Coronavirus cases in Australia same as Italy’s two weeks ago as doctors warn outbreak ‘cannot be stopped’

As the coronavirus death toll in Italy skyrockets to 631, Australia now has the same number of confirmed infections as the hard-hit country just two weeks ago.

Doctors have warned that “we cannot stop a further outbreak” of the new coronavirus and the focus now must be on “flattening the curve” of new infections to give the health system time to prepare.

Australia now has 116 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and there are fears that number could reach thousands within weeks, based on experience in other countries where cases have doubled every six days.

As a growing number of schools and university campuses are closed and concerts and other public gatherings cancelled by organisers, experts say Italian-style quarantine measures may soon be required to prevent widespread community transmission.

“We cannot stop a further outbreak,” Melbourne GP Dr Vyom Sharma told Today.

“That’s not even the language to use here. The virus is going to spread. It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when. Our aim is to stop or reduce the transmission as much as we can. The phrase we are using to describe that is to flatten the curve. We are trying to reduce the number of cases that are transmitted by the virus … but also we are trying to elongate the amount of time over which the population catches the virus so we don’t completely overwhelm the health system.”

Dr Sharma said far more testing was required – the government last night announced 100 pop-up clinics able to test 7000 people a day would be established – to be able to determine when more drastic measures should be taken. “There are big things we can do as a society to stop this transmission, but when do we start doing them? To know that we need to be testing a lot of people,” he said.

READ MORE: Follow the latest coronavirus updates and death toll

Current measures involving quarantining and contact tracing were “useful now, but there is going to come a point in time where it’s not going to be enough,” he said.

“The biggest measure is going to be social distancing, which is discouraging and closing down large cultural and sporting events, schools, public transport, people working from home. It’s tricky to know when to do that. The time will be when there is widespread community transmission. Now, we don’t think that’s happening right now, but to be sure we need to do a lot of testing.”

He raised concerns that the $2.4 billion coronavirus package would not be rolled out quickly enough.

“That’s the race with these 100 clinics, how quickly can we start testing? This is one of the concerns I have with the package. There is no idea of time frame. Minister Greg Hunt was asked about this yesterday and said weeks. We can’t wait eight or six weeks. It will be a test of our bureaucracy, how much can we overcome inertia and get this happening.”

Dr Andrew Miller, West Australian President of the Australian Medical Association, has said serious consideration should soon be given to banning mass gatherings and closing all schools to stop the spread of the coronavirus, echoing comments by a Sydney emergency department worker who yesterday called for widespread quarantines.

“Because although a small percentage of people will get sick with the disease, when that happens at once it’s like all your diners for the entire month turning up to your restaurant at six on Friday night,” he told Today.

“The kitchen can’t handle it. So we are preparing the kitchen, we are making it bigger and we need the customers to be spread out.”

A passenger wearing a protective mask leaves Venice Santa Lucia Station to Rome as the country goes into lockdown. Picture: Marco Di Lauro/Getty Images

He has warned that just 16 days ago Italy had the same number of confirmed cases as Australia does now.

Italy reported another 168 deaths on Tuesday, bringing the death toll to 631 and more than 10,000 confirmed cases.

“Well, hopefully (a similar scale outbreak) won’t be in two weeks,” Dr Miller said.

“Something has happened there that has made it accelerate really fast. The countries that are between us an Italy are the ones to watch – Spain, France, Korea, Japan. They are all about halfway between us and Italy at the moment so we need to watch them and see how rapidly it is evolving in their environment.”

2/ First, Lumbardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country.

— Jason Van Schoor (@jasonvanschoor) March 9, 2020

4/ We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.

— Jason Van Schoor (@jasonvanschoor) March 9, 2020

6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.

— Jason Van Schoor (@jasonvanschoor) March 9, 2020

8/ 1)A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ED but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panick
2)Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ED is significantly reduced so everything looks great

— Jason Van Schoor (@jasonvanschoor) March 9, 2020

10/ Everything about how to treat them is online but the only things that will make a difference are: do not be afraid of massively strict measures to keep people safe,

— Jason Van Schoor (@jasonvanschoor) March 9, 2020

12/ Another typical attitude is read and listen to people saying things like this and think “that’s bad dude” and then go out for dinner because you think you’ll be safe.

— Jason Van Schoor (@jasonvanschoor) March 9, 2020

Dr Miller said “hopefully it will be in two months or longer but we do have to be prepared in pretty short order, because if it comes upon us we need the army to be ready,” adding that he meant “frontline healthcare workers”.

“There is no reason to believe that we can forever stall what is happening in other countries. The virus is not racist and it moves through communities pretty much the same way everywhere as far as we have seen,” he said.

“I’m optimistic that we will be able to slow this down but people do need to take this very seriously. We don’t think we are panicking people about warning them about bushfires. We are telling them to act and prepare at the appropriate times. What will cause panic is if people don’t realise that unfortunately our country is not immune.”

Dr Miller said the Government’s pop-up clinics “need to be up and operational very soon”. “That is all about flushing this out now, seeing how many cases we really have,” he said.

Hospital staff simulate a drive through coronavirus testing at the Repatriation Hospital in Adelaide on Tuesday. Picture: David Mariuz/AAP

“We have only been testing travellers from medium and high-risk countries up until this point so we are not sure where else it might be in the community. It is not about frightening people. It is going to be OK. Australia can handle this but the way to handle it the best is to have doctors and nurses ready, supported, feeling like the Government has their back. But the community needs to prepare for their contribution and their contribution is going to be to slow down the illness. To slow it down is going to mean changes in lifestyle.”

NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard on Monday said rolling school closures were “likely to be the new norm” whenever a new case was detected, while Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews yesterday flagged the possibility of widespread school closures.

Dr Miller said closing all schools “needs to be on the table”.

“Kids don’t get particularly sick with the virus but they are really good at spreading it because they are disgusting – that’s how they live,” he said. “They then take it around to all the other families. That’s one of the fastest ways probably we think that it can travel.”