How the tide has turned against Tony Abbott

Tony Abbott was jeered and booed during his debate with rival Zali Steggall, but this is not the only bad sign for the Warringah MP.

It should have been Tony’s territory.

The Queenscliff Surf Life Saving Club is where Tony Abbott has volunteered for more than a decade, it’s where he’s conducted patrols in his red budgie smugglers and finds camaraderie among its down-to-earth members.

But yesterday that sense of ease, of being among friends, was very publicly eroded.

When Mr Abbott stepped up to take on his rival, independent Zali Steggall, during a debate hosted by Sky News and The Manly Daily, he was greeted with jeers, boos and laughter.

The room was overwhelmingly on the side of his challenger.

When news.com.au did a quick survey of some of the audience members, it was difficult to find any Liberal supporters among the 100-odd people.

In some ways it’s not terribly surprising, election forums are often an opportunity for the discontented to vent.

However, tickets for the showdown were snapped up within 24 hours, an indication of the high level of interest in this year’s contest in an area that has traditionally been resigned to the status quo.

What should also be sending a chill down the spine of the Liberal Party is one admission from a local resident in the room that night.

The Queenscliff man, who is an Abbott supporter, didn’t want to be identified but gave news.com.au an insight into just how much the tide has turned against Mr Abbott.

“In my family there were four Liberal voters but that’s changed,” he said. “Now there are three votes for Zali. My wife and two sons are voting for Zali.”

The man still supports Mr Abbott but is also wavering. He describes the sentiment against Mr Abbott as partly the feeling that “time’s up”. Despite all the volunteering that Mr Abbott does in the electorate there’s also a sense he hasn’t done enough locally and of an “arrogance” that has developed from being the local MP for more than 20 years.

Equally there’s a desire for change and a fresh start.

When asked whether he was surprised by his reception at the debate, Mr Abbott told news.com.au: “Ah look, there was a very lively reception outside and there was a lively reception inside”. He said he “absolutely” thought he still had a good chance of winning.

But despite his confidence, the turnout at the debate is just the latest sign that Mr Abbott’s time as the local MP may soon be coming to an end.

RELATED: Audience turns on Tony Abbott during debate

Tony Abbott struggled to get the audience onside at the Queenscliff Surf Life Saving Club. Picture: Damian Shaw/News Corp Australia.

‘EXCITED TO HAVE A CHOICE’

The first sign of trouble appeared after the leadership spill that turfed then-prime minister Malcolm Turnbull out of the top job.

Mr Abbott had always enjoyed strong support in his local community on Sydney’s northern beaches, regardless of how much others around Australia mocked his onion-eating ways. But almost overnight there seemed to be a change.

“His name is mud at the moment … I voted for him but never again,” one Manly woman told news.com.au in August last year.

She wasn’t the only one. Many others showed the same disgust for the turmoil that turned the Liberal Party upside down and suddenly Mr Abbott looked on shakier ground than he had ever seemed before.

For a leader who once told his colleagues “sometimes it’s better to ask forgiveness than permission”, Mr Abbott is now facing that unthinkable notion that his electorate’s indulgence of him could be at an end.

Numerous anti-Abbott groups have sprung up in the electorate and for the first time, he is now facing a serious challenger in his seat of Warringah.

Manly locals say they’ve never seen this level of political engagement in an area where even the most critical of Mr Abbott have also acknowledged that he enjoyed overwhelming support as the local MP.

Mr Abbott holds Warringah with a 11 per cent margin and many would have thought this was unassailable — that was until independent Kerryn Phelps secured a shock win in the blue-ribbon seat of Wentworth, which retiring Liberal MP Malcolm Turnbull had held with a 17 per cent margin.

Now Mr Abbott is in what he has described as the “fight of my life” to hang on to his seat and political career.

Internal Liberal Party polling done in the electorate ahead of the election being called was reportedly “diabolically bad” for Mr Abbott.

In an interview with news.com.au Ms Steggall said her campaign had also done polling around the same time and its results were “consistent” with this assessment.

Now that pre-polling has begun, Ms Steggall said the reaction from voters at the booths had so far been “really positive”.

“I think they are overwhelmingly excited to have a choice,” she said.

“The high turnout at pre-polling suggests people have already made up their minds and know what they want. In Warringah I think they overwhelmingly want change.”

Ms Steggall said she thinks a combination of inaction on climate change, Mr Abbott’s constant obstruction of policies including the National Energy Guarantee and the complete lack of replacement policy, the deposing of Mr Turnbull as prime minister and disillusionment with the major parties has seen support go to independents.

RELATED: How Warringah voters feel about Tony Abbott

RELATED: Meet Zali Steggall

Zali Steggall believes the residents of Warringah are ready for change. Picture: Mark Scott/AAP

A SIGN OF CONFIDENCE

There is no question Ms Steggall stands a chance of winning. The bright aqua shirts of her supporters can be seen everywhere and she now has more than 1100 volunteers, which is a staggering achievement for a first-time candidate.

Ms Steggall said about 95 per cent of her volunteers were locals but it was not unusual for some to be from outside the electorate. Mr Abbott too, has his outsider volunteers, with one of his placard-waving supporters outside the debate on Thursday afternoon, a ring-in from Strathfield.

Money also doesn’t seem to be a problem for Ms Steggall, another sign of confidence in her candidacy. Wealthy residents are hosting fundraisers and even volunteering for her. Ms Steggall confirmed that she had received about 1000 donations averaging about $250 each and said about 90 per cent of these had come from locals.

However, when news.com.au spoke to voters in Manly on the day the election was called, there was still some caution about embracing this new face. While they saw Ms Steggall, a former Olympic skier and lawyer, as accomplished and approved of her stance on climate change, they didn’t know much else about her.

Two other residents who both nominated environment and climate change as their top issues, said they were leaning towards voting for Ms Steggall but had not decided yet.

Allambie resident Lyn Snailham, 57 said Ms Steggall seemed to be more forward-thinking and understood the climate issue but she wasn’t yet sure about her as she’s “very new”.

However, she was disappointed in Mr Abbott’s campaign and its focus on connecting Ms Steggall to Labor.

“It doesn’t actually tell me anything about what he stands for and what he’s going to do,” he said.

Freshwater resident David Cooper, 54, thought the electorate needed a “fresh start” and didn’t like Mr Abbott because he was a “career politician” and an “attack-dog type of politician” but wasn’t quite ready to commit to Ms Steggall.

“I’m leaning towards Zali Steggall, she’s a new start and has a very genuine approach to the environment and local communities. I like her,” he said.

Zali Steggall's volunteer army

THE LABOR PROBLEM

In what has probably been the most telling sign of how close the contest is, the campaign on both sides has been ugly at times.

Advance Australia, the conservatives’ answer to GetUp, recently disowned a “sexualised” video clip of its mascot Captain GetUp rubbing up against a billboard of Ms Steggall, saying it was posted in error.

Residents are also getting letterbox drops suggesting that a vote for Ms Steggall is really a vote for Labor and the Liberals accuse her of being secretly funded by the left-wing lobby group GetUp.

Ms Steggall has repeatedly denied she’s getting any money from GetUp, which some have accused of being a front for Labor and the Greens. GetUp also says it has no financial links to any political party and the Australian Electoral Commission has also declared that it is not associated with any political party.

The accusations of a Labor link have the potential to be damaging. According to The Daily Telegraph, a voice response poll of 2000 people in Warringah conducted last month for the Abbott campaign found 70 per cent of voters who were considering voting independent had “serious concerns” about backing a candidate likely to support Labor or the Greens.

Ms Steggall told news.com.au that she has never voted for Labor and during the debate on Thursday she confirmed her preference would be to guarantee supply and confidence to a Coalition government. However, when it comes to legislation, her priority is climate change.

When it comes to Labor links, Ms Steggall has confirmed that her campaign manager is Anthony Reed, a veteran Labor Party operative and the mastermind behind Dr Phelps’ victory in Wentworth.

She told news.com.au Mr Reed was not a member of Labor at the moment and indicated his involvement was more about necessity than alignment.

“Maybe it sounds obvious but no one who traditionally works for the Liberals was willing to work with an independent taking on an ex-Liberal prime minister,” she said.

The independent also noted that Mr Reed was helping with the operational aspects of the campaign such as organising volunteers, filling out forms and ensuring compliance with Australian Electoral Commission requirements.

“When it comes to positions on policies, they’re mine,” she said.

Ms Steggall said she had sought the opinion of experts to inform her policies and “it was not a matter of influence of my campaign team”.

Certainly Ms Steggall is presenting herself as economic conservative and has distanced herself from Labor policies like its proposed changes to negative gearing, capital gains tax and franking credits. She does however, support its climate change policy and wants it to go further.

‘OTHER CONTENDERS ARE SHALLOW THINKERS’

There’s no denying that Ms Steggall’s campaign has momentum but Mr Abbott is still a popular member and many conservative voters may still feel uncomfortable about abandoning the Liberal Party regardless of what they think of their local MP.

Freshwater resident Trevor Bourne, 81 told news.com.au he was a “Liberal man through and through” even though he thought it was time for Mr Abbott to go.

“I think Tony is at the stage now where he ought to let somebody else take over his position locally and federally,” he said. “I think he ought to pack up his bags now.”

However, neither him or his wife Pamela had any intention of voting for anyone else.

“I just like the fact that the Liberals have always been able to steady the ship,” he said.

“Mr Shorten and his mob tend to be very unstable in my opinion.”

Manly resident James St Clair, 35, had a similar view, saying he didn’t necessarily agree with everything Mr Abbott said but was more against having a Shorten Government.

“I think he’s been a public servant for a long time, he’s a Rhodes scholar, he’s obviously been successful and been PM.”

A Balgowlah Heights couple aged in their 60s who only wanted to be known as Greg and Sue, were also sticking by Mr Abbott.

“Other contenders in the marketplace, in my opinion, are shallow thinkers, they’ll say what is popular at the moment, but when challenged on a greater breadth and depth of knowledge, are left wanting,” Greg said.

During Thursday afternoon’s debate, even Ms Steggall’s supporters acknowledged that Mr Abbott performed well.

“You could see the difference between the 25-year ex-prime minister politician who knows the game, he knows how to perform and Zali, (who’s) much younger (and) not politically experienced in that way,” Chris, a Mosman resident told news.com.au.

“She came across very genuinely, he came across very professionally as a politician.”

Warringah candidates Tony Abbott and Zali Steggall at the Sky News/Manly Daily debate. Picture: Damian Shaw/News Corp Australia.

ABBOTT’S ADVANTAGE

Mr Abbott also looks like he may have another small advantage after being placed ahead of Ms Steggall on the ballot paper.

The former PM was drawn in sixth spot, while Ms Steggall placed eighth.

Election analyst Kevin Bonham has said a higher place on a ballot paper represented about a 0.5 point advantage for a major party candidate. This is partly from people who cast a donkey vote by numbering the candidates from top to bottom.

Mr Abbott also looks set to get a boost from Clive Palmer’s candidate in the seat, Suellen Wrightson, who has indicated she wants to preference the Liberals above Ms Steggall, according to The Guardian.

Recently Sportsbet returned Mr Abbott as the favourite to win the seat with odds of $1.68, compared to Ms Steggall on $2.15. Earlier this month it had Ms Steggall as the favourite to win on odds of $1.66 compared to Mr Abbott on $2.15.

According to The Daily Telegraph, campaign advisers are now claiming Mr Abbott may get a poll boost from a much-criticised GetUp ad that featured a look-a-like who refused to help a drowning man.

Last week Ms Steggall was forced to condemn the ad, which was criticised for being offensive to surf lifesavers.

On Thursday Mr Abbott also complained about offensive posters plastered around the electorate and said that politics in Australia had reached a “new nastiness”.

Several caricatured heads with expletives written across the former prime minister’s forehead were found on walls in Manly, Mosman and Seaforth on Thursday morning. Others were emblazoned with the word “Pell”.

Ms Steggall strongly rejected any suggestion that she, her campaign or volunteers had anything to do with the posters.

A poster on Manly Road near the Spit Bridge. Picture: Richard Dobson

‘GROWING ENTHUSIASM’ FOR CHANGE

As the election date nears, Ms Steggall says she believes there is “growing enthusiasm” for her campaign.

She dismisses the Sportsbet odds and says it was possible for one big bet change to change the results. Ms Steggall is also not too worried about Mr Palmer’s candidate who doesn’t even live in the area.

“I have participated in a number of forums and candidate events and Greens, Labor, myself and (independent) Susan Moylan are pretty much the only ones present,” she said.

“Apart from him (Mr Palmer) splashing money, he’s got very little relevance to the electorate.”

Ms Steggall will be preferenced above the Liberal Party on Labor and Green tickets but she will not be preferencing anyone.

“As a true independent I’ll leave it to voters to determine their preferences as they want,” she said.

Mr Abbott has previously said the battle for Warringah would be “the most fiercely contested political territory in the country”.

Locals will soon decide whether it’s still Tony’s to defend.

Warringah candidates Tony Abbott and Zali Steggall shake hands at the end of the Sky News/Manly Daily Debate at Queenscliff Surf Club. Picture: Damian Shaw/ News Corp Australia.

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