Comparison to UK and US shows how many deaths Australia has avoided

About half of Australia’s population is in lockdown and we are facing a long winter but one figure brings home how lucky we still are.

About half of Australia’s population are in lockdown and many businesses are suffering but a simple calculation has shown how lucky the country is compared to others.

Professor Mikhail Prokopenko, director of the University of Sydney’s Centre for Complex Systems, looked at the number of deaths in the United States and United Kingdom to estimate how many deaths would have happened in Australia if it had taken the same path.

“Many people don’t appreciate this and it explains some of the complacency but lockdowns do save lives,” Prof Prokopenko told news.com.au.

Prof Prokopenko said he did a quick calculation that scaled down the deaths in the UK and US to fit the size of the population of Australia.

He found if Australia had experienced the same rate of deaths as the UK, about 48,000 people would have died.

Instead, 915 people have died in Australia.

“So essentially what has been done so far has saved nearly 50,000 lives,” Prof Prokopenko said.

“This is something that people do not appreciate.”

It was a similar number when US figures were used. Prof Prokopenko said he looked at the figures in the UK and US because they had a similar socio-economic and demographic profile to Australia.

“Our policies so far on border closures, hotel quarantine and social distancing have saved us nearly 50,000 lives so people need to know these numbers,” he said.

“People think about the loss of their livelihoods and the financial stress and I understand that but going into financial stress for a month is probably little sacrifice to make when you think about 50,000 lives.”

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Australia’s strict border controls and lockdowns have saved almost 50,000 lives. Picture: Gaye Gerard/NCA Newswire

In the UK, there have been about 128,000 deaths among a population of around 66 million.

There was a similar proportion in the US, with 610,000 deaths among a population of 331 million.

Around 300 people are still dying every day in the US, and around 50 people are dying per day in the UK.

“We have capitalised on the remoteness of Australia as it’s easier to close our borders and maintain this throughout the pandemic,” Prof Prokopenko said.

“These decisions have saved lives, it’s as simple as that.”

Experts are hoping that Australia’s luck in keeping covid out continues as the Delta strain throws up a challenge that the country’s best contact tracing and lockdowns may not be able to overcome.

The next week in NSW will be crucial to see whether a strict lockdown introduced on Sunday can bring down cases, which have remained stubbornly high despite almost four weeks of stay-at-home orders.

“I wouldn’t call it hopeless at this stage but next week will be crucial,” Prof Prokopenko said.

“The current restrictions are very substantial, a lot of services are included – including retail and construction – which is a bold decision and I support that.

“How quickly we can turn the curve around is the question, I hope a week from now we’ll see the results.”

RELATED: Modelling shows how long Sydney lockdown could take to work

Pharmacies are one of the only retail stores still allowed to open. Picture: Jenny Evans/Getty Images)

Prof Prokopenko has done modelling for the University of Sydney that shows exactly how difficult it could be to get cases in Greater Sydney down below 10 a day.

The model measured mobility up until July 13 and found only 40 per cent of Sydney residents were staying home and reducing social interactions by one-tenth.

The modelling indicated this would need to go up to 80 per cent for at least a month before cases came down to below 10 a day.

As an example, Prof Prokopenko said if two people were living in a household, this could involve them limiting their trips outside the home to around three times a week, with only one person going out each time.

They would also need to reduce their social interactions while outside by wearing a mask, socially distancing and doing what they needed to do as quickly as possible. Exercise could be on top of this as long as they went out by themselves without any others in proximity, although this has not been specifically modelled.

Prof Prokopenko said his model showed how difficult it would be to bring Delta under control but while it was challenging, it was still achievable.

“At least there is a scenario to get out of it,” he said.

“If there was a more infectious variant there might not be a combination of these numbers to make it feasible.

“The real answer is vaccination – who wants to live under these conditions for a long time? “Anything else is just buying us time.

“We basically need to hold on until a significant proportion of the population, including children are vaccinated, there's no other way out.”

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