Unimaginable problem Liberals face after election defeat

After a disastrous election loss, the Liberals face a problem that would have been unimaginable a few years ago. And they may not have the answer.

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The Liberal Party now has to decide if Saturday night’s election loss is a blip or the start of a much bigger problem.

Voters in traditional Liberal seats sent a clear message to Scott Morrison, with independents winning in North Sydney, Mackellar, Wentworth and Goldstein. And likely losses in Curtin and Kooyong, as well as Zali Steggall retaining her seat in Tony Abbott’s old electorate of Warringah.

A few years ago it would be almost unimaginable the Liberals would not hold some of these seats.

But the so-called “teal” independents campaigning on climate change action and women’s issues were able to knock off the likes of Tim Wilson and Trent Zimmerman, with Treasurer Josh Fydenberg also unlikely to be re-elected.

But how do the Liberals win back these voters?

Voters in affluent Liberal seats have not been afraid to protest vote in the past, but they usually return to the Coalition.

Kerryn Phelps won the Wentworth by-election in 2018 when Malcom Turnbull retired, but the seat in Sydney’s eastern suburbs soon voted the Liberals back in with Dave Sharma the next year.

(Mr Sharma was one of the Liberal victims on Saturday night, proving voters weren’t afraid to send another message.)

If Peter Dutton is the new Liberal leader after Scott Morrison resigned, you have to wonder how the party will get its more progressive voters to return to the fold.

Speaking on Insiders on Sunday morning, Liberal Senator Simon Birmingham said the party had been sent a clear message.

He conceded the Coalition lost votes from women, with the party needing to do more to win back female voters.

“We need to make sure we win back many more of those professionals and especially Australian women,” he said.

The Senator has been the most outspoken Coalition member since the election loss.

Well before Mr Morrison had conceded defeat, Senator Birmingham was already talking about how much of an impact the PM’s “captain’s pick” in Warringah Katherine Deves had had on votes in other seats.

“I think the 2019 election result in Warringah was a devastating one for the Liberal Party, to see a former Liberal party leader in Tony Abbott to lose there and as comprehensively as he did but to see tonight’s Liberal vote go backward and appearing to be going backwards to the tune of 7 per cent I think sends a clear message,’’ he said.

“And in the case of Warringah, we have seen the issues that are played out there.

“I think it sends a message about what Australians believe when it comes to issues of respect, of inclusion, of diversity, and the message is, Australians want people to respect their lives but they also want to have a strong and profound respect for the lives of others.

“We are seeing a strong message, and I fear that the impact in Warringah may have had something of a contagion effect on adjacent seats.”

Liberal Senator Alex Antic had an alternative view when talking on Sky News this morning.

He stressed that the “Liberal Party’s experiment with the poison of leftism and progressivism must be over. It’s as simple as that.”

“I mean, all of the people who have lost their seats were, in many cases, people who were trying to appease the climate crowd. And see what happens,” he said.

Josh Frydenberg is gone, leaving Simon Birmingham wondering who should lead.

Mr Birmingham — as the leader of the now depleted moderate wing of the Liberals — wasn’t sure who he could back as the new leader.

“To be perfectly honest, I don’t know,” he told Insiders host David Speers. “I will talk to my colleagues over the coming days and talk to them about the types of issues we have just discussed and what I think is necessary for us to rebuild, to re-establish the party in the places where we lost support.

“I will be looking to make sure that whomever takes on that role understands the task ahead and hopefully has a clear enough picture of how to go about that task and particularly how to ensure that we bring into the Liberal fold more Australian women and ensure they are pre-selected in far greater numbers so they we can ensure our party better reflects the reality of modern Australia within our rank.”

It’s hardly a ringing endorsement of Mr Dutton.

But the Liberals have few other options.

With Mr Frydenberg gone in Kooyong, the party isn’t exactly spoilt for choice.

It’s why columnist Joe Hildebrand said Labor voters in Mr Frydenberg’s seat should have voted Liberals to help save him, arguing the Treasurer holding his seat would mean a more progressive Liberal Party.

It means at a time when voters in Liberal heartland are clearly wanting the party to be more progressive, they could move more to the right under Mr Dutton.

It leaves the Liberals in a very difficult spot. But without other options, the difficult task of winning back voters in the progressive seats of Sydney and Melbourne may be left to Mr Dutton.