Coronavirus: Experts slam calls for lockdown to be reversed in Australia, but loosening some restrictions may be possible
An Australian think tank has been slammed after calling for an end to Australia’s lockdown but experts believe it’s time to relax restrictions.
A video from the Institute of Public Affairs calling for an end to lockdowns is being mocked on social media but there is a growing call for Australia to reconsider its current restrictions.
In the footage, posted to the conservative think tank’s social media accounts, policy director Gideon Rozner calls for the “sensible” reopening of churches, restaurants, cafes, bars and community sport.
“Our response to the coronavirus outbreak has decimated our society, ruined thousands of lives, turned Australia into a police state and, worst of all, put hundreds of thousands of Australians out of work,” Rozner says.
He says it is time for state and federal governments to come up with a plan on how to win the lockdown and let people rebuild their lives.
“Do it safely with appropriate social distancing measures in place, but do it now, not in six months, not in one month. Now, because Australians were not meant to live like this, and we cannot allow this to go on any longer,” he says.
“Enough is enough. It is time to begin to end this lockdown now.”
📺 NEW VIDEO: @GideonCRozner explains why the efforts by state and federal governments to control the health crisis created by the #covid19au outbreak risks creating as much bigger economic and humanitarian crisis. We must begin to end this lockdown now. pic.twitter.com/5q3gXzgZuP
— Institute of Public Affairs (@TheIPA) April 3, 2020
Many have condemned the footage from the free-market group, saying it would endanger people’s lives.
“Are you are satirical performer of some kind? Or just a complete imbecile? Shut up, and stop endangering lives, you clown. In a suit,” actor Sam Neill tweeted.
Sydney law professor Tim Stephens said Twitter should remove the post as it jeopardised public health.
That’s not an argument. You’re just saying you want things to go back to normal so they should. It’s moronic.
— Briony Kidd (@BrionyKidd) April 4, 2020
Do you want us open by Easter, Gideon? 🙄
— Covida Loca (@Bachtobacharach) April 3, 2020
did you guys run this one past any epidemiologists or public health experts first, or is it more of just a ‘vibe’ thing?
— Tom Rabe (@Rabe9) April 4, 2020
The IPA is not the only group sceptical about whether Australia’s restrictions should be relaxed. In an opinion piece on the weekend, The Australian’s commercial editor Steve Waterson also questioned the “ridiculous restraints” being implemented by “hysterical” governments.
Australian National University infectious diseases physician Peter Collignon also believes the restrictions in NSW and Victoria have gone too far.
“Not letting people go outside and sit on a park bench, for instance; how will that stop transmission?” he told the ABC this morning.
However, Prof Collignon doesn’t think Australia should reopen pubs, clubs, bars or dine-in restaurants until September or October at least.
You only need to look at what’s happening in Italy or New York to understand why.
Italy, which has a population more than double Australia’s, saw its health system overwhelmed after the virus spread through its community. It has recorded about 124,000 cases so far and 15,000 deaths. Hundreds of people are still dying every day even after a months-long lockdown.
In comparison, Australia has recorded about 5700 cases and 40 deaths, with the number of new cases declining.
In New York State, home to about 20 million people — less than Australia’s population of 25 million — there have been nearly 4200 deaths.
“If we just open the doors and went back to normal it would be an ugly zone,” University of Melbourne epidemiologist Tony Blakely told news.com.au.
“We would be in Italy’s zone and New York’s zone where their health resources are overstretched. It’s a dumb idea.”
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Letting the coronavirus spread among the community is dangerous because there is no immunity within the population so more people are likely to get sick. This drives up the death rate because hospitals become overwhelmed with patients and there are not enough ventilators or intensive care unit beds.
“I can’t see us opening pubs and cafes again until we get a vaccine (in about 18 months),” Prof Blakely said.
“I can’t quite see that working but I could be wrong.”
However, Prof Blakely said he wasn’t surprised by the IPA’s push for an end to the lockdown.
“These are extraordinary times and the government has been taking action without parliamentary oversight because they needed to move fast,” he said.
He said public health officials, the public and government should be congratulated for the response and the speed at which it has brought down new cases, but the new question was “now what?”.
WHAT SHOULD WE DO?
Prof Blakely believes it is time to think about Australia’s response to the coronavirus now that new infections seemed to be under control.
He said those who were advocating for a return to normal as soon as possible deserved to be heard as the economic and health implications of a drawn-out lockdown would be severe.
Prof Blakely believes there are three options Australia could consider but none of them were easy.
First, it could still try to achieve a full elimination of the virus but this would involve even stricter lockdown restrictions being enforced for between six weeks to three months, and Prof Blakely is sceptical it could be achieved.
The second option is to “squash the curve”, which means the community lives with social distancing restrictions, similar to what we have now, until a vaccine is developed, which could be 18 months or longer away.
Prof Blakely believes the quickest way for Australians to get back to their old way of living was to adopt option three: flatten the curve to herd immunity.
This option would still take about six months to achieve, depending on how risky governments were prepared to be. It would involve allowing people to slowly get infected until about 60 per cent of the population had coronavirus, at which point there would be “herd immunity” and it would be much harder for the virus to spread.
This option would see more people die but Prof Blakely said if certain measures were taken to protect the vulnerable, the number of deaths could be brought down to about 30,000, which is only 50 per cent greater than the number of tobacco-related deaths each year.
Prof Blakely believes it is time for a public discussion on the path Australia should take and this should involve not just politicians but also epidemiologists, economists, philosophers and ethicists.
Modelling the Federal Government is using to inform its decision making is due to be released tomorrow. Prof Blakely said this would be critical in understanding the implications of the different options and what would happen if certain restrictions were eased.
Originally published as Coronavirus: Experts slam calls for lockdown to be reversed in Australia, but loosening some restrictions may be possible
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