Predicted senate results could make life difficult for jubilant Coalition

He may be celebrating now, but life could be very difficult for Scott Morrison when he tries to push any policies through.

While there would have been a handful of sore heads among the Coalition camp after the shock election win, the government may find itself with a another round of sore heads for a very different reason.

The way the Senate is shaping up could have headache-inducing ramifications for Scott Morrison, as he tries to turn his policy promises into a reality over the next three years.

Ben Oquist, executive director of The Australia Institute, predicted last night, based on the counts so far, that the Coalition would have 34 seats in Senate.

Scott Morrison might not be grinning so much when he tries to push his policies through the senate. Picture: Brett Costello

That’s three more than it had before the election but, crucially, it’s five short of the 39 it needs to pass legislation.

Mr Oquist predicts Labor will have 27, the Greens will have nine, One Nation will have two, the Centre Alliance will have two, and Jacqui Lambie and Cory Bernardi will have one each.

This means that, if Labor and the Greens oppose a bill, the Coalition would need five of the six crossbenchers to pass legislation.

Given the conflicting views of the unpredictable crossbenchers, this could be a nightmare task.

Sydney Morning Herald political journalist David Crowe told the ABC’s Insiders that, based on the predicted results, it’s going to be “very difficult” for the Coalition to pass legislation through the Senate.

Sarah Hanson-Young has won another term on the senate. Picture: Tricia Watkinson

He predicted the government would probably be able to push its tax cuts through, with the support of Pauline Hanson and Centre Alliance, but anything after that may be a struggle.

“They can, obviously, claim the support of Cory Bernardi, but trying to get an outcome where you can get Centre Alliance and One Nation behind the same package is going to be a real challenge,” he said.

WHO MADE IT TO THE SENATE?

There are 76 senate positions in Parliament made up of 12 senators from each state and two each from the ACT and Northern Territory.

However, only 40 positions were up for re-election over the weekend — meaning Mr Bernardi, Ms Hanson and Centre Alliance senators had already made the senate.

However, Derryn Hinch, Fraser Anning, Brian Burston and Liberal Democrat senator Duncan Spender all lost their seats.

Jacqui Lambie is expected to be returned to the Senate. Picture: Chris Kidd

Former United Australia Party senator Jacqui Lambie is on track to win a seat back in the senate for Tasmania, after she was made ineligible as a result of her dual citizenship.

Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young has won a seat in South Australia, where the support for Centre Alliance collapsed by 19 per cent since Nick Xenophon led the party in 2016.

Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party didn’t win a single senate seat. Picture: AFP

This dramatic collapse also paved the way for a swing towards the two major parties in the state.

Greens senator Larissa Waters is also on track to win a seat, as are One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts and Labor senator Chris Ketter.

However, Clive Palmer, who spent up to $80 million on political advertising, has not seen his party pick up a single seat.

Fraser Anning’s high profile presence in the media has also failed to translate into a Senate seat.

Mr Anning’s party did manage to get at least 53,875 first preference votes in the lower house nationally but won’t win a seat there either.