fletcher announcing his retirement from politics, the Liberals put forward a new candidate – lawyer and tech executive Gisele Kapterian.

Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian holds only a razor-thin lead over independent Nicolette Boele. Picture: Newswire/ Gaye Gerard

Ms Boele has once again caused a stir in the seat – a Liberal stronghold – with Ms Kapterian holding only a razor-thin lead with 50.02 per cent over the independent, who trails closely at 49.98 per cent.

The candidates are separated by a mere 43 votes.

According to electoral rules, a recount is triggered if the margin falls below 100 votes.

Sky News chief election analyst Tom Connell anticipates the gap will remain below 100 votes, leading to a potentially lengthy recount process.

Independent Nicolette Boele mounted a fierce campaign for the second election in a row against the Liberals. Picture: NewsWire / Damian Shaw

“The duration of the recount depends on the extent to which scrutineers scrutinise the votes and debate their validity,” Mr Connell said.

“We may not ascertain the final result for this seat for several weeks.”

Goldstein

Despite Teal MP Zoe Daniel claiming victory on election night and the man she beat Liberal contender Tim Wilson doing the same days later, the inner southeastern Melbourne seat of Goldstein is still up in the air.

The AEC tally room figures on Friday showed Mr Wilson is on the path to reclaim the seat from Ms Daniel, but he is only leading by a mere 258 votes.

There are 474 ballots still pending, but this number could rise as postal votes continued to arrive on Friday ahead of the midnight deadline.

Mr Connell predicted that despite the count continuing, it would be unlikely Ms Daniel can retain her seat.

Liberal candidate for Goldstein Tim Wilson said he is feeling “very relaxed” and urged scrutineers to “knock out informal votes”. Picture: NewsWire/ Nadir Kinani

“She’s also got similar when it comes to absent votes that are early and that means she’s caught up (about) 500 votes and a similar on the other vote,” he said.

“It’s got her close, but with only at the moment a few hundreds votes left there’s no path for her to win that seat or indeed to be able to get a recount.”

Mr Wilson, who voted for the Liberal leadership in the party room on Tuesday, was declared the projected winner by Sky News.

He said he is feeling “very relaxed” and urged scrutineers to “knock out informal votes”.

Calwell

Meanwhile in Calwell – a seat encompassing Melbourne’s outer northern suburbs including Broadmeadows, Roxburgh Park and Upfield – the vote count has been deemed one of the most complex in election history.

Final results in Goldstein, Bradfield and Calwell may not be announced for weeks. Picture: Dan Peled / Newswire

A recount automatically happens if the margin is less than 100 votes. Picture: Brendan Radke

“Will the Liberal Party finish second? In which case Labor would win or does one of the independents get up and then the preference flow would be a confusing one … 13 candidates slugging it out, so it will be such a confused vote,” he said.

Labor’s candidate Basem Abdo is on 30.5 per cent over Liberals’ Usman Ghani on 15.68 per cent.

However with a significant number of votes for minor parties and independents, preference flow is a “confusing one”, according to Mr Connell.