Trump’s plan to repeal Obamacare could leave 59 million Americans uninsured

DONALD Trump’s plans to repeal Obamacare could leave nearly 59 million Americans without health insurance, leading to a “death spiral”.

President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to repeal Obamacare would risk making nearly 30 million people uninsured. Picture: AFP PHOTO / TIMOTHY A. CLARY

THE number of people in the United States without health insurance could more than double under President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to repeal Obamacare, a new study has revealed.

Nearly 59 million Americans would lack health insurance by 2019 if the Affordable Care Act is partially repealed by Congress, according to a new analysis published on Wednesday.

The worrying figure is more than double the current number without health coverage (28.9 million) and is equal to one in four Americans.

It would send the private insurance market into a “death spiral,” according to the Urban Institute study, which found the majority of those people affected would be white, working class and four out of five would be without a university education. Two-thirds live in a household with at least one person working full time.

The nation would also have a higher uninsured rate than when the ACA passed in March 2010, when the number stood at 50 million.

“This scenario does not just move the country back to the situation before the ACA,” the study says. “It moves the country to a situation with higher uninsurance rates than was the case before the ACA’s reforms.”

Under that scenario, according to the study, “the number of uninsured people would rise from 28.9 million to 58.7 million in 2019”.

“The share of non-elderly people without insurance would increase from 11 per cent to 21 per cent, a higher rate of uninsurance than before the ACA because of the disruption to the non-group insurance market.”

President Barack Obama’s signature health insurance program has provided 25 million previously uninsured Americans with health coverage by expanding Medicaid and through online exchanges where consumers can receive income-based subsidies.

Democrats have scoffed at Republican plans to replace Obamacare, saying they don’t have a clear plan. Picture: AFP/Mandel Ngan

The worrying prediction by the Urban Institute comes as President-elect Trump prepares to assume the presidency next month and as Republicans make plans to repeal Obamacare during the next session of Congress in 2017.

But, with neither of them having a concrete plan to replace Obamacare, scenarios have begun emerging should the law be at least partially repealed through so-called Congressional budgetary manoeuvres.

The US hospital industry issued a warning to Mr Trump and congressional leaders about eliminating the ACT without first crafting a “replacement”, saying it would create major hardships throughout the health care system.

Influential hospital lobbying groups laid out their concerns in letters sent to the President-elect this week, the Huffington Post reports.

The groups are demanding that legislation repealing the law and creating an alternative pass simultaneously, rather than delay the enacting of a new system for up to three years, as reports have indicated.

“Loses of the magnitude that we’re going to discuss cannot be sustained and will adversely impact patients access to care, decimate hospitals’ and health systems’ ability to provide services, weaken local economies that hospitals sustain and grow, and result in massive job losses,” said Tom Nickels, executive vice president for government relations and public policy said.

Repealing Obamacare will be the first order of business in the US Senate, come January. Picture: Sara D. Davis/Getty Images/AFP

To repeal Obamacare, congressional Republicans are expected to resort to a procedure known as budget reconciliation to get around Democrats in the senate, where rules protect the rights of the minority party.

Despite Republicans hoping Democrats would work with them, Senator Harry Reid, the outgoing Senate Democratic leader, dismissed the idea that they would be on board.

“I think that any hope that we’re going to buy into ruining health care in America, there’s not a chance of it,” he told Reuters.

US House Speaker Paul Ryan reiterated plans to repeal the ACA through budgetary action during an interview with CBS’ 60 Minutes on Sunday night. But he wouldn’t specify how it would be replaced or how long a transition to new coverage would take.

“What we know is we have to make good on this promise. We have to bring relief as fast as possible to people who are struggling under Obamacare,” he said.

When asked about maintaining an equal cost of coverage across genders — which had been an issue for many women before the ACA — he chose to discuss age instead.

“We believe that we should have support based on age. The sicker and the older you get, the more support you ought to get. If you’re a person that has low income, you probably should have more assistance than a person with high income, for example,” Mr Ryan said.

Since being elected in November, President-elect Trump has repeatedly vowed to sign legislation to “repeal and replace” the health law when he takes office next month.

Read the full Urban Institute report here.

President Barack Obama’s signature health insurance program is likely to be repealed. Picture: Photo/Carolyn Kaster