What the Queensland election result means for Malcolm Turnbull

A CLEAR message sent last night will be felt across the country. And federal leaders from Malcolm Turnbull to Pauline Hanson should listen.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk is greeted by supporters.

QUEENSLANDERS have sent a strong message to Canberra parliamentarians, and it’s reminiscent of a line famously touted by one of the state election’s biggest losers: We don’t like it.

Ahead of polls closing in Saturday’s vote, former Labor premier Peter Beattie suggested that whichever way Queensland voters swung, the result would be felt far beyond the northern state’s borders.

“If it’s a swing against (the Liberal National Party), it’ll be a boost to Labor’s stock and a boost to (Opposition Leader Bill) Shorten’s stock, and a warning to Malcolm Turnbull,” he said.

Though Queensland state elections are notoriously tough to predict, that’s exactly what happened, and the result is surely beginning to be felt in Canberra.

As counting was suspended late on Saturday night, the result was too close to call, but it was clear the Liberal National Party was out of favour.

Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said she was confident of reaching the magic number of 47 seats to claim a majority government.

While he didn’t admit defeat, LNP leader Tim Nicholls admitted his party was in no position to claim a majority government, and his lengthy speech sounded suspiciously like a concession.

The count currently sits at 42 seats to Labor and 36 to the LNP. Considering preferences, a final tally may not be known until the end of the week but the count is expected to fall in the Labor Government’s favour.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk thanks supporters at the Oxley Golf Club during the 2017 Queensland State Election in Brisbane.

Queensland Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls arrives at the LNP Election function.

The scene state and federal politicians are waking up to this morning is not too different from what happened after Queensland’s last state election almost three years ago.

The poll delivered a shock win to Labor that not even the most optimistic supporter had predicted, and the effect on the federal Coalition government was immediate.

That vote ended up being instrumental to then prime minister Tony Abbott’s removal.

The Liberal PM was sitting on an approval rating of just 27 per cent, and the extraordinary swing against the LNP in Queensland was believed to not only be a revenge attack on the state’s brutal Newman Government, but its affiliated party’s federal leader as well.

Fast forward to 2017 and there’s a different leader in the top job, but the situation is familiar.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s government is in turmoil, and his personal approval continues to slide.

As Mr Nicholls tried to court support in Queensland, the federal Coalition government was gripped by chaos thanks to the dual citizenship saga threatening its majority and a confused same-sex marriage campaign.

The troubled Prime Minister made only one brief and token appearance during the month-long Queensland campaign at its LNP launch a week ago today.

While Mr Nicholls appeared keen to minimise the damage and avoid association with the Turnbull Government, his opponent Ms Palaszczuk drew on its chaos at every opportunity.

When she continually said in the campaign’s final weeks that Queenslanders had a choice between “stable government” and “cuts and chaos”, it became clear she wasn’t just talking about the threat of the Queensland LNP.

The night proves to be a fizzer for One Nation leader Senator Pauline Hanson.

With about two thirds of the total votes counted, the LNP has suffered a significant swing and though Mr Nicholls has claimed his north Brisbane seat of Clayfield, the leader also lost ground there and is anticipated to face a leadership challenge in coming weeks.

Another factor that will clearly be felt in Canberra’s corridors of power is the fizzer that was the One Nation vote.

The party’s matriarch Senator Pauline Hanson had predicted Saturday’s poll would mark the party’s resurgence in Queensland and send “shockwaves” nationwide.

But it looks like the rogue minor party will walk away without a single seat.

One Nation’s Queensland leader Steve Dickson lost the Sunshine Coast seat of Buderim to his LNP opponent and ousted senator Malcolm Roberts failed to steal Ipswich — which Senator Hanson has long claimed as One Nation’s heartland — from Labor.

Even in the state’s regional north where the party was polling ahead of the LNP and Labor in some seats, One Nation candidates are unlikely to get up.