The rapid spread of coronavirus compared to SARS

Coronavirus has spread faster than SARS did when it was first discovered and the rapid infection rate has officials worried.

The staggering infection rate of the new coronavirus has shocked many who say it is spreading a lot faster than the deadly SARS outbreak.

The new coronavirus, called novel coronavirus, was first identified on January 7 after the World Health Organisation was informed about cases of pneumonia with an unknown cause on December 31.

In one month there have been 7711 confirmed cases of the coronavirus around the world.

In China alone, the new virus has now infected more people than got sick in 2002-2003 from SARS, which also originated in China.

On Wednesday, the number of cases in China jumped to 5974, surpassing the 5327 people diagnosed with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).

The numbers are also huge when looking at worldwide numbers.

In the first nine months of the SARS outbreak there were 8098 cases recorded around the world, compared to 7711 cases of coronavirus that have been confirmed in one month.

SARS was first recognised at the end of February 2003, with 8098 cases recorded between November 1, 2002 to July 31, 2003.

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Look how faster Corona Virus 🦠 is spreading compared to SARS... pic.twitter.com/XLCH1FSxaj

— KEEM 🍿 (@KEEMSTAR) January 29, 2020

“The difference between coronavirus and SARS is that SARS was not that infectious, it was transmitted mostly within hospitals,” Professor John McBride, of James Cook University, told news.com.au.

This made it easy to get on top of once authorities understood how it was being passed on.

“This new virus seems to be more community-spread, so it will be more difficult to contain and control without the control of the co-operation of the general public,” he said.

Australian Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Professor Paul Kelly told reporters that the coronavirus was being spread by “droplets” and it was not an airborne disease like measles.

These droplets are spread when people cough or sneeze but they rapidly die once they hit a surface. They can’t be transmitted over long distances.

He said people would be unlikely to contract the virus via casual contact.

“We are talking about close contact over a period of time,” he said.

He said some Australians were worried about contracting the virus from parcels being sent from China, or walking past someone who was sick.

But he said you could not get the disease from parcels and passing someone was “virtually totally safe”.

Prof Kelly said people with droplet infections generally only infected one or two extra people, unlike airborne diseases like measles that can spread to 10 people.

“It’s definitely not as transmissible or as dangerous as measles for example,” he said.

SOME ASPECTS ARE EXTREMELY WORRYING

The World Health Organisation said most cases coronavirus reported to date “have been milder, with around 20 per cent of those infected experiencing severe illness”.

Fortunately, the death toll for coronavirus, which now stands at 170 people, is lower than the 348 people who died in China of SARS.

The SARS virus killed about 10 per cent of people who caught it, much higher than the estimated 2 per cent death rate from coronavirus, although this figure is still very preliminary.

World Health Organisation’s emergencies chief Dr Michael Ryan said with the fluctuating numbers of cases and deaths, scientists are only able to produce a rough estimate of the fatality rate and it’s likely many milder cases of the virus are being missed.

The coronavirus family includes the common cold as well as viruses that cause more serious illnesses, such as the SARS outbreak and Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome, or MERS, which is thought to have originated from camels.

Dr Ryan spoke at a news conference after returning from a trip to Beijing and said there were several aspects of the new virus outbreak that are extremely worrying, citing the recent rapid spike in cases in China.

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He said that while scientists believe the outbreak was sparked by an animal virus, it’s unclear if there are other factors driving the epidemic.

“Without understanding that, it’s very hard to put into context the current transmission dynamics,” he said.

The fact that coronavirus is now spreading between people outside of China is also concerning world health officials.

Dr Ryan said the few cases of human-to-human spread of the virus outside China – in Japan, Germany, Canada and Vietnam – were part of the reason the UN health agency’s director-general has reconvened an expert committee to meet Thursday.

It will assess whether the outbreak should be declared a global emergency.

Airlines around the world have announced they are cancelling flights to China, and Hong Kong has suspended rail travel to and from the mainland.

There is also debate over whether the virus can be spread before symptoms appear.

People wearing protective masks wait in line to make their purchase at a grocery store in a shopping mall on January 29 in Hong Kong. Picture: Anthony Kwan/Getty Images)

Although the Chinese health minister and others have suggested that the virus is spreading before people get symptoms, data to confirm that has not yet been shared widely beyond China.

“It’s still unclear whether that takes place,” said Malik Peiris, chair in virology at the University of Hong Kong.

“The fortunate thing about SARS, if there was anything fortunate, was that transmission did not take place before symptoms,” he said.

If it turns out that the new coronavirus can indeed be spread by people who don’t show any symptoms, “a pandemic is a scenario that we have to consider.”

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