Energy regulator warns of possible power outages across SA, Victoria during El Nino summer

The energy regulator has warned some states are facing the possibility of power outages this summer amid forecasted drier and warmer conditions.

The country’s electricity regulator has warned of an increased risk of rolling blackouts this summer across South Australia and Victoria amid drier, warmer conditions.

In its 2023 Electricity Statement of Opportunities Report (ESOO), the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) blamed insufficient investment for the possible outages.

AEMO chief executive Daniel Westerman said Australia needed to urgently expedite its energy transition to meet future demands.

The AEMO’s 2023 ESOO warned of possible blackouts across South Australia and Victoria. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Andrew Henshaw

“Over the 10-year outlook, we continue to forecast reliability gaps, which are mostly due to the expectation that 62 per cent of today’s coal fleet will retire by 2033,” he said.

“To ensure Australian consumers continue to have access to reliable electricity supplies, it’s critical that planned investments in transmission, generation and storage projects are urgently delivered.”

The Grattan Institute’s energy program director Tony Wood told 3AW on Thursday morning that this summer would be “particularly nasty”.

“Victoria is in the worst position, I think, partly because the weather patterns tend to be really short, sharp heatwaves, whereas in other parts of the country it’s hotter for longer,” he said.

“This is a report saying, ‘here is the risk’, they’re not saying we’re going to (have blackouts).

“They’re using a level of probability … which is much stricter than it used to be … under the new standard.

“We still have the opportunity to get this under control … but we need to get on top of this … and get this investment happening.”

The report called for urgent investment in energy transmission, generation and storage projects. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Jeremy Piper

Approximately 20 per cent of today’s older coal and gas fleets, such as the recently decommissioned Liddell Power Station, have already been notified to retire.

Lower costs associated with wind and solar generation are also challenging coal and gas plants.

In particular, the summer of 2023-24 is expected to bring even higher risks of power outages due to the forecast El Nino likely to develop during spring.

This will likely bring hotter and drier conditions, increasing the demand for electricity.

“Our old coal-fired power stations are retiring, at the same time as demand for electricity is increasing,” the ESOO Statement of Opportunities read.

“Without urgent and sustained investment in new sources of electricity, and the transmission needed to connect it to consumers, there are significant risks to reliability.

“Planned generation, storage and transmission, supported by government programs, must be delivered urgently, with any delay likely to put reliability at risk over the coming decade.”

This year’s forecast El Nino is set to bring warmer and drier weather, increasing the demand for electricity. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Jeremy Piper

The Bureau of Meteorology said the forecast El Nino would likely bring warmer and drier conditions across large parts of the country from September to November.

For southern coastal locations such as Adelaide and Melbourne, individual daily heat extremes tend to be more intense during an El Nino.