Coronavirus Victoria: Only one week left before face masks won’t stop virus spread

A top epidemiologist has warned Victoria has just one week for masks to make a difference in the second wave of virus infections.

Australia’s real-time experiment with whether masks can stop the spread of COVID-19 should be determined by Sunday according to one of the nation’s leading epidemiologists leading the fight against the virus.

Melbourne University’s Tony Blakely has told news.com.au that’s when the impact of wearing masks should become evident in the available data.

If the number of COVID-19 cases are not dropping by the weekend, he’s warned Victoria has “a big problem”.

“As of today we are in the seventh day of wearing masks. But the numbers will start to turn. I am hopeful, not confident, the numbers will start to reduce as a result of mask use,’’ Prof Blakely said.

“Out there in the real world it will be happening about now. But by the time we get those figures probably by Sunday. By this time next week, we will hopefully have nice, clear evidence that the mask strategy is working.

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By next week Victorians will know if the use of masks has made a difference in curbing the coronavirus outbreak. Picture: Ian Currie/NCA NewsWire

“It takes about 10 days before you see the effect of an intervention put in place.The case numbers should be starting to turn and if they don’t we’ve got problems.”

Melbourne’s six-week lockdown commenced on July 8, but to date the number of COVID-19 cases has not reduced, sparking alarm that the tough measures aren’t working.

It was a record high of 191 cases on July 7 that sparked the second lockdown, but those numbers have continued to rise with Victoria recording its worst day yet of 532 cases on Monday.

Within Victoria, 154 of the new cases are linked to outbreaks or complex cases and 378 are under investigation. Over 3000 cases in Victoria have not been linked to a known case suggesting widespread community transmission.

The good news is those numbers have fallen sharply today to 384 cases.

The critical decision to introduce the mandatory use of masks became law on July 23, with residents risking a $200 fine if they go outside without a face covering.

Victorian Premier Dan Andrews has given no end date for the mandatory wearing of masks – if the evidence emerges they are bringing down the number of cases.

“I think masks are going to be a feature not just of this second wave, but they will be a feature of preventing a third wave and everything that comes after that,” Mr Andrews said.

“You will still be expected to carry your face covering at all times to wear when you can.

“It’s far too early for us to speculate on when masks will no longer be required.

“What I can say is they’ll be required so long as they can make a difference.”

Professor Blakely said it was a concern that thousands of COVID cases in Melbourne remain unsolved with no clear links with other cases.

“But the concept is breaking down a bit, because we have a full-blown outbreak,’’ he said.

“The numbers are large. They’ve just been overwhelmed.”

He urged the Victorian Government to start releasing better data on how fast contact tracers are making links with other cases and the turnaround on test results.

“Rather than Dan Andrews getting up and berating Melburnians, why are we not getting daily information about how the systems are performing?’’ he said.

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Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews and chief health officer Brett Sutton. Picture: Ian Currie/NCA NewsWire

“What I want to see next week is a system where the public can get more information on how good the testing is, how good the contact tracing is. So we can all watch that process towards elimination. Now is the time to needle away for that information.”

But he said there were still risks with people not using masks properly.

“What’s happening now is the outbreak has moved to essential workers who are still getting out and about in the community,’’ he said.

“So the concern then moves to people taking off their masks to have a coffee and so on.”

Professor Blakely has called for the Victorian Government to consider tougher measures including, closing all schools, tightening the definition of essential shops that can remain open, tightening the definition of essential workers and essential businesses, and restricting travel only to essential businesses.

If Victoria doesn’t pursue an elimination strategy, he has warned the virus could continue to “yoyo” for months.