Daily Covid deaths in UK could double in 10 days reaching 900 by New Year, scientists warn

COVID deaths could reach 900 a day in the UK by January 1, experts warned, as the mutant strain spreads to six countries including Australia.

Terminal 2 of Heathrow Airport in west London as a string of countries around the world banned travellers arriving from the UK, due to the rapid spread of a new, more-infectious coronavirus strain. Picture: Niklas Halle'n / AFP

COVID deaths could reach 900 a day in the UK by January 1, experts have warned.

Scientists at the University of Cambridge claim that by the New Year the daily death toll could be between 619 and 899.

The figures are estimates and are based on models produced by he MRC Biostatistics Unit which forecasts coronavirus deaths and infections.

Their worst-case scenario of 899 daily deaths is nearly double the current Government figures, which state that at present there are 461.7 deaths a day.

The estimates come after Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced at the weekend that London, the South East and parts of the East of England would enter into tough Tier 4 restrictions.

The new restrictions resemble the second national lockdown in November, with non-essential shops closed along with hospitality and gyms.

The Cambridge experts estimate that in England, the current daily number of new infections is 91,000.

But data released by the government today states that across the UK there have been just 33,364 new infections and 215 deaths in the last 24 hours.

Data from the government states that a total of 2,073,511 cases have now been recorded across the UK with today’s number of daily infections the fourth highest.

The new figures come after daily deaths and infections doubled in just a week yesterday with cases recording the highest rise ever as 35,928 infections and 326 deaths were recorded.

And this time last week, another 20,263 cases were recorded alongside 232 deaths.

Showing the worrying rise, two weeks ago 14,718 new cases were reported while another 172 deaths were recorded in 24 hours.

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A prediction of the total daily deaths that could be seen by January. The red dots show deaths, while the black line shows how they could rise in the next few weeks. Picture: MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge

The UK has been branded a “disaster” as a mutant strain of the coronavirus caused chaos and 40 countries placed bans on British flights.

The new strain, thought to be up to 70 per cent more infectious than the original, was first detected in London earlier this month and has now been identified in at least six other territories around the world.

The strain’s alarming spread prompted Prime Minister Boris Johnson over the weekend to scale back the relaxation of lockdown measures over Christmas for millions across the UK.

Speaking from Downing Street, he said scientists are “learning more about this variant” as they go, but that it was “now spreading very fast”.

Tier four restrictions have now been imposed across the southeast, south, and east of England, with a travel ban enforced and residents told not to leave their homes unless absolutely necessary.

The news prompted alarm around the world, with dozens of countries imposing a ban on flights from the UK.

France’s Le Monde newspaper said the strain “concludes a disaster year for the United Kingdom”, while Belgium’s HLN paper said that “chaos looms” for the country.

At least 17 countries across Europe — including France, Germany, and Ireland — have imposed bans, as have Canada, India, Russia, Israel, and numerous other countries globally.

The US is yet to follow suit, but speaking today Assistant Secretary for Health Brett Giroir said that “everything [is] on the table”.

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Picture: Tolga Akmen/WPA Pool/Getty Images

The ban in Germany left more than 60 Brits stranded and sleeping on camp beds at an airport in Hanover while screening was carried out.

France has also closed its borders to freight lorries from the UK for 48 hours, a move that it is feared could have a “devastating” effect on the supply of food and other goods in Britain.

The French say they are working on a plan to get lorries moving later tonight.

The new strain is confirmed to have spread to at least five other places — Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Gibraltar, and Australia — but officials have said it is likely to already be circulating in elsewhere.

There have been unverified reports of confirmed cases in Belgium.

Scientists have said that the new mutation — dubbed N510Y — was first identified in Brazil more than eight months ago, but is now spreading faster as part of a “constellation of multiple mutations”.

Speaking to the Telegraph, Professor Peter Horby, chairman of the government’s Nervtag advisory committee, said: “When you put virus mutations together, the combination can have a different effect.”

It has also been said that the new strain has only been identified because of the work being done in the UK to trek variations of the virus as it moves through the population.