Liberal loss that shows Scott Morrison ‘screwed’ the election

An anti-Scott Morrison vote is to blame for the Coalition’s election loss, and a key loss in one Queensland seat sums up what went wrong.

As the dust settles on a whirlwind election weekend, it’s becoming clearer who exactly were the big winners and (even bigger) losers on the night.

The most obvious winners were Labor and the new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who took home the keys to The Lodge and Kirribilli House.

But news.com.au’s political editor Samantha Maiden says it was less of a win by Labor and more of a “screw up” by Scott Morrison and the Liberal Party, with a key loss in one Queensland seat summing up what went wrong.

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The Labor win has been credited to a mass ‘anti-Scott Morrison vote’ this election. Picture: Jason Edwards

“I very much think it was the Liberal party that lost it,” she told news.com.au’s I’ve Got News For You podcast. “You can see that, arguably, in the primary vote.

“If the Labor Party had won this election fair and square by themselves, you would expect to see a big swing to the Labor Party. That didn’t happen.”

Despite a “big swing” of around 6 per cent against the Liberal Party, she says it didn’t “neatly transfer” to Labor, which only claimed 30 per cent of first-preference votes.

“It went to the independents, went to the teals, in some cases even went to the Greens,” she said, referring to the the Queensland seat of Ryan in Brisbane’s leafy inner western suburbs, which was snatched by the Greens from the Liberal Party.

“So that tells you that there’s something going on, that it isn’t simply about the Labor Party winning. It’s about the Prime Minister Scott Morrison, really, screwing it up.”

It became apparent in the early stages of vote counting that the Coalition’s tally would not catch up to Labor. Especially not with Greens and independents snatching key seats from major party candidates.

As of Monday, Labor had secured the 76-seat majority, and the Coalition had 54 seats. The Greens had won three seats, and 10 independents claimed seats – including “giant killer” Monique Ryan (ousting former treasurer Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong), Zoe Daniel in Goldstein, and Allegra Spender in Wentworth.

‘Teal’ independent Monique Ryan won Kooyong. Picture: Sam Tabone/Getty

Josh Frydenberg was the long-running incumbent. Picture: David Caird

Maiden said it was a “historic” and “wild” election, unlike any other in recent history, that was driven by a “grassroots revolt” led, predominantly, by women.

“There was clearly a mood for change. And there was clearly a vote for a progressive government,” she said, adding that the classic two-party-preferred system of voting, essentially, flew out the window in favour of preferencing minor candidates.

“The data is pretty clear that it was also a defeat that was driven by women,” she continued. “It was women who decided that they weren’t happy with what was on offer. It was women who helped to elect a record number of female independents. And it was women who were also a deciding factor in the fact that of … seats that changed hands, a dozen or more of those were won by women.”

Ultimately, it was the major issues of character and culture that dogged Mr Morrison – a mid-bushfire Hawaiian holiday, the failed vaccine rollout, and, especially, the allegations of sexual harassment and abuse at Parliament House that sparked the March4Justice – and were ultimately his undoing.

There was no one else to blame for the loss, Maiden said, than Mr Morrison – “because he’s the leader, the fish rots from the head”.

And although he has quit as Liberal leader the stink of this “anti-Scott Morrison vote” could linger on the party for a while. Especially if he sticks around in parliament.

“The history of prime ministers that stick around (after losing) has not been great, and particularly in this election … you would think that he would want to get out of parliament,” Maiden said. “The question is: what does he do?”

Not much, she says, except perhaps keep his head down and quietly help the party rebuild after the shocking defeat.

Liberal member for Dickson Peter Dutton is the frontrunner to take over Liberal leadership. Picture: Zak Simmonds

While Peter Dutton is the party’s likely next leader, Maiden said the key to a successful opposition — much like it did in the election itself — lies with women.

“My personal view is that they (the Liberals) should find a suitable, credible and meritorious woman to run as deputy,” she said.

“They had a deputy, a female deputy leader in Julie Bishop for many, many years. They drop that for the Josh Frydenberg and Scott Morrison show, and … is suggested that that has not been a fantastic combination.

“So they’re going to have to do a lot more about getting serious women into the Liberal Party rather than allowing them to end up like Allegra Spender and others basically running against the Libs in inner-city, wealthy, leafy eastern suburbs seats.”