US election: What will COVID-19 pandemic mean for November 3 vote?

America’s top expert on the coronavirus has made a deeply worrying prediction as the country wrestles with its upcoming election.

Gavin Fernando

5 min read

July 2, 2020 - 12:55PM

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The United States is fighting a losing battle against coronavirus.

The country’s death toll currently sits at 130,000, with a quarter of the world’s cases, despite only having four per cent of the world’s population.

To make matters worse, the country’s top infectious diseases expert Dr Anthony Fauci has warned it could end up with over 100,000 new cases per day, as it begins to transition out of lockdown.

With the presidential election looming in November, several regions in crisis and two leaders with very different views on the matter, things are only going to get messier over the next five months.

‘US COULD HAVE 100,000 CASES A DAY’

Dr Fauci said he would “not be surprised” if new virus cases in the United States reached 100,000 per day.

“Clearly we are not in control right now,” he told a Senate hearing, noting that many Americans were not distancing themselves or wearing masks.

“We’re now having 40-plus thousand new cases a day. I would not be surprised if we go up to 100,000 a day if this does not turn around, and so I’m very concerned.”

Top disease expert Dr Anthony Fauci has said ‘clearly we are not in control’ and warned new infections in the US could reach 100,000 per day. Picture: Al Drago/AFP

He criticised states for “skipping over” benchmarks required for reopening, warning that cases would rise.

“I can’t make an accurate prediction, but it is going to be very disturbing, I will guarantee you that,” he told Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat.

“Because when you have an outbreak in one part of the country even though in other parts of the country they’re doing well, they are vulnerable.”

“We can’t just focus on those areas that are having the surge. It puts the entire country at risk,” he said.

The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the US currently stands at 2.7 million.

HOW VIRUS HAS AFFECTED PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed everything for the upcoming US election.

The candidates have been urged to cancel their rallies. The public is distracted. Voters are afraid to go out and cast their ballots in person.

The Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, has announced he will not hold presidential campaign rallies during the pandemic, describing the current climate as “the most unusual campaign in modern history”.

Joe Biden has announced he will not hold presidential campaign rallies during the pandemic. Picture: Brendan Smialowski/AFP

Donald Trump, in stark contrast, has already held two rallies – but his supporters were asked to sign a waiver in advance, absolving his team of any liability if they caught the virus.

Fear of the disease may have contributed to the low turnout at Mr Trump’s opening rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The President had boasted that more than a million people requested tickets for the rally, but only 6200 supporters showed up.

Mr Trump’s re-election hopes rest on good economic performance, but the pandemic – and subsequent lockdowns – have seen the US economy take a battering.

The first-quarter economic growth rate has not shown the full impact of the crisis, but the second quarter, which is always more important in an election year, is likely to show a massive plunge in US output due to coronavirus lockdown measures.

The coronavirus pandemic has just hit 130,000 deaths in the US. Picture: Spencer Platt/Getty Images/AFP

Unemployment in the US reached an 14.7 per cent in April, with 20 million jobs lost that month.

The economy has since slightly recovered, though unemployment does remain historically high.

With all 50 states now easing quarantine restrictions, it’s likely that the economy will continue to improve. But experts say this will come at a great cost.

WILL THE ELECTION BE CANCELLED?

In short, no.

While elections can, in theory, be postponed, the exact date is established by Congress, and can only be changed by Congress. The President does not have the power to change the date himself.

The date is typically slated for the Tuesday after the first Monday of November every four years. In this case, that would be November 3, 2020.

The election will be going ahead unless Congress changes it. Picture: Saul Loeb/AFP

Regardless of all this, Mr Trump’s term as President will expire on 20 January, 2021, exactly four years after his inauguration, as will that of Vice President Mike Pence.

All in all, it’s barely even a point worth considering, given the extreme likelihood that the election will go ahead in November.

Put it this way: An election has never been postponed in American history, not even during the Civil War.

A POSSIBLE SOLUTION

The pandemic has instilled voting fears across the board. A lot of people will not feel confident going out and voting in the middle of a viral pandemic – and quite justifiably so.

A seemingly obvious solution would be voting by mail, or electronically, but there is huge debate over this between the two sides.

Mr Trump and other Republicans have repeatedly expressed fear that mail voting will give rise to widespread voter fraud.

In May, the President tweeted that it would be a “tragedy” that would “lead to the end of our great Republican Party”.

MAIL-IN VOTING WILL LEAD TO MASSIVE FRAUD AND ABUSE. IT WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE END OF OUR GREAT REPUBLICAN PARTY. WE CAN NEVER LET THIS TRAGEDY BEFALL OUR NATION. BIG MAIL-IN VICTORY IN TEXAS COURT TODAY. CONGRATS!!!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 29, 2020

When the Democrats attempted to include $US4 billion in a coronavirus relief bill to safeguard the November election, Mr Trump said it was “crazy”.

“They had things, levels of voting that if you’d ever agreed to it, you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again,” he said.

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The Democrats, in turn, argue that forcing voters to choose between their democratic right to vote and their health is a form of “voter suppression”.

“The President is apparently willing to expose voters to the deadly COVID-19 for purely partisan political advantage,” said Zoe Logfren, a Democratic representative for California who spearheaded the campaign to include provisions in the relief bill.

There is still huge debate over the prospect of making mail voting more accessible across the country. Picture: Robyn Beck/AFP

Research suggests mail voting would produce a near-negligible number of corrupt votes.

A recent Washington Post analysis of data collected by three vote-by-mail states found that there were only 372 possible cases of double voting or voting on behalf of deceased people out of about 14.6 million votes cast by mail in the 2016 and 2018 general elections.

This equated to just 0.0025 per cent of the population.

A similar analysis by The Hill, focusing on the state of Oregon, put the rate of mail fraud at 0.000004 per cent – making a fraudulent ballot about five times less likely than getting hit by lightning in the US.

A report by the Brennan Centre for Justice put the rate at between 0.0003 per cent and 0.0025 per cent.

With very real fears of another spike in cases, we’ll just have to wait and see what America makes of its own election.

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