Federal election results 2016: Postal votes push Coalition closer to win

LATEST RESULTS: The Coalition is making gains in the seat count, picking up Dunkley, and turning its vote around in another.

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull leaves his house today. Picture: David Moir/AAP

THE Coalition is making gains in the seat count with the Liberals picking up two Victorian seats, and turning its vote around in one other electorate.

The ABC’s election computer has changed its seat prediction to give the Victorian seats of Dunkley and Chisholm to the Liberal Party. It has also placed the Queensland seat of Flynn, where Labor was leading, to join those in doubt.

The computer has increased the Coalition’s count to 72 seats, while Labor has dropped to 66 seats. The parties need 76 to form government. The number of seats in doubt has grown to seven.

The change came as the Australian Electoral Commission’s vote count continued today, increasing the lead of Liberal Chris Crewther in Dunkley, from 421 votes earlier this morning, to 1387 votes.

The Liberal party also managed to improve its lead in Chisholm, where Labor’s Stefanie Perri was giving Julia Banks a run for her money. A gap of 362 votes grew to 759 votes today and the commission has removed Chisholm from its list of “close seats”.

It has also removed the NSW seat of Gilmore, where the Liberal candidate is now leading by 991 votes. There are now only three close seats left on the commission website: Herbert, Hindmash and Forde.

The Liberal party has also taken the lead in Forde, Queensland but only by 130 votes. However, the result is promising for the Coalition’s chances of forming a majority government, and reflects expectations that postal votes will swing towards the Coalition.

Malcolm Turnbull looks pleased as he leaves his house earlier today. Picture: David Moir

Less than 1000 votes separate the candidates in the seats in doubt according to the AEC (as of 6.25pm AEST):

• Capricornia, Queensland — Labor ahead by 905 votes

• Cowan, Western Australia — Labor ahead by 777 votes

• Forde, Queensland — Liberal has overtaken Labor, and is now ahead by 264 votes

• Gilmore, NSW — Liberal ahead by 991 votes

• Herbert, Queensland — Labor improves its lead to 620 votes.

• Hindmarsh, South Australia — Labor is still ahead but its lead has almost halved to 151

• Flynn, Queensland — Labor is ahead by 1065 votes

The AEC has also cleared its list of “not yet determined” seats, and added these to the totals of the major parties.

Its count stands at 74 seats for the Coalition, 71 for Labor, one for the Greens and four for other independents.

RELATED: Why are everyone’s seat counts different?

PM MEETS WITH XENOPHON

Malcolm Turnbull has also met with independent Nick Xenophon to discuss the future of South Australia’s steelworks.

Senator Xenophon, whose team has won a lower house seat and is likely to hold a number of Senate seats in the new parliament, said after the Sydney meeting the prime minister was “receptive” to supporting the steel industry.

“I’m happy enough - I think we will keep talking,” he told Sky News.

Nick Xenophon met with the PM today. Pic: Tricia Watkinson

CORY BERNARDI GOES ROGUE

Controversial senator Cory Bernardi has published a blog post to unite conservatives in a movement and make sure “our voice is never taken for granted again”.

The post, which described the election campaign as a “disaster”, asked people to kickstart the movement by registering at www.conservatives.org.au.

It fuelled speculation he wanted to start his own breakaway conservative political party but he has since clarified he wants to work within the Liberal Party, according to SkyNews.

Senator Cory Bernardi

THE WORDS TURNBULL MAY REGRET

Days before Australians hit the polls last weekend, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull made an admission that looks almost certain to come back to bite him.

Appearing on ABC’s Kitchen Cabinet, Mr Turnbull was forced to confront the possibility of a hung parliament.

Asked by host Annabel Crabb if he was worried by the possibility of election results producing anything other than a majority Coalition government, he made the prospect of a hung parliament sound positively nightmarish.

“Leaving aside political self interest, I think Australia needs continued stable, majority government, and honestly, the only way that will emerge from this election is if my government is returned,” he said.

But the real gotcha moment came when Crabb asked the PM if a Labor government would be better than a hung parliament.

“You would be better off with a majority government on either side than having a hung parliament,” he said.

Even a Labor govt would be better than a hung parliament, the PM conceded on Kitchen Cabinet. Hmmm pic.twitter.com/KBui8Aj2LL

— Annabel Crabb (@annabelcrabb) July 6, 2016

A Coalition-led minority government was looking increasingly likely this morning as the grindingly slow process of counting votes from Saturday’s federal election continued.

The Prime Minister has had to come to terms with the outlook, beginning to court crossbenchers who will be the Parliament’s potential kingmakers. Whichever party gains the highest number of seats will rely on them for support.

Australian Electoral Commission workers will today begin to count a million postal votes.

CLOSE SEATS

The Liberal-held WA seat of Cowan looked like a Labor gain on election night but its candidate Anne Aly might get run down by postal votes by the time the counting of postal votes is complete.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is as frustrated as the rest of us at the grindingly slow counting process. Picture: William West/AFP

The deradicalisation-expert-turned-Labor-candidate claimed to be the victim of a Liberal-led smear campaign during the campaign, and the controversy around the race for the marginal seat continues.

Reports have surfaced that up to 150 votes in the knife-edge Perth seat of Cowan were not properly signed off by a poll officer, potentially voiding them.

Sky News also reported that votes had not been stored properly in Cowan, where Ms Aly was narrowly leading Liberal MP Luke Simpkins by just 750 votes at last count.

But the AEC says it has not had any reports of unsigned or voided ballots in the electorate that could prompt a recount.

The AEC said even if votes had not been signed, there was a procedure to verify the votes so they were not voided.

EARLIER TODAY

Of the six seats the AEC has declared close, Herbert and Forde in Queensland, Chisholm and Dunkley in Victoria, Hindmarsh in South Australia and Gilmore in NSW, five are Liberal-held and were expected to stay in the hands of the Coalition.

Veteran ABC election expert Antony Green said this morning that it was still possible the Coalition could form a majority government, but a hung parliament was more likely.

“They have got a definite 73 (or) 74,” he said of the Coalition.

“We have seen counting in Chisholm in Melbourne which firmed up the Liberal position; everyone expects that to be won by the Liberal Party. Hindmarsh became more narrow in SA and Cowan in WA.

“A couple of the Queensland seats narrowed, and the postal vote issue is more prominent in Queensland, you’ve got rural areas where the stronger postal vote is helping the LNP pull back in some of those seats.”

The ABC’s Antony Green believes the Coalition will have more seats than Labor.

Speaking on ABC News Breakfast, Mr Green also commented on the slowness of the count, suggesting electronic pre-poll voting could help speed up the process in the future.

The Prime Minister said the results are still a week away.

A humbled Mr Turnbull faced the media yesterday, saying he’d heard the message of the Australian people and would look at how to address the concerns.

“I want to make it quite clear that as Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Party, I take full responsibility for our campaign,” he told media in Sydney.

Mr Turnbull said the outcome was still unclear and he expected up to three million votes to be added to the count over the next few days.

SEATS STILL IN DOUBT

Capricornia (Nationals QLD): Sitting MP Michelle Landry is trailing by 994 votes in this Rockhampton-based seat. In 2013, postals flowed strongly to the Nats to give them a narrow victory. It could easily happen again.

Cowan (Liberal WA): Looked like a Labor gain on election night but its candidate Anne Aly might get run down by postal votes by the time the count is finalised on Friday week. Sitting Liberal MP Luke Simpkins picked up 62 per cent of them in 2013. That would be more than enough to make up the 750 votes he’s behind at the moment.

Forde (LNP QLD): Labor’s Des Hardman leads sitting MP Bert van Manen by 104 votes in this Logan electorate south of Brisbane. Postals likely to favour the Libs. Too close to call.

Gilmore (Liberal NSW): Liberal Ann Sudmalis leads by 353 votes. Postals likely to get her over the line in this NSW south coast seat.

Herbert (LNP QLD): Sitting MP Ewen Jones is trailing Labor’s Cathy O’Toole by 694 votes, but the race is far from over in the Townsville-based seat. Postals, especially from defence personnel, will strongly flow to Jones. Line-ball.

Hindmarsh (Liberal SA): Former Labor MP Steve Georganas leads by 347 votes. Sitting MP Matt Williams will have to rely on postals in this Adelaide seat. Down to the wire.