What you need to know about the New England by-election

SATURDAY’S by-election in Barnaby Joyce’s seat is being talked about as though it’s a done deal, but an expert is predicting it may not be such smooth sailing for the former Kiwi.

Former Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce is expected or reclaim his seat after Saturday’s New England by-election. Picture: Tracey Nearmy/AAP Barnaby expected to win by-election

AN ELECTION that could bring down a federal government usually only comes along every three years, but even though there’s been very little fuss made of it, that’s exactly what’s going on this weekend.

Casual political watchers would be forgiven for not even knowing about the by-election that could strip the Turnbull Government of its majority which is taking place in the regional NSW electorate of New England on Saturday.

When New Englanders cast their votes at the ballot box on Saturday, they’ll be deciding the fate of the government’s second-highest ranked representative and leader of the Nationals Party, Barnaby Joyce, and with him, the Coalition’s fragile majority.

WHY IT’S HAPPENING

The critical by-election comes after the sidelined deputy prime minister was booted from parliament over his surprise dual citizenship status.

The dinky-di Nationals MP revealed to parliament his father was born in New Zealand, and that Kiwi laws meant he was made a citizen by descent.

The High Court decided in October he had been ineligible to be elected to parliament, and so he’s gone and renounced his NZ citizenship and started again.

The dejected Deputy PM found out he was a dual citizen back in August. Picture: Stefan Postles/Getty Images

WHO’S RUNNING

Mr Joyce has comfortably held the regional seat of New England since 2013 when he switched to the lower house after spending nine years as a Senator for Queensland.

In the last federal election in 2016, he won the seat with 58.5 per cent of the two-party preferred vote against nine other candidates.

Though Mr Joyce is the hands-down favourite to win the vote, he is running against 16 independent and minor party candidates who are hoping locals will punish the embattled Turnbull government by voting against him.

Saturday’s by-election was initially thought to be two-horse race between Mr Joyce and the independent former MP who Joyce snatched the seat from — Tony Windsor.

Former New England MP Windsor, once Mr Joyce’s greatest rival, isn’t running but has endorsed Mr Mailler, the Greens’ Peter Wills and independent candidate Rob Taber.

Another major runner is Labor candidate David Ewings, who has said Mr Joyce and the Liberal-National government has “let down” local residents when it comes to “adequately funding local health services”.

WHAT THE ISSUES ARE

Mr Joyce says New England voters want “jobs, cheap and reliable energy and infrastructure projects”, and insists he’s the man to argue for them in the party room if he’s returned to Canberra.

“Spending the last few weeks getting back to grassroots politics has given me a fresh outlook if I’m lucky enough to be returned,” he said.

Labor candidate David Ewings is trying to steal Barnaby’s seat, and his style. Picture: Tracey Nearmy/AAP

The former deputy PM’s decision to avoid some public forums and interviews has led rivals to accuse him of taking the electorate for granted and campaigning very quietly.

But Mr Joyce argues he’s appeared numerous times in local and national media, has been open to debating other candidates, and has been readily available for a chat on the streets of New England.

“When you get around to these communities I can assure you none of them ask ‘Why didn’t you bring a big media contingency with you?’,” he said. “People appreciate access to ask questions in a more personal setting rather than just in a community forum where they have to listen to a bunch of out-of- towner candidates talk for three hours.”

CAMPAIGN HIGHS AND LOWS

With the quiet media campaign leading up to Saturday’s poll, there hasn’t been as many opportunities for candidates to stitch themselves up on the campaign trail as in a regular general election.

Even still, Mr Joyce’s campaign has been dogged by confrontation and the occasional controversy.

He was forced to “politely declined” a $40,000 prize for his agricultural efforts after it was awarded by mining magnate Gina Rinehart.

A bullet and a death threat were reportedly sent to his office earlier this month and, this week, he avoided a pub punch-up when he was confronted by a man while visiting Glen Innes and again at Inverell.

The vote also comes amid tensions within the Coalition government with Nationals questioning the Prime Minister’s leadership.

Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison on Friday was asked if Mr Joyce’s expected win would help quieten National Party agitators within the coalition.

“What it will do is confirm the Turnbull government ... and it’ll be a rejection of Bill Shorten and his dark vision for Australia’s economy,” he told ABC radio.

Former Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce has an army of supporters in his electorate. Picture: Tracey Nearmy/AAP

WHAT’S LIKELY TO HAPPEN

Mr Joyce is expect to be welcomed back into federal parliament after the vote, with polls tipping a big win for the former MP.

Election analyst Kevin Bonham told AAP the race might not be so clear cut, and.

“Some people will have divided loyalties,” Dr Bonham said.

“People may want to punish the government but not Joyce.

Dr Bonham says the high number of candidates could reduce Mr Joyce’s primary vote considerably, and delay his victory celebrations.

“There’s a lot of feeling the Nationals are soft,” he said. “There are a lot of people placing themselves as a new voice for the bush.”

Though it’s widely accepted that Mr Joyce will be re-elected, if the seat does fall to one of his less high-profile candidates, the government could be in trouble.

Mr Turnbull has a majority of just one seat in the house of representatives.

Mr Joyce is the only government MP so far to lose his seat in the lower house over the dual citizenship issue that has also seen eight other politicians struck down by the fiasco.