New voters who joined the electoral roll prior to the same-sex marriage survey could impact the election
A surge in people signing up to vote in the same-sex marriage survey could have an unexpected impact on the election outcome.
More Australians than ever before are enrolled to vote with 16.4 million of us now entitled to a democracy sausage on May 18.
This week, the Australian Electoral Commission confirmed a whopping 96.8 per cent of Australians who could potentially vote are now signed up to after 100,000 people added themselves to the roll in the last few weeks.
But there’s another reason the electoral roll is now so plump and healthy — and that’s the 2017 same-sex marriage plebiscite. Then, 98,000 people put their names on the roll.
And the fear in Government circles is that could come back to haunt the Coalition.
Back in August 2017, just months before the postal survey, the AEC said it was “extraordinary” that between elections — when enrolment rates typically dip — so many people had been added. The marriage equality campaign made it very clear that one of their key tactics was to encourage younger voters to get their name on the roll. Indeed it became one of the most successful electoral recruitment drives in Australian history.
It did not go unnoticed by Coalition MPs. They were reported as being “alarmed” and “nervous” that the fresh and enthusiastic new voters would go onto punish the party, who many blamed for delaying marriage equality.
Former NSW Liberal MP Peter Phelps tweeted: “So an extra 90,000 people to vote against the Coalition in a general election … Genius”.
“This was always going to happen. They wanted the plebiscite, they should been able to see this,” one MP told the Sydney Morning Herald.
Well thank you Martiage Equality https://t.co/ap0inCntBi
— David Campbell (@DavidCampbell73) April 23, 2019
The same sex marriage plebiscite comes home to roost. https://t.co/Ig9iM8UEQy
— Charles Croucher (@ccroucher9) April 23, 2019
Indeed, when the AEC announced the increased roll on Tuesday, several commentators were making the link. Today Extra host David Campbell simply tweeted: “Well thank you Marriage Equality”.
But an analysis by news.com.au has revealed that the effect of all those new voters who signed up for the marriage equality postal vote may be less than hoped for by Labor and the Greens. In the House of Representatives, it’s unlikely to lead to large number of Liberal or National seats swapping sides.
Tony Abbott, who railed daily against same-sex marriage, won’t be felled by new voters in his seat of Warringah.
An political statistician has said the focus on new voters is “overblown” and doubts their overall effect.
However, there are a small number of seats where Yes voters could be a threat to the Coalition. In some close marginals they could boost Labor’s numbers. With parliament on a knife edge — the Coalition is ahead by a single seat — that could be all Bill Shorten needs to become prime minister.
Seats where Yes could cause a headache for the Government include Herbert in Queensland and Corangamite and Macnamara in Victoria.
LET’S LOOK AT THE NUMBERS
News.com.au delved into the data to look at the impact of the pre same-sex marriage voter jump. We didn’t look at the 100,000 who’ve been added in the last few weeks because there is always a pre-poll bump.
But the plebiscite was unique — it was a single issue surge of new electors, many of them progressive in politics, some of who might otherwise have stayed under the AEC’s radar and off the roll.
The 98,000 people that were added in 2017 was huge. And it may be one of the reasons why enrolments ahead of this election were actually down on the 132,000 additions prior to the 2016 federal poll. Overall, there are now 750,000 more voters than at the last election.
The AEC has said 88.8 per cent of potential voters aged 18-24 are now on the roll, the highest number ever.
But here’s the rub. Younger voters actually make up slightly less of the electorate than they did during the marriage survey, 10.3 per cent now compared to 10.6 per cent then. That will because some older voters will also have also have been added — think new Australian citizens — and younger voters, of course, age.
Dr Adrian Beaumont, a statistician at the University of Melbourne told news.com.au he had his doubts about the impact new voters have on election outcomes.
“I think the new enrollees thing is overblown, and won’t make much of a difference unless there is a very close seat. But we don’t know which seats will be close ahead of the election.”
However, younger voters do skew progressive.
“The oldest age groups are the most conservative, so a boost in those aged say 25-40 would still be good for the left.”
RELATED: Find out what matters with our extensive Federal Election coverage
SPECIFIC SEATS
Let’s examine things by seats. Could these new voters who joined specifically to vote in the same-sex marriage survey in August 2017 affect the election outcome in specific seats in May 2019?
Firstly, lots of those new voters packed themselves into already progressive electorates.
The seat which saw the single biggest boost in voters — 1487 — was Melbourne. That’s the only Greens lower house seat in the country and it’s one which Adam Bandt holds with a near 35,000 majority after preferences. Yes voters here will only make a Green seat even Green-ier.
The second largest number of new voters was in the seat of Brisbane. That’s held by the Liberal National (LNP)’s Trevor Evans. So is he at risk? Probably not. The LNP hold Brisbane by a not to be sniffed at 11,000 votes after preferences, around nine times the number of new voters. And, besides, Mr Evans is gay and a supporter of same-sex marriage.
WHAT ABOUT MARGINAL SEATS, THEN?
The only seat where the number of new voters pre-postal survey outnumbers the margin that separates the parties is in Herbert, which covers Townsville.
Here, 819 new voters signed up in 2017 and just 37 votes divide Labor from the LNP. In Herbert, 66 per cent of the electorate, which equates to 540 new voters, ticked Yes. If they all voted Labor — and that’s a big if — and everybody else voted the same that could take Herbert from terrifyingly marginal for the ALP to just worryingly marginal. Crucially it would keep the seat in the Labor column.
But Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is a wildcard in this seat and could funnel second preferences to the LNP.
Almost 1100 new voters in Macnamara, formerly Melbourne Ports, could help Labor retain this marginal particularly as at 82 per cent it had the third highest Yes vote nationwide.
With a majority of 6165 for the Libs Corangamite, which skirts around Geelong, would ordinarily be safe. But a boundary change means it is now a marginal seat and very much in play.
Almost 800 new voters and a 72 per cent Yes votes could help Shorten drag Corangamite to his side.
In many close seats the number of new voters is relatively small compared to the margin. But in seats like Capricornia, Yes voters could chip away at the Liberal’s majority.
Anna Brown is the chief executive officer of LGBTI campaign group Equality Australia.
She told news.com.au, the postal survey had “galvanised” people and made the more engaged with the political process.
“The postal survey was divisive and distressing, but one silver lining is that it engaged people, particularly young people, in politics in a positive way and hopefully this will have a lasting impact not only for this election but for politics in this country into the future.
“For many of our supporters it was the first time they had door knocked, volunteered or been involved in a political campaign,” said Ms Brown.
WILL MPs WHO BARRACKED FOR NO BE AFFECTED?
Finally, will any anti-same sex marriage MPs be felled by Yes voters? Unlikely.
Take Mr Abbott, the architect of the survey. His majority of 53,000 in Warringah, on Sydney’s north shore, far outweighs the 757 new voters who crowded into his patch in 2017.
He should be more worried that 75 per cent of voters in his seat voted Yes. If some of them think his No stance means he’s now out of touch they could whittle down his majority.
Bob Katter? Nah, a mere 495 new voters joined the roll in Kennedy in 2017, a seat he holds by almost 20k.
Peter Dutton has reason to worry — a bit. He has a relatively modest majority of 2,911 while 897 people joined the roll in his Dickson electorate in 2017.
The LNP’s Bert van Manen could be on shakier ground. He campaigned against redefining marriage and abstained during the marriage equality vote. His seat of Forde, south of Brisbane, has a majority of 1,062 and new voters in his seat totalled 763 new voters, that’s the equivalent of 72 per cent of his majority, 61 per cent of those voted yes.
That in itself brings up a good point. Just because someone enthusiastically joined the roll prior to the same-sex marriage vote doesn’t mean they voted Yes. Nationwide, at least a third of people voted No.
And, of course, it’s an assumption to think all Yes voters will go onto vote for Labor or the Greens at the election. It’s perfectly possible to be all for same-sex marriage and all against the Opposition’s election commitments.
But the figures suggest while the effect of newly minted Yes voters might be less than expected, it could help cause a few upsets. And with the Coalition on a majority of one, that might be all that’s needed.
And in the Senate? Well with that even more divided than the Reps so those new voters could be bad news for the Coalition too.
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