Criminologist’s theory behind the immense public interest in Samantha Murphy’s disappearance

More than 40,000 Australians are reported missing every year, but few capture the nation’s attention like Samantha Murphy. Here’s why.

It’s an image etched into the mind of the Australian public.

A middle-aged woman in her workout gear and her sandy blonde hair tied up in a messy ponytail, in the driveway of her home about to go for a morning run. It was the last sighting of Samantha Murphy, captured on CCTV footage outside her house.

Each year there are 40,000 missing person reports in Australia. Most are solved within days.

And rarely do they capture public attention like Ms Murphy, the suburban mum of three who disappeared on February 4 after leaving home to go on her routine morning jog.

Despite major search efforts by missing persons squad investigators, specialist commands and hundreds of locals to Ballarat – the rural Victorian town she vanished from – no trace of her has been found.

Criminologist Associate Professor Xanthe Mallett from the University of Newcastle described the level of interest in Ms Murphy’s disappearance as unprecedented.

Samantha Murphy left her Ballarat home on February 4 Picture: Supplied

No trace of her has been found since.

“It is only very occasionally that a missing person case strikes a chord like this,” she told news.com.au.

Dr Mallett described Ms Murphy as the “ideal victim” in the eye of the public, because as far as Australians knew, she had been living a “totally innocent” life.

The perception engenders public sympathy according to Dr Mallett, who compared the level of concern for Ms Murphy to missing children William Tyrrell and Cleo Smith.

“When a very normal, very average woman disappears, that causes fear,” she said.

She is incredibly relatable for a lot of women of that age. By all accounts she was doing a normal activity that involved no risk.

“A lot of people could say, ‘that could have been me’,” Dr Mallett said.

“They want it to be solved because they need to understand why it happened as a protective factor”.

Dr Mallett proposed that ethnicity also played a role in the public’s interest in the missing mum case, revealing she was not invited to give any media interviews when three Korean nationals were allegedly murdered in western Sydney recently.

In the first 10 days of Ms Murphy’s disappearance however, she did multiple media interviews every day.

She argued that as the alleged murders of Sydney couple Jesse Baird and Luke Davies continued to dominate daily headlines, interest in the Korean family was fading.

A comprehensive search has found no trace of Ms Murphy.

“Everybody wants Samantha to be found but the case has a higher chance of being solved because it is on the front page every day encouraging people to be emotionally invested,” she said.

Former NSW detective Duncan McNab told news.com.au the missing mum case was the “stuff of mysteries”.

“The search has been comprehensive but there hasn’t been one skerrick of evidence, it is like she has disappeared into thin air. It is very unusual.”

Mr McNab said police should always “suspect foul play and hope for a better outcome” in missing persons cases.

“Modern policing aids investigations, CCTV, phone towers, pings, back in the dark ages you had to rely on what people saw,” he said.

“I would imagine they are not seeing phone activity or bank activity … so probably foul play becomes quite prominent.”

The lack of evidence, Mr McNab said, is also revealing.

“Why has no CCTV cameras in the neighbourhood picked her up?” he asked.

Victoria Police declined a news.com.au request for interview.

In the absence of evidence, a number of theories have been floating around.

Volunteers have organised a large scale search to look for any sign of missing woman Samantha Murphy in bushland near Ballarat where she has gone missing. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Crosling

Mineshaft theory

Ballarat is 75 minutes west of Melbourne and is Victoria’s third largest city, historically known for its gold mining.

There are more 5000 mine shafts, some 100m deep that are hidden beneath Ballarat. Some have speculated Ms Murphy might have fallen down one by accident.

Local woman Sissy Austin, who was attacked nearby by an unknown man in February last year, said she didn’t believe Ms Murphy fell down a mineshaft.

“All the locals know how to navigate the terrain without falling down a mineshaft,” Ms Austin said.

Family speaks

Days after Ms Murphy disappeared, her eldest daughter, Jess, issued an impassioned plea, saying: “I know she’s out there somewhere. So if you could please continue to search for her to give us something to work with. We really appreciate it. Mum, we love you so much and we miss you. We need you at home with us. Please come home soon”.

Behind the emotional daughter, was Ms Murphy’s husband, Mick.

Mick Murphy and daughter Jess Murphy, speak to media outside Ballarat West Police Station. Picture: NCA Newswire / Nicki Connolly

Victoria Police are now “very doubtful” Ms Murphy is alive.

Police Commissioner Shane Patton described the situation as “suspicious” because police haven’t been able to locate any trace or find any leads.

Veteran crime reporter John Silvester ignited sinister speculation earlier this week when he suggested that among selfless locals searching for Ms Murphy, someone with ill-intent could be lurking.

“Police will also be considering that one of those searchers is the (alleged) killer in that they have inculcated themselves into that situation to be seen as part of the community, but also keeping an eye on what’s going on,” he explained.

Tim Watson-Munro, a veteran forensic psychologist whose job is to get inside the mind of a criminal, said body language “isn’t a precise science, there is a danger in people reading too much into body language”.

“Body language in isolation is dangerous,” he said, adding it is probably the “least important factor” in a multi-factorial investigation.

He also refused to rule out that Ms Murphy had a stalker because “stalkers love routine”.

The last sighting of Ms Murphy captured on CCTV footage outside her house. Picture: Supplied

“You can’t rule it out,” he said.

“Age has not a lot to do with it. What drives these people is the need to control, it is all about power and lust. They get their joys when they are in powerful positions and lording it over people.”

New evidence

While police have released new information about a suspicious, damaged car in the area at the time, they have otherwise held leads close to their chest.

“To the public it looks like it has gone quiet,” Dr Mallett said.

“But police will only release information when it is investigatively beneficial to do so.”

A bushfire threat for the Ballarat region has meant a massive search by volunteers has been called off.

As the community waits for answers, more detectives have been called in to investigate the disappearance.