TV doctor Norman Swan says Russian soldiers, Ukrainians at risk of fresh Covid-19 outbreak

The ABC’s Dr Norman Swan has delivered a fresh take on the Russia-Ukraine war, but it hasn’t gone down too well.

The ABC’s Dr Norman Swan says Russian soldiers and Ukrainians are both at risk from more than war — warning of a fresh Covid-19 outbreak.

The two countries are in the midst of the most serious international conflict since Iraq after Russia last week executed long-held plans to invade its western neighbour under the guise of “special military operations”.

Disturbing scenes have followed, including shelling in Ukraine’s two largest cities. Hundreds of civilian casualties are being reported from the war zone amid condemnation of Russia’s actions from western nations.

As the world watches on in horror, the ABC’s resident coronavirus expert Dr Norman Swan says war is not the only thing Russians and Ukrainians should be worried about – and has drawn fierce criticism in the process.

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The ABC's Dr Norman Swan hosts the Coronacast podcast.

Speaking with the ABC’s Patricia Karvelas on RN on Monday, the host of the Coronacast podcast was asked whether the pandemic could worsen in Ukraine following Russia’s invasion.

“As if the invasion wasn’t enough on its own, there are warnings that Russia’s actions could lead to fresh outbreaks of Covid-19,” Karvelas said before introducing Dr Swan.

“Just 35 per cent of the population of Ukraine is fully vaccinated while case numbers remain high in Russia,” she said. “Could the invasion cause fresh outbreaks?”

Dr Swan replied: “Fresh outbreaks. New variants. Warfare is unfortunately through the centuries a recurrent theme in either making pandemics worse or creating them in the first place.”

He continued, saying the conditions of war make ordinary diseases much more serious.

“If this goes on a lot longer, where people are getting hungry, sanitation breaks down,” Dr Swan said.

“Covid may be the least of it, but you will certainly see an exacerbation of Covid-19, particularly in the elderly population of Ukraine.

A man walks in front of a destroyed building after a Russian missile attack in the town of Vasylkiv, near Kyiv, on February 27, 2022. Picture: Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP

“Even the Russians coming in are vulnerable too, because they’ve had the Russian vaccine which is of dubious protection. So you’ve got two populations coming together who are either under-immunised … or they’ve had an inadequate vaccine.

“And you’ve got the added complication of war, which always creates disease problems.

“Napoleon realised that in the 19th century — he was losing more people to disease than he was to warfare and he took action accordingly.”

He said there was a risk of other outbreaks including “diarrhoea and vomiting, gastroenteritis, spring viruses (like) influenza … pneumonia”.

“You could get kids dying of childhood diseases. It doesn’t bear thinking about how bad it could get with the usual diseases, much less Covid-19 going around in a vulnerable population.

“As people become malnourished if indeed they do, then in populations where Omicron might be relatively mild compared to Delta, it may not be mild. And you’ll see serious issues arising. And we may never find out how bad it has become because people will be dying at home.”

The Financial Review’s Michael Roddan wrote on Twitter: “Norman Swan on RN this morning saying Ukraine war will make Covid worse. Just doesn’t have the same vibe to it anymore.”

Norman Swan on RN this morning saying Ukraine war will make covid worse.

Just doesn't have the same vibe to it anymore

— Michael Roddan (@MichaelRoddan) February 27, 2022

2GB’s Ben Fordham wrote on Facebook: “Is Dr Norman Swan suffering from relevance deprivation syndrome?

“The ABC’s medical expert is now warning about Covid numbers in Ukraine.

“Dr Swan says that the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could lead to a spike in Covid cases and even new variants.”

Others shared similar views.

“The ABC’s Norman Swan is concerned about Covid & new variants in Ukraine. Yeah so are Ukrainians as they dodge missiles & gunfire,” one user wrote.

But many defended Dr Swan.

“Why do people take issue with Norman Swan stating the Ukraine invasion will make Covid worse?” one Twitter user wrote.

“WW1 made The Spanish flu worse. Clearly not the biggest problem in the region currently, but he’s an epidemiologist giving his view on his area of expertise.”

Another wrote that Dr Swan was simply talking about the topic he knows best.

“I’m sorry, given his expertise, did you want him to provide some analysis on troop movements, ballistic strength of particular antitank munitions and insurgency tactics?

“He’s a doctor talking about the pandemic (that’s still going on), get over it.”